Hi everyone, I’m Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout, the Virginia elections. This episode we will go over a vibe shift that has seemed to have happened with the redistricting referendum here in Virginia. And then I also wanted to talk a little bit about the potential areas to look for in terms of, you know, the important swing counties in this election. So the first thing I want to talk about is really just this vibe shift that has seemed to have happened in the past week or two weeks.

00:26.90

Sam Shirazi

I think at the beginning, there was a sense that on the no campaign, there was some momentum. The initial early vote numbers look pretty good in terms of more red parts of Virginia coming out.

00:39.13

Sam Shirazi

And I think there was a sense that, you know, and I had talked about this, that this referendum was not necessarily a a slam dunk. Virginia was not California. There were a lot of independents. So I think, you know, there was a sense that this was not necessarily a done deal in Virginia.

00:56.34

Sam Shirazi

And while I think that’s still true to a certain extent, I don’t think it’s a done deal. I do think the last two weeks or so, there’s been a bit of a vibe shift. I want to talk a little bit about that. You know, right now we’re in kind of this lull of the campaign period where We’re in the middle of early voting.

01:13.29

Sam Shirazi

It has come down a little bit, but it’s still very high numbers. I expect well over a million people kept voting early and potentially one and a half million people voting early, which is just really, really high numbers for a non-general election.

01:25.93

Sam Shirazi

And then the last 10 days of this campaign are going to be really big. because that’s when all the, most of the early voting locations, satellite locations are gonna be opening up. So I think the last 10 days are gonna be a sprint. And so we’re in this kind of holding pattern right now where there’s some consistent early voting happening. And then I think at the end, there’s gonna be this huge momentum to for people to come vote early. And I think in terms of the vibe shift right now,

01:51.24

Sam Shirazi

I think there’s a sense both in terms of the early vote. I think it’s starting to look better for the yes campaign. And I think part of the reason for that is just fact that typically the longer early voting goes on, the better it typically is for Democrats because more male votes are added. And I think oftentimes the people who vote earliest are like,

02:11.09

Sam Shirazi

older people. And usually as the early voting period goes on, it starts to get a little bit younger, more diverse. So I think those are starting to show through some of the early voting data. And I think it’s going to get even better once we get the early voting satellite locations opening up for the Yes campaign. So I think The early voting is not as great as it was at at the beginning for the the No campaign. And there’s a couple of different outlets that do analysis of early vote. You know, in Virginia, there’s no party registration. So we don’t know what party anyone belongs to.

02:41.25

Sam Shirazi

Like you can do that in some other states and do that type of early voting analysis. However, you can kind of model what the model party ID is. And one organization that does that, for they’ve and they’ve done it for a long time, is called L2. They’re just kind of a a data organization.

02:57.82

Sam Shirazi

And their estimate is roughly that, you know, give or take, it’s about 60-40, the Democrats coming out in this election so far. You know, caveat that, but we don’t know how these people are voting. But typically, that’s what you see in Virginia early vote about a 60-40 advantage for Democrats if you take into account the mail vote. Chaz Netticombe, who was on last week, also did analysis through State Navigate. And he found or his team basically found the same thing, roughly sixty forty Democrats, you know, in terms of the early vote.

03:27.92

Sam Shirazi

you know I caveat all that by saying that we don’t know how these people are voting. We don’t know how independents are voting. Even if if model ID is 60-40 Democrats, it could be 50-50 yes-no, just because the no campaign is getting some persuasion.

04:14.14

Sam Shirazi

I think in this election, I think you can assume most R’s are going to vote no. I think most D’s are going to vote yes. You know, what is the number? Is it going to be 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%? I think that’s going to be important.

04:26.94

Sam Shirazi

We don’t quite know how many D’s are voting against it. You know, it seems like there’s probably going to be more than voted for Earl Sears, but is it going to be a lot more or is it more anecdotal? and I think the real question mark are the independents. How do independents go?

04:41.53

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, Spanberger did really well with independents last year. That’s part of the reason she got such a big win. This year, I think I could see the independents definitely being more skeptical of the Yes campaign, just given the nature of it, given it’s a more partisan endeavor to gerrymander Virginia.

