Janus Henderson Investors asks, “Would you lend to this man?” – with the man in question being Uncle Sam. That is a very important question, but one that is too easy to dismiss, as formulated. Ask instead, “Who will bail out this man?” and perhaps we’ll arouse greater interest. The reason is that Uncle Sam and his fraternity of ne’er-do-wells across the world will get the last laugh, or at least the last tax.
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Pundits are pondering whether the U.S. and China will come to terms on trade and if Theresa May will eke out a Brexit that avoids market chaos. These are interesting questions. But the real question for investors is: Have you positioned your portfolio for both profit and protection – no matter what’s going on in the news?
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The top three news stories spooking investors are ToXiC -- with the T for Trade, Brexit in the middle and OPEC at the end. Pundits will be telling you to sell, but investors should follow their own individual plan, not the herd. There is however one group for whom a toxic market may indeed be problematic, and that is retirees or those on the cusp of retirement. Their need for retirement income may force them to sell shares at the worst possible time toxic news topples the market.
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Riots in France are said to be the worst riots that country has seen since the 1960s. In a twist on Frantz Fanon, the new wretched of the earth are apparently the non-rich native population. And yet Credit Suisse just ranked France among the top 5 wealth wealthiest countries, on the basis of median wealth, implying broad wealth distribution. Takeaways: Expect more social disruption, and a push for wealth redistribution. Investors require very wide asset diversification, including cash.
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A 2016 Harvard University study showed that a majority of millennial reject capitalism. Drill down today’s CDC report about decreasing U.S. longevity, primarily because of opioid deaths, and you see that millennials have the highest proportion of such deaths, and the highest increase in suicides. Is there a connection?
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Jonathan Boyar, president of Boyar’s Intrinsic Value Research, explains his investing approach at a time when market leadership may be shifting to value. If he had to pick a sector exhibiting classic value characteristics, Boyar would focus on bank stocks. He explains the undesirability of investing in energy stocks whose fortunes shift on the price of oil, and why investors could do better than to buy fallen FAANGs. Boyar instead favors stocks left out of the major indexes, and names two that he believes
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Apple CEO Tim Cook calls new tech regulations “inevitable.” He wasn’t too specific, but it seems he had in mind the European Union’s new GDPR regs, which raise the privacy of user data to a much higher level. The impact of these new regulations is not easy to calculate – it ultimately depends on which violations are fined, and by how much. But it may well be that the easy money has already been made in Big Data.
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Jeff Miller, a prominent Seeking Alpha contributor and also an investment advisor with NewArc Investments, discusses how he goes about gaining clarity about clients’ needs, goals and risk tolerance. He explains how he seeks to protect clients against downside risk, given the reality of strong loss aversion.
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Tejon Ranch Co. owns the largest piece of private property in the state of California, encompassing 270,000 acres. TRC has been beaten down to just north of its 52-week low because of declining revenues based on poor crop sales, weak crop yields, trade war with China and poor performing joint ventures. But its biggest promise lies in its real estate projects, whose revenues are growing slowly. This suggests that Tejon may have a lot of good news ahead of it and most of the bad news behind it.
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Energy is the classic late-market-cycle investment that rises when growth begins to slow and stocks look expensive. What’s more, energy stocks have been subdued since 2014. The market doesn’t seem prepared for a reversal since the three largest energy producers – U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia – are reaching new production highs. A possible catalyst could be Iran, which has vowed to take revenge for U.S. sanctions. Even without geopolitical instability, the current energy supply may simply fail to ke
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