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Ed Siddell emphasizes rules-based investing – but also adjusting rules as the market conditions change. He likes technology and AI, arguing we are still in the “early innings” of their rise; he “loves” small caps as well. He warns investors not to try to “time the market,” but instead stay disciplined as the market weakens to begin September. Ed is betting on the Fed cutting a “minimum of 50 basis points” by the end of the year, which he expects to spur markets and mortgage demand, boosting the financial sector.
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Alphabet (GOOGL) rallied off a U.S. district court judge ruling that the company can keep its Google Chrome browser. Cory Johnson makes the case that it's bearish for Alphabet. He talks about the lost investment opportunity a divestment may have opened for investors and argues Google's search dominance is still monopolistic in the industry. Cory later talks about the role reports of a Perplexity bid into Chrome had for the development. He also notes a potential Mag 7 partnership that can blossom between Alphabet and Apple (AAPL).
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Charlie O’Shea and Katherine Black break down Macy’s (M) earnings as the stock rallies. Katherine thinks Macy’s is doing well in its “brands space,” with popular heritage brands fueling strength. She also notes that middle-income consumers are still spending and make up a lot of Macy’s shoppers. Charlie argues that this turnaround has “more legs” as core competitors remain weak: “this is the time for Macy’s. If they’re ever going to pull it off, it’s now.” However, he warns against Macy’s closing stores, noting that closures impact e-commerce sales negatively.
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Mish Schneider says the markets lately have been weighed by their weakest links, which she says are transportation and semiconductors. She expects volatility to continue and urges investors to "tread lightly" but doesn't see bears taking hold of the narrative. Mish believes gold has reemerged as a "true commodity" in its recent breakout following months of consolidation. On stocks, she sees the "vanity trade" gaining bullish traction and points to Eli Lilly (LLY) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) as beneficiaries.
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Seema Shah discusses the relaunched ESPN app ahead of football season, noting a “huge surge” of downloads and active users over the prior 30 days. She also notes a jump in “resurrected users.” There’s a lot more to make the app engaging, and Disney has spent “a huge portion” of its ad budget on ESPN, Seema says, both of which are helping with the uptick.
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Likefolio’s Megan Brantley shares their consumer sentiment data on Walt Disney (DIS). They have the most data on streaming services and park. Megan says Disney+ is doing “the best job” among all streamers. However, Hulu is lagging, which she thinks may be due to the reorganization of the Disney+ app. “They’re essentially reinventing cable,” she adds, noting its focus on live sports. On the other hand, parks are weaker as she sees web visits losing momentum. The strength in parks is that consumers are spending more year-over-year, Megan posits.
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Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares fell despite a solid Q2 earnings report as investors questioned the sustainability of its results and expressed concerns about the impact of tariffs on margins. Arun Sundaram of CFRA Research attributes the stock's weakness to the cautious outlook and notes that Dollar Tree's decision to raise prices to $3-$5 price points to attract higher-income households may erode its value proposition. Meanwhile, Stephanie Cegielski of ICSC believes that consumers will continue to seek out discounts and bargains, particularly during the holiday season, which could benefit Dollar Tree and similar retailers.
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TheoTrade's Don Kaufman is back to give his bearish perspective in Exxon Mobil (XOM), citing short-term overbought momentum and a potentially dicey nonfarm payrolls print later in the week shaking up the stock. On Intel (INTC), he doesn't see the government's 10% stake in the company helping it long-term. However, Don leans bullish on McDonald's (MCD) as a beneficiary of capital rotation. Don offers example options trades for all three names while Rick Ducat offers technical analysis for the charts.
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Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6D
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Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (Grupo BMV) CEO Jorge Alegria joins us to discuss the exchange's 20% year-to-date gain, outpacing the S&P 500. Alegria attributes this success to a shift in investor interest towards emerging markets and Mexico's attractive valuations. He highlights the BMV's efforts to modernize and increase its global reach through partnerships with NASDAQ and AWS. Alegria also emphasizes the growing importance of cloud infrastructure and its role in Mexico's financial structure.
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Noah Yosif from the American Staffing Association reacts to the JOLTS report and gauges the health of the labor market. He discusses sectors that “buck the trend,” including in the government and in areas that have “severe shortages” like healthcare, where wages are pressured higher. “A rate cut is definitely penciled in,” Noah says, and thinks the JOLTS report only boosts that sentiment. “The longer that this [hiring] freeze lasts,” he adds, the more conditions will likely deteriorate for job seekers as more corporations add AI and cut positions in other ways.
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