04:56.83

Sam Shirazi

At the same time, a lot of independents, their number one priority is maybe sending message to President Trump. So if it’s just a straight referendum on the president, I think that’s going to be better for the yes campaign in terms of independence. So still a lot of unknowns. Like I’m not comfortable saying, you know, definitely yes is going to win or no is going to win. I just think it’s not that type of election.

05:14.53

Sam Shirazi

But I am comfortable talking a little bit about the vibe shift. And the the reason I mentioned that is election like this. There hasn’t been a lot of polls, and there particularly has not been a lot of polls of, you know, specifically the question that’s on the ballot. I think there are some organizations that have put out polls, but they’re not exactly a question on the ballot.

05:31.71

Sam Shirazi

I think hopefully we’ll get some more polls in the final days of the campaign. I think Chaz Naticombe mentioned that State Navigate is going to be doing a poll. I think we’re going to probably get a few other polls, but there there isn’t a lot of polling to go off of. There isn’t kind of a lot of...

05:44.89

Sam Shirazi

precedent for this in Virginia, you know, like we did with the governor’s election where, you know, okay, the party out the White House typically does well in the governor’s election. We just can’t really assume that because we don’t do this type of referendum in Virginia very often or ever. So I think a lot of the analysis so far has been on vibes. And and what I mean by vibes is just people’s guts, people’s like, you know, this kind of feels like, you know, the no campaign is doing okay or the yes campaign is doing okay. There’s not really a lot of logic behind it other than maybe some very, you know,

06:13.41

Sam Shirazi

Broad interpretation of early vote data. So all of that is to say, basically, we are not going to get really good data on on this election until but maybe the end when we get the final polls. And so a lot of the analysis has been based based on vibes. I think certainly the No campaign and certain movements, certain people within the conservative movement have been very loud and I think they’ve made their voices heard. And I think that has perhaps informed the vibes in terms of, well, the No campaign seems like they have some moment momentum, seems like they’re doing well.

06:45.28

Sam Shirazi

So I think that was kind of the initial vibe reading in Virginia, at least once the early voting started. I think the last two weeks, you know putting aside the early voting data, I think just given the national environment, I think things have gotten harder for the Republicans.

07:22.13

Sam Shirazi

And so if you think about this referendum, you know what are people going to be doing when they go into the voting booth? Are they going to be thinking, you know, really nuanced questions about gerrymandering and trying to think through, you know, should Virginia gerrymander to counteract Republican states? I mean, is that really the calculation or is it just going to become, you know, I want to send a message. I don’t like what’s going on in D.C., so I’m going to vote yes on this campaign. Certainly the yes campaign wants that to happen.

07:48.01

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, the no campaign is trying to make it a Virginia specific campaign. The yes campaign is trying to make it a national campaign. And you may have remembered that is the same dynamic that happened in Virginia in 2025. Almost always with these state elections, the party that’s out of the White House wants to make it a national election. The party in the White House wants to make it a state election. And you’re seeing those dynamics again.

08:10.70

Sam Shirazi

The Yes campaign wants to make this about President Trump and national politics. The No campaign wants to make this about state-specific election in terms of gerrymandering these seats.

08:36.36

Sam Shirazi

So we’re seeing all those dynamics play out. I mean, I think part of the analysis in terms of the vibe shift fives shiftft is just, you know, national politics is more in the news, especially now with gas prices, with the war in Iran.

08:48.55

Sam Shirazi

It’s just... You know, people are not thinking about the nuances of gerrymandering. They’re kind of thinking about how am i going to pay for gas and groceries and all those things. And so the more that becomes the dominant issue in the news leading up to April 21st, I think the more difficult task the no campaign is going to have. I think interesting question is going to be, you know, we’re about. a little, about two and a half weeks out from this referendum, you know, what is going to be happening on April 21st? Is there going to still be a war going on in the Middle East?

09:19.26

Sam Shirazi

Are oil prices going to continue to be elevated? You know, right now, that seems very you know possible that that could be happening on April 21st. Although in theory, you know, things could wind down.

