By one estimate, progress on the Chinese trade issue could generate a 4-5% move in a single day. So do tweets about trade progress suggest now is the time to scoop up a China ETF? I suggest that the reality of America’s and China’s current roles in the global economy and one key piece of market data do not imply a lucrative China play now.
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MarketWatch quotes the “godfather” of chart analysts forecasting a bear market. If so, why didn’t he offer us this warning before October’s wipe-out? And more to the point, what relevance do daily market movements have to each individual’s unique circumstances, goals and timelines?
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Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of American Action Forum and formerly a member of George H.W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisors, director of the Congressional Budget Office and chief economic advisor to John McCain’s presidential campaign, shares his thoughts on the cutting economic issues of our time, such as the impact of tax reform on U.S. growth and how the government can deescalate the rampant increase in debt.
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Shachar Kariv, a decision theorist at U.C. Berkeley and chairman of its economics department, has the unique distinction of relating behavioral economics in a fashion that is relevant to investment decision makers. In other words, it’s not just academic. In this podcast, he answers such questions as what are the key trade-offs we should consider in making investments; what kind of investor should go to a financial advisor; and who is more important – your advisor or your physician?
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The U.S. administration’s increasingly tough stance on China suggests the U.S.-China dispute is rising to almost Cold War levels. De-escalation will be neither quick nor easy. Whether this was the intention or not, the hard line against Beijing gives the U.S. instant credibility to carry out tough measures on trade. That makes U.S.-China trade an issue that could prompt an immediate market reaction.
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President Trump responded to yesterday’s market fall with criticism of the Fed. Yet just last week, the president boasted the market had reached a record high, for which he took credit. It seems unwise for the president to intimately entangle himself with stock market performance. Rather, he, Fed chairman Powell and investors alike should concentrate on their jobs, the performance of which is not enhanced by close attention to the stock market.
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The fine to which Facebook is subject for last week’s cyber breach could reach $1.63 billion. The small share price decline since news of the breach suggests that investors don’t think regulators will dock the social media giant to the maximum extent. Indeed, Facebook’s quick and complete response suggests that the firm had in place the capabilities to block the hackers. The firm also had plans in place to beef up cybser-security. All in all, the facts of this case seem to warrant regulatory restraint
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A study out this week, from the Dolphin Research Center in the Florida Keys, that shows how dolphins learned to synchronize their behavior in order to earn more fish and social praise. Dolphins understand something that still escapes many human beings, which is that their interests are not really opposed.
Maybe dolphins could show how to put more dollars in the average worker’s paycheck to the benefit of all.
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Major European companies with London headquarters continue their steady march out of the UK. The Centre for European Reform estimated that the British economy has shrunk by over 2% over the past two years, costing the Exchequer $30 billion – an amount that exceeds the expected dividend that departure from the EU was supposed to yield. Brexit reflects the modern tendency to lurch toward populist goals without any realistic plan as to how to make them work.
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Global oil output hit a record last month, and the IEA sees continued increases in oil production. On the other hand, bond king Jeffrey Gundlach sees oil heading as high $80 or $90 a barrel. Who’s right? A story the media is paying little attention to seems to indicate that, overall, oil market risk is rising.
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