The hundreds of billions of dollars that Facebook lost overnight will probably be bid back up, as investors come to terms with the reality that the social media giant’s business model remains intact. The matter is not unlike tobacco companies able to increase cigarette usage per customer before the damage cigarettes could cause became widely understood.
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A market read of the Helsinki summit suggests that the U.S. was looking to achieve numerous objectives vis-à-vis oil markets, Iran, China and North Korea. For example, it is interesting to see that North Korea has gotten more cooperative since that summit, now dismantling its rocket launch site. It is similarly noteworthy that Russia is now reining in Iran, and has pledged cooperation with the U.S. in oil and gas markets.
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The U.S. budget deficit is now set to exceed $1 trillion starting next year. Amazon is now leading the pack of companies closing in on a $1 trillion market-cap. We should all be grateful for the 4th Amendment, and yet remain concerned about the temptations of revenue officers to find deep pockets to pick.
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Despite all the media attention, there is little of consequence for markets in the Trump-Putin meeting. That is a function of Russia’s current, protracted economic weakness. Ironically, the biggest long-term economic threat to Russia right now may be the U.S.-China trade war. A falling yuan can take the Russian economy down with it.
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A glance at today’s news feed provides fresh reminders of the potency of self-interest. NATO is increasing expenditures, the Saudis are increasing oil production, the Chinese are softening their posture on trade issues – all in deference to a self-assertive U.S. Agree or disagree with the current administration, an understanding of this operating force in national decision-making will aid your knowledge of markets.
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The current maneuvering over Brexit is looking a lot like the classic treachery of long knives that periodically disturbs the political peace of the British Isles. Hung parliaments don’t last very long before such treachery leads to new elections. Current polling suggests a general election could lead to a Labour Party victory that would bring about an unprecedented intrusiveness in the economy from which investors will likely flee.
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Economic growth derives from the input of labor and productivity. Productivity gains have slowed in the U.S. over the past decade, making a growing labor force critical. Eventually, the impact of the U.S. tax cuts will cease to be felt, as will other temporary economic stimulants, and the U.S. will return to a path of low growth. More workers, on the other hand, might add to the Labor Day cheer by restoring workers’ prestige within the economy.
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The landslide election of a leftist critic of NAFTA won’t be the cause of NAFTA’s demise; the trade framework appeared fatally wounded beforehand. The Trump Administration was committed to revising the agreement in what it perceived as America’s favor, while pro-NAFTA Canada and Mexico seemed unable to come to terms with the reality that their choice was going to be a less good deal or no deal.
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People in their 30s and 40s are just not engaged in the issue of retirement despite all signs pointing to a looming retirement crisis, an astonishing reality given the low level of private savings and public funding for retirement. Even if younger people are prepared to work into their later years, do they not know that sometimes their careers are prematurely ended?
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Two years on it seems like Britain has failed to gain the benefits of Brexit. Britain is muddling along, though Brexit has taken a toll, particularly on the pound. Meanwhile, the Remain side is kidding itself if it thinks the status quo ante can be restored. What’s more, the spirit of Brexit has surely emboldened Scottish separatists and increased support for Irish unification, spelling further decline for the UK.
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