09:29.23

Sam Shirazi

There could be the end of the war that could cause, you know, stocks to go up. That could cause oil prices to come down. You know, in theory, there are these kind of dynamics that could change in these next 20 days or so But I think the reality is, even if that happens in the best case scenario for the Republicans, I think, you know, these things are kind of baked in at this point. And it’s it’s pretty hard to move the national politics that much. And so long story short, i think it’s just interesting to think through where we are in Virginia right now.

10:00.11

Sam Shirazi

i you know... I’m just kind of giving you an update in terms of what I’m seeing out there. I don’t personally think the dynamics have changed that much either way. i think a lot of this is just kind of commentary and, you know, we got to talk about something. So we’re going to talk about no doing well or yes, doing well.

10:16.97

Sam Shirazi

I would really like to see some, Polling, I think the State Navigate poll is going to be great. Hopefully you get some more polling as well. I also think the the final early voting numbers will be great because I think, you know, the first few days early voting may be skewed. I really look for early voting almost at the end. I mean, you really have to wait because of the satellite voting locations.

10:37.76

Sam Shirazi

I’ll probably do a whole episode about... what I call Super Saturday, but I will preview it for you here. So Super Saturday will be on April 11th. The reason I call it Super Saturday is that’s the first day we we’ll have weekend Saturday early voting across Virginia.

10:52.44

Sam Shirazi

And a lot of places will be opening up their satellite voting locations, including Fairfax, Arlington, Loudoun, Prince William County, Virginia Beach, lot of big places typically more democratic voters in those areas are going to be opening their early voting locations that’s later than they usually open. And so I think this Saturday on April 11th, I think we’ll see a lot of early voting because there’s been a lot of pent up demand with people waiting for their satellite early voting locations. So,

11:19.13

Sam Shirazi

Long story short, I mean, I think it’s too early to really use early voting to predict what’s going to happen. I think maybe at the end you can use it. I think at the end you’ll also get more polls. The polls will be closer and time to the election.

11:30.72

Sam Shirazi

All the advertisement money is going to be spent. So I think more so than a typical election, this is really one you’re just going to have to wait till the end to make a formal prediction. I mean, to be perfectly honest, like I didn’t do this in the governor’s election in 2025, but I probably could have. I mean, I think as soon as Doge happened, I mean, I was pretty confident that Smanberger was going to win the governor’s election. There was really no other way the Republicans could come back from that, no matter how good of or bad of a campaign Earl Sears ran. It didn’t really matter. I think I was pretty confident in saying that.

11:58.81

Sam Shirazi

i you know I didn’t say it on here because I didn’t i didn’t want to you know jump to conclusions, but that was you know in the back of my head. Here, you know I certainly think the Yes campaign has the advantage, but it’s not the same where I can say with 100% confidence, it’s definitely going to happen. I just think it’s just not that type of election, given the kind of unique circumstances that has...

12:18.51

Sam Shirazi

that has given a rise to the election and, and just the unpredictability. You don’t know how many Democrats are going to end up voting. No, you really don’t know how many independents could be voting. No, I think there’s a wide range.

12:29.65

Sam Shirazi

It could, it could be much more than we’re expecting in theory. And so just want to be a little bit cautious, but I did want to note the vibe shift that has been happening. Okay, so last thing I want to talk about just briefly is just some of the areas to look for in terms of the redistricting campaign when these results start coming in. Because I think one of the question marks that that I flagged are independents, and especially independents in kind of ancestrally Republican areas that have become blue. And so I’ll i’ll talk about a few counties that Spanberger did well in in 2025, places like Stafford, Chesterfield, you know, these are in

13:03.33

Sam Shirazi

kind of suburban parts of D.C. or Richmond where traditionally they’ve been red, but they’ve been becoming more and more blue. I think there was a dynamic where Spanberger did well in those areas, but Jay Jones was was running further behind there and then other parts of Virginia. And that’s just because you have people who have traditionally been more comfortable voting for Republicans.

13:22.08

Sam Shirazi

So they might have liked Spanberger, but they were willing to vote for Miárez. I think you could see a similar dynamic where in some of those counties, people who voted for Spanberger, they just you know This rubs them the wrong way, either because they don’t like one party rule, they don’t like one party trying to maximize its power. They may just you know traditionally be willing and sympathetic to Republican arguments, so they’re willing to hear the no side campaign more than they would otherwise. So those are some of the interesting counties that I’m looking for.

