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I’ve written at length about the need to incorporate all sectors of society in disaster response and recovery operations. For each significant event, there are four unique and often uncoordinated responses: the not for profit (NFP) industry ramping up services for their clients, the private sector enacting continuity operations and extending support to their network, the residents helping each other and finally, the formal public sector incident response and management operations. One is not in command and control, each have stakeholders and they are working diligently to mitigate the harm and return to pre-event operations with the shortest delay. 

There are a myriad of publications in academia and grey literature that speak to the need for coordination, formal training on how to execute a whole of community effort, but little cooperation across the government to population power divide. This is why my profound reaction when my students presented the following idea, an economic recovery task force (ERTF).

An ERTF is not a recovery mechanism at heart, it is a permanent round table where the sectors of society contemplate, coordinate and cooperate on how the economic engine of a city would respond to an event, recover and return to normalcy. This is an effort that brings together the private sector, NFP and municipal government to map out what recovery would look like, specific, focussed - with the intent to create an environment where business resumed at the earliest opportunity. We know that economic activity provides income, allows society to return to normalcy and the loss of access to normal resources is an impediment for residents. If a strategy existed that demonstrated the preparedness of the economic engine for disasters, then confidence rises, investment gains traction and a sense of security and prosperity is maintained.

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According to Global Velocity, in the USA there are 59 million workers in the freelance or gig economy, earning over 500 million, with an estimated 50% of American workers completing at least one external independent contracting assignment this year. While grounded in the transportation industry, the emergence of consultants, IT, AI curators and a host of independent contractors in professional industries - trades, healthcare expanding, there is a significant shift underway in the global workforce. 

Most entrepreneurs, 70% in recent surveys, do so by choice, not socio-economic need, mainly grounded in a desire to reap the full rewards of their work, to set their own work-life balance and to carve an independent piece from the global pie. In essence, the model of working for a company, generating wealth for the stock holders is now a short term learning evolution, vice a formative career. Individuals are entering the corporate workforce to learn the industry and quickly departing on collective or independent ventures, leading to a host of online offerings that once were the purview of corporations. This is the emerging economic model.

You can hire an MBA graduate, equivalent to western schools, for $10 per hour from India, or a marketing expert with a masters degree from Thailand for $15 a day. Why would you hire a recent graduate from Harvard or Yale on a full time salary with expensive benefits when you can outsource a specific niche requirement to an expert with equivalent skills for a fraction of the cost? Additional risk, potentially, but is that risk equivalent to the savings of contract work?

These chaotic times, the levels of uncertainty in the markets and fears of recessions, are pushing the workforce to embrace responsibility for their outcomes. While there remains calls for action to counter this movement to the gig economy, often in posts from individuals who are following a 1999 idea of sending in resumes and expecting to land interviews, eventually they understand that the system is not failing them, they’re just pursuing a strategy for a different economy. While in some industries there remains growth in salaried employment, that is becoming an exception outside public sector positions. In some western locations, precarious work is the fastest growing part of the economy. 

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Resilience is intentional and requires commitment. We often pursue ideas and strategies that are one and done. I’ll put in the effort, achieve the standard and we’re all good, nothing else to do. Being ready for the unknown, embracing uncertainty and navigating the unexpected is a skill set, one that requires regular maintenance and sharpening. Resilience is likely one of the most influential skills you can adopt, it encompasses your ability to maintain order in chaos, to lead those for whom you’re responsible, to thrive when others are flailing in the dark. 

We’ve outlined your four steps to resilience over the course of this series, on this written medium, as well as on the audio versions on the podcast, Inside My Canoehead, and finally on a video feed on our YouTube channel. Free, because equipping society with the skills to be more resilient in the face of current and future harm is a public good. 

To expand on resilience, to move skills to the collective, requires additional effort. There are four research based strategies to build your resilience through embracing the world around you, and taking a deeper dive into some of the concepts introduced over the past four steps. 

The roadmap to resilience doesn’t have an end, it is a pathway you choose to follow, one that mirrors your life. So embrace the opportunities offered, dive into the deep end and believe in yourself, for there is a myriad of opportunities for health, wealth and happiness in the chaos, throughout these uncertain times. The choice is yours, choose wisely.

