Investors have their eyes on Treasury yields following Monday's losses fueled partly by a yield rally. Rates could stay in focus ahead of Treasury auctions and CPI later this week.
Here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, December 10th:
Major indexes begin the day licking their wounds and watching the bond market after moderate losses Monday to start a week dominated by U.S. inflation data and central bank meetings. Stocks finished near their lows yesterday, potentially putting the market in a weak spot on the charts as Tuesday dawns.
Treasury yields rose across much of the curve Monday amid worries about tomorrow's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and reaffirmation by President-elect Trump that he stands by his tariff and deportation policies, which the market see as inflationary.
Adding to pressure on bonds, which move the opposite direction of yields, was The New York Federal Reserve's November consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead climbing to 3% from 2.9% in October. That followed year-ahead inflation expectations jumping to 2.9% from 2.6% in Friday's University of Michigan's preliminary December consumer sentiment report, the highest in six months.
"CPI & PPI loom large this week, and markets will be fixated on this inflation data," said Joe Mazzola, head trading and derivatives strategist at Schwab.
Besides CPI, tomorrow brings a rate decision from the Bank of Canada followed by Thursday's expected rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). The CPI data and Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI) could have a large impact on the U.S. rate outlook, but the Fed is seen almost certainly lowering rates when it gathers next week.
Tech stumbled to start the week after driving last week's rally to record highs. The softness surfaced after China announced an anti-trust investigation into Nvidia (NVDA), which weighed on Nvidia and most other semiconductor stocks. Tech may find itself under more pressure today after Oracle (ORCL) disappointed late Monday with earnings that missed analysts' average estimate. Revenue came in as expected, dominated by AI-driven cloud performance, but shares fell 7% in pre-market trading.
While Nvidia and semiconductors weighed on tech yesterday thanks partly to Beijing, not all the China news was bearish. China's Politburo shifted to looser monetary policy and promised more stimulus. This gave U.S.-listed Chinese stocks a boost and appeared to help U.S. gold mining and European luxury goods makers that might benefit from increased Chinese demand. Apple (AAPL), with a large presence in the Chinese market, registered a new all-time high Monday.
As of late Monday, traders saw an 86% chance rates will fall 25 basis points at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting December 17–18 and a 14% chance of no move, based on the CME FedWatch Tool.
It's unlikely the Fed would want to rock the boat by pausing next week with the market primed for a cut. But the central bank might deliver a so-called "hawkish trim," meaning it could lower rates and also express caution in its updated projections and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.
Heading into Tuesday, the question is whether Wall Street sees any "buy the dip" action after Monday's washout. The worst performing S&P 500 sector yesterday was mega-cap dominated communication services, while only the defensive health care sector made any gains.
The
S&P 500® index
(SPX) fell 37.42 points (0.61%) Monday to 6,052.85; the
Dow Jones Industrial Average®
($DJI) slipped 240.59 points (0.54%) to 44,401.93; and the
Nasdaq Composite®
($COMP) fell 123.08 points (0.62%) to 19,736.69.
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