Schwab Network

Phil Kafarakis delves into Chipotle's (CMG) operational efficiencies and menu innovations to counter macroeconomic headwinds and food safety concerns, with international expansion as the real story. Tom White offers a tactical options strategy using a stock replacement method with deep in-the-money calls for those anticipating an upside move in the next 45 days.

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Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6D

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Crude oil over $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% are two pain points for the stock market, says Charles Schwab's Joe Mazzola. Both metrics don't just change market dynamics, but also serves as headwinds for future earnings should these overhangs persist. Joe points to AI's violent rotation as another dynamic to watch. Michelle Gibley turns to the global stage and discusses how some economies are mirroring the U.S. through their own interest rate hike talks. She sees European companies as strong buoys for portfolio diversifiers.

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James Demmert says economies across the world are seeing interest rate hikes, not just the U.S. He believes the Fed remains firm on pulling inflation down to 2%, something he doesn't expect incoming inflation data to change. Despite inflation challenges, James makes the case for a fourth-quarter rally, bolstered by AI growth, to close out 2026. James sets a year-end target of 8,100 for the S&P 500 (SPX).

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"The gold trade could actually be a favorable one," says Kevin Green, who believes bulls can regain if the Fed hikes interest rates in Wednesday's meeting. While unusual, KG also can't take a "game time decision" off the table for the Fed due to Wednesday's retail sales print hitting the wire before its decision. It all comes amid a shaky macro picture with crude oil prices fluctuating between $100 and $105. KG then discusses the Senate's "toss up vote" for the Clarity Act and analyzes price action in Bitcoin.

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Jordan Rizzuto, CIO of GammaRoad Capital Partners, weighs in on the Fed's impending rate hike and persistent inflation, then shifts to Japan's monetary policy and the potential unwind of the yen carry trade. He highlights the appeal of hard assets like metals and mining for real returns, and offers a cynical perspective on OpenAI's delayed IPO and its implications for the broader AI market.

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More and more, Eli Lilly (LLY) is being seen as the winner in the GLP-1 race over Novo (NVO), with Berenberg backing that thesis in its upgrade on the stock. Diane King Hall explains what the analyst sees in the forward momentum to join the bull camp. She then turns to Oppenheimer's upgrade on Etsy Inc. (ETSY) and the post-earnings plunge in Dave & Buster's (PLAY).

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Essex Investment Management Co-CEO Nancy Prial projects an S&P 500 (SPX) valuation of $8,000 in the coming year, pointing to healthcare and defense spending as key catalysts for growth. She also highlights Willdan Group (WLDN), Hinge Health (HNGE), and CECO Environmental (CECO) as attractive investment opportunities.

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Wall Street is bracing for a more than 90% chance the Fed will raise interest rates Wednesday. Kevin Hincks discusses how he sees the market moving should the FOMC raise rates for September and gauges whether it will start a rate hiking cycle. As for the AI trade, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang makes a pledge to President Trump that he won't allow an AI slowdown. Kevin also offers his insights on crude oil prices, which were flat ahead of Tuesday's session.

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Berenberg upgraded Eli Lilly (LLY) to buy from hold and boosted its price target to $1,400 from $1,220 as the healthcare giant extends its lead over Novo (NVO). Rick Ducat stacks the stock against its peers and shows how bulls can regain momentum in the stock following a slowdown in recent sessions. He turns to an example options trade for Eli Lilly.

======== Schwab Network ========

Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.

Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6D

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As the Fed begins its interest rate meeting, Brian Jacobsen believes we will get a rate hike even though he thinks the FOMC should hold. He adds that a hike will be more about "symbolism" instead of "substance" to show U.S. investors the Fed remains independent. Brian explains why he sees a hike adding more headwinds for U.S. consumers. In equities, he expects a greater market pullback following rallies across tech during earnings season.

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