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Anthropological and sociological research has reasonably defined the spheres of influence in your world, a concept design, sometimes referred to as spatial. In simplest terms, it is a division of interests, those that motivate us and classify arenas in which we operate. While never homogenous, the literature reasonably agrees that political, economic, cultural, familial and natural describe the portions of a human existence in this cosmos. Everything that happens does so within one of these spheres, often occupying one or more, but we can trace events to origins within these five. 

We posit that everything in this world is a function of someone else’s actions within one or more of the spheres, and to echo step two, your decision is how you choose to respond. You, nor I, can make someone say, believe or act upon something, but we have absolute control over both the reaction and the surveillance. In military parlance, reconnaissance is the function of trying to ascertain the intent of someone before they undertake a decision, so as to counter that before they begin or to ready for the coming events. Risk analysis is reconnaissance for your life, simply put, understanding the things that may happen, by examining the world around you, enables you to create an accurate assessment of the threat profile where you operate - for you, the family, community, business and your social networks.

Zero risk is illogical and not possible, the probability of many events occurring rapidly approaches nil, but never reaches it. The goal of a risk assessment is to first identify all that could occur, classify it and select those that present the highest threat. Create a plan to counter and you’ll have situated the estimate as the military would say, doing what is possible within a world of chaotic uncertainty. There is no perfect solution, risks will be misidentified, classified incorrectly, leading to unintended outcomes. The intent is to mitigate, to limit the extent to which you and those for whom you’re responsible are exposed to uncomfortable stress and potential harm.

As each individual, family, community or business will have differentiating considerations, this guide is created as a series of signposts, some will be bright and important to you, others will be dim and distant. Examining each of the five spheres of influence and asking the simple question, “what threats exist in this arena that if realized could cause harm to my interests”, then “when that is realized, does it create low, moderate or extreme levels of risk?”. 

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Further research grounds that even with a series of hazards, in some areas communities face a host of differentiating risks, there are limitations to the choices at hand. When drilled to the simplest form, humans have only two distinct choices, shelter in place or evacuate. Irrespective of the hazard or impact, the resulting decision for communities is what to do, limited to a binary choice. Our research has led to the conclusion that if we educate the public on what they can do, not why they may have to do something, then we have a greater probability of behavioural adoption, meaning that residents are ready to conduct both, with the catalyst being accurate and timely information from a trusted source.

As such, Preparedness Labs Incorporated, developed the trifecta of preparedness plans, to include shelter in place and evacuation - as well as the one additional event frequently highlighted in our research as impactful and the source of worry - loss of income. Hence, the three plans are presented, based upon research, as the strategies necessary to build resilience, to adopt the preparedness measures required to be capable of decision making and executing a bespoke plan to shelter in place, evacuate or mitigate income loss.

Shelter in Place. Colloquially referred to as bugging-in, the concept is simple. You plan to provide for your family throughout an emergency without requiring external assistance from government. Specifically, our research concludes that this means providing for the animalistic (we are animals in the environment) requirements (food, water, shelter, health, safety & security), for all those for whom you are responsible (family is often multi-generational and multi-location) for a timeline you feel comfortable, relying only on social connections and community for support. 

Evacuation. Rare, with some literature referring to it as the most dangerous situation for a family, in relation to the immediate and ongoing potential disruption to normal lives. Research into successful evacuation outcomes informs that families who did evacuate under a prepared plan to a pre-established family or friend’s residence had lower degrees of anxiety or stress and significantly reduced financial burden. This was due to a limited need to expend additional funds for shelter and per diem, as well as the calm and comfort of private accommodation. There was no correlation with successful insurance claims and short term accommodations, other than an increased access to Wifi or cell coverage, privacy and supporting IT systems to conduct the claim process. 

