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Charles Schwab's Nathan Peterson says the two main drivers behind the multi-day rally is trade deal optimism, and Big Tech earnings coming in better than expected. Nathan urges investors to keep an eye on tariff headlines. He says markets are growing complacent with recent trading action even though tariffs haven't manifested in corporate earnings or hard data yet.
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Anthony Ferry previews Amazon (AMZN) earnings before their release postmarket. He’s seeing purchase conversion dropping, citing a “conservative buyer” and noting that “trade down is happening” across the retail spectrum. He looks at the diversification in Amazon’s revenue and thinks it will continue to do well despite trade tensions.
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The SPX closes higher for its eighth straight session. Kevin Green notes investors holding the 50-day SMA in the index as a sign bulls want to push markets higher, though there is resistance ahead on the path back to all-time highs. One challenge is a still-high VIX waiting for a volatility crush. Kevin later turns to gold's selling action and how it's testing a notable support level.
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Charles Schwab’s James Kostulias focuses on market volatility and how it’s impacting confidence. He says Schwab saw “net selling” in April, but “no panic selling.” He also stresses higher client engagement since the market turmoil started and higher trading volumes. He also notes that options have picked up as a trading vehicle for retail investors.
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Ryan Patel raises the question, "how do you get to 20% [gains] by end of year?" His answer: maybe you don't. Ryan argues the SPX can close 6% to 8% higher by the end of the year, a historic norm not seen over the previous two years. On A.I., he says we're "not even at the starting inning" yet but believes Nvidia (NVDA) must lead the momentum. He also points to AMD Inc. (AMD) gaining momentum of its own.
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Advertising revenue will be key in Reddit's (RDDT) earnings, says LikeFolio's Megan Brantley. She says Reddit web visits have grown 80% year-over-year while Snapchat slipped 30% over the same period. Megan believes this "captive audience" gives advertisers, and Reddit, a chance to capitalize on consumers. However, the rate of growth will prove key in its after hour report.
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Mark Hamrick believes the economy is in a much better spot now than it was three years ago, despite soft data showing concern for the economy. He weighs sentiment against recent inflation and employment prints to discuss expectations on Friday's jobs report. Mark looks even further ahead to what it means for the Fed and future interest rate cuts.
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Michelle Gibley gives viewers the state of global central bank policy. “Trade policy is really influencing action at most central banks,” she says, noting that the Bank of Japan cut its inflation forecast and Canada’s central bank paused its cycle. She also talks about the “distortions” in economic data as companies and consumers pull forward demand ahead of tariffs, adding this could create a “vacuum” of useful data in the future. Michelle emphasizes the need for clarity on trade around the world.
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James Demmert and Dan Ahrens break down McDonald’s (MCD) earnings. James says investors shouldn’t focus too much on same-store sales falling and considers the company solid. Dan disagrees, saying his restaurant ETF, EATZ, is underweight McDonald’s. He “disagrees strongly” with the CEO’s comments that MCD is not losing market share to fast casual, pointing to Brinker’s (EAT) umbrella of brands. They also look at Shake Shack (SHAK), where James says their expansion is “coming back to haunt them” as margins compress.
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Jim Thorne says a recession “only happens if we have a shock to the system,” and doesn’t consider the tariffs a big enough shock. However, he does expect growth to slow and the Fed to ease rates – saying they’re currently “reckless” and late in cuts. He considers tech a defensive sector and thinks we’ll ultimately see an economic environment like pre-Covid. “Secular growth in bitcoin is the place to be in,” he argues.
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