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There are opportunities in fixed income, says Charles Schwab's Cooper Howard, "though we wouldn't get ahead of the steamroller" as risks remain for the bond market. He explains how the Fed shaping its interest rate cycle isn't necessarily a sign for bond bulls to run. Cooper tells investors to watch PCE as the key data point to watch this week. Michelle Gibley talks about the diesel price hikes driven by inflation woes have hit global economies, include Australia's shifting views on interest rates. The tentative U.S. export ban on diesel is something she sees having international trickle effects as well.
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Brad Warden sees the market wrestling with AI anxieties as Nvidia (NVDA) pushes back on slowdown talk and the Mag 7 face questions about high CapEx and lower returns. He says early signs of AI monetization are emerging through consumer apps like Meta Platforms' (META) Muse, and his Transformational Technologies ETF looks beyond semiconductors into healthcare and upcoming AI-native IPOs.
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Consumer confidence hit lows not seen since the COVID-19 era, says Kevin Green when looking at the September report's huge downturn. He explains how a widening K-shaped economy adds to the pressures on the lower end of income brackets. Also hitting the wire: JOLTS, which also saw a downtick between August and September. KG then touches on reports of the Anthropic IPO prospectus, which warns of the firm's technology posing "existential risk to humanity."
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David Kudla, CEO at Mainstay Capital Management, says stellar earnings growth is keeping stocks near highs despite rising bond yields. He sees 6% on the ten-year Treasury as a real possibility and prefers commodities over bonds, highlighting the Harbor Commodity ETF, VanEck commodities fund, AI plays like ISE, CHAT, and WAR, and emerging market ETFs EMQ and FRDM with AI exposure through Taiwan and South Korea.
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Carnival (CCL) shares cruised on an earnings beat and strong guidance, says George Tsilis, who points to the company's yields as the cruise line's strongest metric. CarMax (KMX) sacrificed some margin power to boost earnings, an effort that investors rewarded with a rally. George then notes moves among analysts after Deutsche Bank upgraded Netflix (NFLX).
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Crude oil's dip toward $90, paired with a slight downtick in Treasury yields, are the formula behind some bullish momentum into Tuesday's trading day, says Kevin Hincks. That said, mind a slew of inflation and jobs data hitting the back half of the week, along with Micron (MU) earnings Wednesday. He discusses the data investors got this morning with the Case-Shiller and FHFA home price indexes. On the radar this afternoon: leaders from Meta Platforms (META), Anthropic, and OpenAI will meet with President Trump.
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Mike Sanders sees attractive entry points with ten-year Treasury yields at 5% and high quality bank bonds over 6%. He urges investors to lock in yields for five to ten years despite a higher for longer environment driven by energy inflation, fiscal deficits, and AI CapEx. Sanders stresses being a bond picker rather than buying everything, since tight spreads mean solid yields can be found without reaching into lower quality.
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Deutsche Bank upgraded Netflix (NFLX) to buy from hold as it sees improving user engagement for the streaming giant. The stock is currently trading near its 52-week low following a more than 40% decline in shares year-over-year. Rick Ducat takes investors through his technical analysis of the stock chart to show where bulls can reclaim the edge in momentum. He then turns to an example options trade for Netflix.
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Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6D
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Carley Garner says investors are not hearing about a lot of the headlines pointing to crude oil weakness due to all the news around the U.S.-Iran war and Strait of Hormuz. She discusses how developments in Venezuela and OPEC will push back crude oil's recent climb in markets. Carley also talks about the seasonality of oil and how the recent rally is the third over the last twenty years showing what she considers "overblown" price action.
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"This is not 2022," says Eric Diton when discussing the Fed's interest rate hike, saying, "a lot of this is being driven by the Iran war." Should this latest hike be the first of several, Eric doesn't see a situation where it goes to the extend it did years ago. He adds that equities will remain resilient due to the AI trade's continuing strength, though he does share concerns that bad market breadth will lead to lasting volatility.
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