Loss of Income. Everyone leaves their current employment, you either die, quit, are fired or retire. Most hope that they will separate on their terms, at a time of their choosing, though history and the current economic climate might dictate otherwise. Survey responses in the USA have shown that immediate loss of income is rated equally to a total loss of a home, in impact to mental, financial and family health. We consider a loss of the primary source of revenue for a family to be equally impactful as an evacuation and loss. Evidence shows that individuals who possess a pivot strategy, a process to quickly replace the lost income with an alternate employment stream are more likely to be successful. Data from the recent pandemic demonstrates that a number of individuals were able to replace their lost income, during an emergency, due to a pre-existing plan. Whether that be the same profession in a new industry, commoditizing a skill set, or beginning a new career in a field with existing demand, a strategy to

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Seldom do people make decisions in isolation, they seek information, knowledge and opinion of trusted sources to inform what their options. We’re learning that counter to the neo-classical economic thought, humans make decisions on emotion and later use logic to justify it. We used to believe that decisions were made at the margins, incremental and always with our own best interest at heart. We are wildly difficult to predict. 

The roadmap’s part one informed that society functions on the back of 10 sectors of critical infrastructure (CI), that emergency management (EM) as a public function intends to support society during disruptions and that a preparedness gap exists between hazard induced needs and the government’s capacity / capability. Embracing these ideas is key to moving along the pathway to resilience, followed in this part by the acceptance of responsibility for outcomes and ourselves. We posit that once responsibility has been adopted and improvement is underway, we can consider the types of preparedness we choose to adopt. 

First, as argued by the stoics and modern philosophers, there is little we actually control, but that is precisely enough. We have absolute control over two areas, what we say and do. Everything else that occurs in the world is a function of what others say and do, over which we have nominal influence, but management of how we choose to respond. This frame is the key to successful preparedness, we’re not trying to change the world, bring in new policies or governance systems, the goal is to become more prepared to navigate that which we do not control, through controlling what we can. 

Personal responsibility for your outcomes means you acknowledge that whether or not external assistance may exist, it is ultimately you who are responsible for how your life proceeds. Win or lose, it is your fault. This is not an argument for isolationism, far from it as we will address in parts 4 and 5, but that you first must accept that if you are to lead through chaos, you must first accept the leadership role. If you choose to not assume command and control of your life, then you are a dependent of someone else - family, community or the government. You will be counting on an external force to provide for your basic needs when calamity strikes, and if they fail to do so, you will suffer. The choice is binary, looking at the incredible person in the mirror, are you willing to lead your life, by accepting responsibility for your outcomes? If the answer is yes, listen to this episode.

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Our intent in this five part series is to demystify the idea of resilience, to ground it in the philosophy of preparedness and to provide the operationalization of research. Everything that follows is based upon defendable data sources, evidence to support a recommended pathway, to ensure that you receive only what we “know” to be helpful. A caveat first - science is imperfect. It received a bloody nose during the pandemic, rightfully so. Science is the expression of knowledge as we understand it today, based upon the research - results of experimentation, leveraging our best mathematical models to provide reasonable certainty. Science is never settled, those who make such statements are not scientists, but advocates. What we understand about the physical world (natural sciences) and the human species (social sciences) remains changing, as it should, as we test new hypothesis, challenging paradigmatic norms. 

This series is our recipe to seize control of your life, to insulate your family / business against the effects of events you cannot control and to the greatest extent possible, reach your goals. No system is foolproof, nor can they plan for all contingencies. We’ve examined thirty years of data, conducted our own research to create this roadmap. We are imperfect as well, but we believe providing you non-apocalyptic evidence-based preparedness education, in the form of a roadmap to resilience, is a noble cause. We will provide these five steps in this format, with an accompanied audio episode on our podcast, Inside My Canoehead, as well as a visual representation on our YouTube channel. 

This is our company’s, Preparedness Labs Incorporated, offering to the world, free of charge. We simply ask you to share and invest your time and effort. No money is required on the road to resilience, there are no economic barriers to preparedness, they are simply creations of the state.

Our goal for this roadmap is that you’ll learn to navigate shocks that cause the loss of access to one or more sectors of CI, within your own resources. Disasters are dealt with through step 3 - your trifecta of preparedness plans. Until then, we concentrate on you accepting this as the frame for society, that emergencies occur when you need to navigate loss of access to CI, and that this will look different for every human, family, community and neighbourhood. There is no one size fits all, your circumstances are sufficiently unique that within a small group of individuals, the needs will vary greatly, as will the mitigation strategies.