13:51.43

Sam Shirazi

And then the other counties, and that’s really on the persuasion side. so that’s in terms of, you know, are people going to vote for the no campaign, even though they voted for Spanberger? I think that’s kind of those are the types of places to look for, in know, more higher income, wealthier, educated areas where, for whatever reason, they may have traditionally been Republican and they’re willing to vote no for Spanberger.

14:12.71

Sam Shirazi

The campaign. i think the other dynamic to look for is just turnout. You know, what is turnout looking for looking like in the Democratic areas, for example, areas with more black voters and more young voters on how are Democrats doing in those areas in terms of turnout, because probably if people end up voting.

14:31.04

Sam Shirazi

They’re probably going to vote yes in those areas. I think the Democrats, frankly, in the early vote data have done a pretty good job with black voters in places like Hampton Roads, where sometimes they struggle with those voters. I think here they’re certainly keeping up with 2025.

14:44.79

Sam Shirazi

And I think for Democrats, they have to be happy about that because obviously, I think the more black voters that come out, the more it’s likely they’re going to vote yes. So I think Democrats are doing well or the yes campaign is doing well in terms of getting out those voters in those parts of Virginia.

14:59.15

Sam Shirazi

I think the real area where Democrats or in the yes campaign could struggle is potentially college towns, places with young voters. You know, we saw that the Democrats did well in places like Blacksburg in 2025. That’s how Lily Franklin was able to flip a seat. I think.

15:26.95

Sam Shirazi

I think the challenge the Yes campaign is going to have in this election is just – A lot of college students, younger voters, they may not really understand what’s going on. is there referendum? What is redistricting? What is gerrymandering? I mean, it’s just it’s just a different thing that they might not quite get and they might not be as engaged.

15:44.71

Sam Shirazi

And so I think that’s just one thing to keep in mind. you know There may not be as much youth turnout because it’s just a different type of election as opposed to a governor’s election. However, I think if they’re able to kind of persuade people or at least you know make the case that this is more a referendum sending a message on President Trump, I think there’s certainly a possibility those yes voters can come out for for Democrats who are younger.

16:05.87

Sam Shirazi

On the Republican side, there’s a similar dynamic with with Turnout in terms of rural areas like Southwest Virginia. I think part of the reason there was this kind of optimism about the no campaign was places like Southwest Virginia, which typically doesn’t have great turnout in state elections because it’s more of a working class area, but very red.

16:24.04

Sam Shirazi

Those areas had pretty good early votes so far. The problem is, you know, it’s not, you know, super crazy high. Like it’s it’s good relative to 2025, but given 2025 was pretty bad. It’s just not this like crazy, crazy high level of turnout. And I think the no campaign will just need really, really high turnout in places that are very red because obviously the red, you know, they’re going to vote no you know, rural areas where, you know, they may be affected by the gerrymander. They’re going to be voting no.

16:52.46

Sam Shirazi

The question is, do they get kind of like, OK, turn out maybe a little bit better than 2025? Or did he get like really through the roof turnout? Again, we don’t really know until Election Day. A lot of those places probably people prefer to vote on Election Day. So we just really have to wait and see. And I think the fundamental problem that no campaign going have is even if they get a lot of low propensity Republicans out.

17:12.97

Sam Shirazi

So, you know, this type of election. It’s just, you know, if even if they get their voters out, if it’s generally a high turnout election and the Democrats are getting their voters out and they’re getting their low propensity voters out, I mean, Virginia leans blue. So what the no campaign really needs is high turnout in rural red areas and low turnout in Democratic areas. It seems like they’re getting pretty good turnout in the red areas. They’re just not getting the low turnout in the Democratic areas. And so I think that’s part of the challenge that no campaign has. So long story short, we’ll just have to wait and see how that all happens, how that all plays out. You know, I’ll be covering it all as we get more early vote data. I’ll i’ll give you more analysis on that as we give more.

17:52.14

Sam Shirazi

Polling, i’ll I’ll give you kind of more information about that. But I think right now we’ll just have to wait and see where things are. i did want to mention the vibe shift. And, you know, I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. I’ll keep covering the wild ride that is the Virginia elections. And I’ll join you next time on Federal Fall Out.

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