Sacre Bleu: The French Presidential Election Podcast.

Olly and Marlon hop back on the mic to discuss Le Monde's stunning revelation that Macron is actually quite racist, a fact that a cursory listen to FLEP would have revealed to you.

We also talk about the devastation in Mayotte and the break-in at Mélenchon's house.

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France’s new Prime Minister is François Bayrou, a wiley operator who was a recidivist candidate for president until hitching his wagon closely to Emmanuel Macron in 2017. Since then he’s dreamed of the most powerful positions in the state, and now he has one of them.

Some parties on the left like the Communists, Socialists, and Greens are eschewing the anti-agreementism of more radical La France Insoumise, who are already promising to bring forward a new no-confidence vote against the Bayrou government. They say it’s just the same old product that Barnier was selling.

But the National Rally says they’re going to be vigilant, as they try to impose their line on Bayrou, who isn’t an unyielding opponent of Le Pen and her line.

Olly discusses pressure from within the Communist Party on their National Secretary Fabien Roussel, and Marlon talks about some politicians from MoDem, Bayrou’s party.

Show Notes

Lettre ouverte à Fabien Roussel : « Il est temps que tu passes le relais » | Politis (fr)

More Context From Flap24

- ⁠⁠Popular Fronts Old and New w/ Diane de Vignemont and Phineas Rueckert (en)

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Olly and Marlon hop on to chat about the state of the negotiations for the new prime minister (they are not going very well) and LFI's plan to impeach Von Der Lyen over Mercosur.

Olly said that LFI's presidency of the group in the EU was new - *it's not* they have co-chaired the group with Die Linke since 2019, so their plan to rebuild the group may still be in the offing.

Marlon's NYT piece

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/05/opinion/france-marine-le-pen.html

Olly's Jacobin piece

https://jacobin.com/2024/12/france-centrists-nfp-parti-socialiste

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Olly and Marlon discuss the last 24 hours in French politics.

We have long been bearish on the survival chances of the NFP and it looks like the breakup has finally happened and Faure has broken ranks with the rest of the Front.

We also talk briefly about Mercosur and announce the donkey of the day.

Marlon's NYT piece

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/05/opinion/france-marine-le-pen.html

Olly's Jacobin piece

https://jacobin.com/2024/12/france-centrists-nfp-parti-socialiste

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The government has fallen, and Michel Barnier is out. What comes next? Some people say presidential elections. Others say a rotating cast of soon to be defeated prime ministers, or government by decree.

Marlon goes over the scene where Barnier knew he was done, as well as the plans by France’s political forces to capitalize on the moment.

The goal? Winning in 2027 - or whenever the next election is.

Show Notes

France Is Being Held Hostage | The New York Times (en)

More Context From Flap24

- ⁠⁠Michel Barnier’s Wings of Wax (en)

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Barnier tried to pass his budget via article 49.3 and is now facing a motion of no confidence which he will lose.

Show notes

Olly's New Statesman piece:

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2024/12/macron-no-confidence-french-government-about-to-collapse

https://www.liberation.fr/economie/budget-censure-les-acteurs-economiques-sont-inquiets-et-cest-inquietant-20241202_FRQU55FASRFCLHMCQK6WZZFP5Y/

https://www.liberation.fr/idees-et-debats/editorial/le-493-consequence-logique-et-fatale-du-jeu-de-barnier-avec-lextreme-droite-20241202_SSELWAUQEVE6RNIC4U3SZOWH44/

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Olly and Marlon talk about the hysteria in France over Israeli football hooligans getting beaten up in Amsterdam, reactions to the American election in France and some news about Le Pen + Olly talks about his brief encounter with Francois Hollande.

Show Notes for November 14th, 2024

- Israeli soccer fans were attacked in Amsterdam. The violence was condemned as antisemitic | Associated Press (en)

- Antisemitic Attacks Prompt Emergency Flights for Israeli Soccer Fans | The New York Times (en)

- No, there were no ‘antisemitic pogroms’ in Amsterdam. Here’s what really happened. | Mondoweiss (en)

- Amsterdam highlights Israeli hooligans in first report on pogrom | Jewish News Syndicate (en)

- Raadsbrief feitenrelaas geweldsincidenten | Amsterdam Government (dut) [Machine Translation into English]

- L’Insoumis Sébastien Delogu s’emporte après une intervention d’Aurore Bergé sur les violences antisémites d’Amsterdam | Le Figaro (fr)

- Evidence from WhatsApp, Telegram groups shows Amsterdam pogrom was organized | i24 (fr)

- Pogrom d'Amsterdam : l'ombre de l'Iran derrière une attaque antisémite préméditée ? | JDD (fr)

- Debunking the Amsterdam ‘Pogrom’ | Foreign Policy in Focus (en)

- Si tu te dégonfles, tu te trump | melenchon.fr (fr)

More Context From Flap24

- Debrief élections américaines - Quelles conséquences ? | LFI Abroad (fr)

- Macron is down, Glucksmann is up, Le Pen is in court. | Flap24 (en)

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Olly and Marlon are joined by Sasha Yarapolskaya of Revolution Permanente a Trotskyist organisation which critiques LFI on the grounds that they are a reformist organisation.

Sasha discusses how she was polticised in France, coming there as a refugee from Russia, by the heightened level of class struggle on display, as well as harassement by the far right and why, in her opinion, Melenchonism is a dead end for the left.

Olly's previous interviews with Sasha and members of rev permanente.

https://novaramedia.com/2022/06/14/terfs-are-marginal-france-a-new-media-platform-plans-to-keep-it-that-way/

https://novaramedia.com/2023/05/12/french-protesters-are-thinking-up-new-ways-to-stop-macrons-pension-reforms/

Song at the end: Sans la nommer by Georges Moustaki

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With the backdrop of the American presidential election today, France’s parties are all making moves with an eye on the 2027 presidential election. Gabriel Attal is rallying the Macron wing as he takes control of the party, and the plucky Socialists want to eject what they see as the radical Mélenchon wing from the left.

The goal? Winning in 2027.

Show Notes

- ⁠Rester groupir⁠ | Politico Playbook (fr)

- ⁠Budget de la Sécu : après l'adoption de la partie "recettes" par un vote à front renversé, les députés entament l'examen des "dépenses"⁠ | LCP (en)

More Context From Flap24

- ⁠Édouard Phillippe’s presidential campaign kicks into gear⁠ (en)

- ⁠Battle Borne Budget Bludgeons⁠ | (en)

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The left has passed a series of buzzy amendments over the past week, including 30 billion euros worth of new taxes on the rich, as well as a variety of initiatives that the New Popular Front campaigned on. Deputies on the right and the center aren’t even showing up to vote against the measures.

So will France be getting a redistributive budget that taxes and spends (which the right calls confiscatory) any time soon?

Don’t count on it.

Show Notes

- Éducation, Justice... Après les impôts, les députés lancés dans la foire aux dépenses | Le Figaro (fr)

- Budget : le plan de Barnier pour sortir du bourbier de l’Assemblée | Mediapart (fr)

- Article 47 of the French Constitution | Legifrance (fr)

More Context From Flap24

- Battle Borne Budget Bludgeons (en)

- Budget Battles (en)

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