Framing resilience as a personal skill, a capability born from understanding the world around us, how it function and fails, as well as they public systems designed to assist, sets the condition for step two, responsibility for the world around us.

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Framing our situation is important, because the lens we choose to use when examining the world around us influences what we see, the actions we believe are helpful and the outcomes we seek. Ask an academic about the choice of theoretical frameworks and you’ll need copious amounts of caffeine to survive the lecture. Prominent, exceptionally important, yet rarely discussed.

Leaders make decisions, they examine the information or data, seek guidance or advice, but in the end are tasked with committing their organizations to a path. That pathway, when grounded in strategy thinking has a higher degree of resilience, because the leader is managing issues, not finding solutions.

Solutions are the endgame for problems that are 100% within the control of management. Personnel, resources, processes, policies and procedures are designed to address known problems, to offer solutions to end the harm. Solution seekers require authority and control, which is why they can only be successful when looking inward. To look to the environment, over which we have exceptionally little influence, requires a different lens, that of managing issues vice finding solutions. 

When we consider the myriad of problems, existential for some, the aim is not to invest finite resources in trying to solve a problem within another organization, but leading our teams through the issue presented by the external problem. Issue management is the concept of leveraging the resources over which we have control, to find the least disruptive and most helpful pathway for our team. 

I cannot control the decision of the US Federal government to change the funding allocations related to FEMA. That is a problem in another organization over which I have little influence. The intelligent response is to understand how I navigate the issue presented by the change in funding models. This reaction is rare, when we examine the proliferation of articles and posts on LinkedIn, almost to an exception, they are demanding an outcome they cannot control, bemoaning the change - but few offer ideas on mitigating loss, other than simply demanding someone else provides the resources. Change is here, it really is inconsequential whether you agree or not, but as a leader in your organization, how will you leverage your assets to manage the issue?

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We have seen a notable and systemic shift in the role of individualism in Canada, the emergence of a default assumption that the correct and appropriate response to a collective issue is government intervention. That may be in the form of access to financial resources, programatic offerings or a new set of policy interventions in society. 

This set the stage for the pandemic, the arrival of the virus in Canada in November 2019 and the declaration of a pandemic in March 2020, which led many governments to enact a series of interventions in our free society, with the intent of mitigating the spread of the virus. We all remember the catch phrases, “two weeks to flatten the curve”, “six feet of separation” and others. The majority of the population were caught off guard, did not see a pandemic with the associated restrictive covenants as part of 2020, simply did not have a strategy to counter a significant exogenous shock. 

The rapid and immediate call for government intervention into rescuing the population, principally replacing lost income, led me to ponder a simple, but powerful question: why were people choosing to live a life so close to the line that they would need government money to cover their bills within a few months of losing their income?

The podcast, Inside My Canoehead, was my response to that question, to explore why the population at large was so unprepared for a shock, why the government intervention was necessary and what were the drivers behind a society that was so ill positioned to navigate such an event. The government had been issuing preparedness messaging for decades, financial gurus have been arguing for emergency funds for rainy days and health practitioners were advocating for caring for our mental health. The solutions were there, but the population simply chose not to listen.

It has been a pleasure to provide non-apocalyptic, evidence-based preparedness education for free, that is our mission at Preparedness Labs Incorporated, to be Canada’s source for rational and research based strategies to navigate exogenous shocks. So I raise a glass to all that made the past five years possible - my incredible wife, kids, confidants, Tina in Germany and a list of believers that convinced me to continue the message, to climb upon the soapbox in the public square and be unapologetically me. So I did and here I am. 

Pro Patria.

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First, a sincere thank you for the support over the past half decade, we've been a stalwart voice in the pandemic, offering evidence-based strategies to protect your family from the personal and economic harm. Our Season 13 was grounded in providing that guidance and speaking to a number of key notable figures. 

Season 14 begins with the 5th year anniversary episode, followed by the offering of our premiere and now free, 4 step 8-hour roadmap to resilience. The only evidence-based preparedness education designed to support you and your family on the journey to living your life, protected from exogenous shocks.

Our commitment to you is this audio version, a written substack and a YouTube channel designed to offer free, non-apocalyptic evidence-based preparedness education.

So consume via the medium you prefer, we believe your family is worth it.

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