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Ahmed Riesgo expects the market to shrug off the latest tariff news and believes the worst of the trade war fears are behind us. He thinks the Fed will cut rates at least twice, potentially three times, this year. He also sees underlying weakness in the labor market despite the strong jobs report.
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Radware (RDWR) hit a 3-year high after Wolfe initiated coverage on the Israeli cybersecurity company with an outperform rating. Charles Schwab's Ben Watson takes a closer look into Radware's chart and financials to explain how the company is "relatively cheap" compared to others in its sector. However, Ben also notes the challenges Radware has moving forward.
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“Anything is on the table, anything is possible” from this administration around critical minerals and sectors, says Joe Cavatoni of the World Gold Council in reaction to Trump’s latest tariff announcements. He explains why gold prices have been stagnant recently despite trade talk news. “We need to see some real fundamental changes to break out of this range right now,” he adds.
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Charles Schwab's Cooper Howard says this week's jobless claims data will be the next key data point investors will need to watch. With tariff dates moving later and uncertain inflation impact yet to be felt, Cooper believes the Fed will face an uncertain path for cutting rates by the September meeting. Later, he discusses global trends in yields and provides the case for why the U.S. yield curve will likely steepen this year.
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Rick Ducat breaks down the mixed trading session by diving into the techncials. On the NDX, he warns of bearish divergence taking shape after the index recently broke new all-time highs. However, Rick notes bullish potential for Intel (INTC) signaled by options activity.
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Owen Carr, Chief Merchandising Officer for Spreetail, discusses Amazon (AMZN) Prime Day season and how it has influenced the retail sector. He says with the expansion to four days, sellers are spreading deals out, leading to a lower first day peak. Coming closer to July 4 than last year, he thinks consumers will be buying more summer products than back-to-school. He expects growth rates in the 20%-30% vs last year over the 4-day period and thinks retailers like Walmart (WMT) that are running their own sales expect the same levels.
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James St. Aubin gives his expectations for 2Q earnings season and what he’s hoping to see in company guidance in particular. He digs into the state of the labor market and what he thinks the Fed’s next moves will be. He notes that continuous claims are at the highest level since 2021, arguing that there are “cracks” below the surface in U.S. jobs. He calls valuation the market’s biggest risk factor.
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Kevin Horner is back for Technical Tuesday! On the S&P 500 (SPX), he highlights the 20-day moving average and the index’s recent “impressive move.” For ASML (ASML), he notes three consecutive bull flags and a golden cross. Rigetti Computing’s (RGTI) stock was pushed back to its 50-day moving average and recently broke a downtrend line.
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"Money is still too hard to move around the world," argues Mark Greenberg. That thought is why he's not surprised to see stablecoins growing substantially over the last year. Mark expects added regulation like the GENIUS Act to give cryptocurrencies a tailwind into the second half of 2025. CoinDesk's Andy Baehr expects Bitcoin to trade sideways for the summer, pointing out that it has traded in a 10% range for the last 62 sessions. He also explains how stablecoins can add a "chess piece" to U.S. treasuries.
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Phil Blancato thinks large caps are priced to perfection, but there are still opportunities in small caps. He says the latter will “rip higher” if the Fed cuts rates in September. He was “never bought into the rhetoric” of Liberation Day tariffs, arguing that Trump would never deliberately hurt the U.S. economy like that. He likes Amazon (AMZN), citing diversified revenue and a competitive retail arm. He’s also bullish on Costco (COST), calling it an “anchor” stock that one can “set and forget.”
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