Schwab Network

Charles Schwab's Cooper Howard says Friday's nonfarm payrolls report confirms a lot of speculation surrounding a slower labor market. He adds that June's report being revised down only adds to the weakness narrative. Cooper expects the FOMC to cut 25bps on interest rates in September but says he'll be "surprised" to see 50bps based on where inflation currently stands. However, he makes the case for more cuts before the end of the year.

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Phillip Streible examines the commodities market following a weak jobs report that sent 10-year Treasury yields to a low not seen since April. He discusses the potential for a 50 basis point interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting and its impact on gold prices, which have rallied to record highs. He also weighs in on the likelihood of gold reaching $5000 an ounce.

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Early turbulence on Friday led to consolidation throughout the rest of the day in the SPX. Kevin Green goes deeper into the technicals through the one-year weekly chart in SPX futures, highlighting how continuing consolidation can flash bearish signals ahead. On tech, Kevin turns to the sector's SPDR ETF (XLK) and shows how a bearish MACD cross can derail bullish traction.

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Despite a lackluster jobs report, Jordan Shapiro sees reasons to be optimistic about the U.S. labor market. He attributes job losses in manufacturing, government, and other sectors to cyclical factors rather than sector-specific challenges. Shapiro also notes that the long-term unemployed number is a concern, but sees it as a sign of a shifting labor market rather than a crack in the economy. He expects the Federal Reserve to make a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, and possibly another one later this year, which could help stimulate hiring and economic growth.

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Jason Blackwell shares his insights on the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut. Blackwell believes a 25 basis point cut is more likely than 50 basis points, as the Fed aims to balance both sides of its mandate. He thinks the labor market is softer but not falling out of bed, and expects a recovery due to seasonality and hiring. He suggests investors consider high-quality, short-to-intermediate duration bonds and focus on quality within their equity portfolios, rather than relying on the AI cycle.

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Patrick Mueller and Amy Glaser give their takeaways from the jobs report. Patrick thinks that jobs will begin to uptick from here. Amy agrees and is “gearing up for the September surge,” looking at pulled-forward seasonal hiring. Patrick doesn’t give “much credence” to the idea that the shift in employment is a structural change rather than cyclical, citing manufacturing returning to the U.S. He actually expects employment to “explode,” but thinks that before we get there, things might get a tough.

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Aydin Kilic, CEO of HIVE Digital (HIVE), talks about how his company has quadrupled revenue over the past year. He credits the company's expansion from mining 6 Bitcoin a day to 9 -- which he says translates to $1 million daily revenue for HIVE. Aydin expects that number to grow into the fall and sees room to run when it comes to a re-rating of the stock price. He also explains HIVE's partnership with Nvidia (NVDA) and its role for HIVE's outlook.

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"Electricity will run the economy moving forward," says Rob Thummel, who sees a 75% increase in electricity demand from now through 2050. A.I. lies at the center of that exponential demand, and Rob believes the U.S. needs to invest more in electricity producers and infrastructure to maintain A.I. leadership. He talks about how companies like Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST) are seen as key players and how renewables like nuclear and solar fit into the picture.

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John Buckingham takes the value-oriented approach, and he “likes what he’s seen” for those assets this week. “Investors should really focus on the long haul” right now, he advises, noting that there are attractive opportunities within the market despite the broad indices making all-time highs. He likes Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Merck (MCK) in pharmaceuticals, Whirlpool (WHR) – and tells investors to “get granular.”

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After Oracle (ORCL) rallied almost 40% so far in 2025, Marley Kayden points to high expectations for the stock to continue its impressive rally. Growth acceleration in cloud is what she considers to be the main metric for investors to watch for to justify the rally in shares. Marley later turns to analyst commentary and explains why they lean vastly bullish on Oracle.

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