Schwab Network

Jessica Inskip urges investors to keep tariff volatility in mind when adjusting your portfolio. She talks investors through how Fastenal (FAST), Costco (COST), and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) offer piece of mind as volatility stays high. Charles Schwab's own Ben Watson turns to the bullish and bearish technical trends.

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Talley Leger says a significant shift has occurred: “We haven’t seen this kind of lopsided sentiment and positioning” since major crises like in 2000 or 2008. He notes that in the company guidance that hasn’t been pulled yet, many are revising higher. “You don’t have to be too choosy, just buy everything,” he adds. He thinks the first impact of tariffs will be shown in the jobs data this week.

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Visa (V) is on deck to report earnings after the close. Caroline Woods talks about how the credit card company will highlight consumer spending trends. One metric she's keeping a close eye on: cross-border volume, which can offer another perspective into international travel. Tim Biggam turns to an example options trade in Visa.

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“Predicting interest rates is a fool’s errand.” Sean Dranfield examines the fixed income market, saying history shows Wall Street forecasts are right only around 10% of the time. “Try to build a diversified portfolio” that can benefit both ways, he advises, particularly in this time of substantial volatility.

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Honeywell (HON) popped after its earnings beat and raise, which Jonathan Sakraida attributes on its ability to navigate tariffs and lack of dependency to China. He talks about how the company did so by derisking its supply chain. On the other end, Jonathan sees Caterpillar (CAT) struggling, maintaining a neutral to bearish stance on the stock. Tom White offers example options trades in both companies.

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Amazon (AMZN) shares faced selling pressure after the White House called the company's decision to display tariff costs on products a "hostile and political act." Diane King Hall notes it's just the latest company following a formula. Hims & Hers (HIMS) rallied more than 25% after it joined a partnership with Novo Nordisk (NVO) to distribute Wegovy. Diane also turns to SoFi Technologies' (SOFI) post-earnings rally and Brinker's (EAT) sell-off.

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5,600 continues to be the level Kevin Green monitors as resistance for the SPX. While he sees investors holding ground, he points to the VIX v. front month VIX as a sign more selling pressure can hit the market. Kevin still believes there's potential for a VIX crush, just not this week.

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Jeffrey Kleintop reacts to the Canadian elections and notes that growth is forecast to be unaffected by the trade war. He notes that the last shipments from China ordered ahead of the tariffs should be arriving around now, so we should see financial impacts beginning in the middle of May. “We’re looking at a pretty big dry up in supply of goods,” he notes, looking at data on scheduled vessels. He also highlights “crisis-level” downward earnings revisions across the U.S. market.

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This morning's earnings movers saw down arrows ahead of the opening bell. Spotify (SPOT) was down as much as 7% when its bottom line saw a big miss despite healthy subscriber growth. Jenny Horne notes commentary from the CEO on Spotify's outlook spurring skepticism. UPS Inc. (UPS) beat on its earnings but plans to cut 20,000 jobs and close dozens of sites around the country.

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke at the podium as Kevin Hincks reported from the Cboe Global Markets. Bessent urged Americans to watch the hard data coming down the line, as Kevin points out strength in the latest prints. One weak spot came from General Motors (GM), which posted an earnings beat, though a postponed conference call and the company not accounting tariffs worried investors. Kevin says the next big development Americans will watch is the tax bill in Washington.

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