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Kevin Green offers more insight into the Fed's "hawkish hike" on interest rates and Wall Street pricing in up to two additional hikes before the end of 2026. The headlines sent an "initial shock" to the S&P 500 (SPX) before an eventual reversal, though as KG explains, the 20-day and 50-day SMAs converging lead to a dicey trading scenario. He turns to the latest economic data and the correlation between AI chipmakers and hyperscalers.
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"Warsh really had to do what he was expected to do," says Rebecca Walser on the Fed's decision to hike interest rates by 25 bps. She says the FOMC's goal to reach 2% inflation "will never happen" due to AI hyperscaler CapEx ballooning, making the argument the committee needs a new benchmark. Rebecca explains how she sees the AI "capital wars" playing out in the years to come as Anthropic and OpenAI raise safety warnings. That said, she believes investors need to stay invested in AI-tied stocks.
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Shares in Lyft Inc. (LYFT) hit the brakes after Guggenheim downgraded the stock to neutral from buy and lowered its price target. George Tsilis explains why the analyst is easing its foot off the gas for Lyft. He then turns to a pair of price target hikes in Alphabet (GOOGL) and Salesforce (CRM), as analysts tied to those stocks see AI momentum benefitting both stocks.
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Danielle DiMartino Booth discusses the market reaction to the Fed raising interest rates for the first time since July 2023. She gauges questions around whether the average U.S. consumer will stomach the rate hike, or the start of a hiking cycle, as inflation pinches American wallets. Daneille adds to her analysis by discussing the growing importance of economic data like core PCE, CPI, and PPI for a Fed not as willing to divulge guidance on interest rates. She also offers a word of caution to investors in the AI trade.
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What Kevin Hincks has called a coiled market is finally springing up, saying the Fed's interest rate hike and crude oil sliding below $100 adds more clarity for investors. While Wall Street likes the certainty, Main Street will continue to face pressures due to lingering pressures the hike will have on the housing market. Kevin also discusses President Trump's expected meeting with Gulf leaders and the latest round of economic data.
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J.B. Hunt (JBHT) warned investors that it can see a cut in profits due to energy and other macro pressures mounting against the transport giant. Citizens still upgraded the stock to outperform. Rick Ducat turns to key support and resistance levels in the stock bull needs to watch. He then turns to an example options trade for J.B. Hunt.
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Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6D
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Arnim Holzer talks about the bond market's negative reaction to the Fed's interest rate hike Wednesday followed by Thursday's reversal to the upside in equities. He believes investors are coming to terms that the FOMC can't do a "one and done" rate hike, adding that the U.S. economy will stay strong even if a hiking cycle shapes up. Arnim also explains the disconnect between crude oil prices and refining issues that build pressure in the energy market.
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The Fed's 25 bps interest rate hike was expected, though the unanimous decision was not, says Michael Reinking. He highlights the "confusing story" he sees in what the FOMC projects to be a "timelier" return to 2% inflation. On the AI trade, Michael sees momentum very much intact, pointing to headlines from neoclouds like CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS) signaling demand is going nowhere.
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Investors woke up and bought into the post-Fed weakness following its decision to hike interest rates by 25 bps. Kevin Green discusses how he sees "ambiguity" in statements made by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Also on KG's radar: crude oil, which moved below $100 as China becomes more involved in dissolving tensions disrupting oil infrastructure. While a risk-on tone is kicking off Thursday's trading action, Lennar (LEN) shares moved slightly lower after the company posted a double miss in earnings.
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Guggenheim downgraded Lyft Inc. (LYFT) to neutral from buy, though as Ben Watson of Charles Schwab points out, the stock didn't react much to the headline. He weighs the stock's short-term moves against longer-term trends to explain why Lyft has a bumpy road ahead to reclaim bullish momentum.
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