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Owen Carr, Chief Merchandising Officer for Spreetail, discusses Amazon (AMZN) Prime Day season and how it has influenced the retail sector. He says with the expansion to four days, sellers are spreading deals out, leading to a lower first day peak. Coming closer to July 4 than last year, he thinks consumers will be buying more summer products than back-to-school. He expects growth rates in the 20%-30% vs last year over the 4-day period and thinks retailers like Walmart (WMT) that are running their own sales expect the same levels.
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James St. Aubin gives his expectations for 2Q earnings season and what he’s hoping to see in company guidance in particular. He digs into the state of the labor market and what he thinks the Fed’s next moves will be. He notes that continuous claims are at the highest level since 2021, arguing that there are “cracks” below the surface in U.S. jobs. He calls valuation the market’s biggest risk factor.
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Kevin Horner is back for Technical Tuesday! On the S&P 500 (SPX), he highlights the 20-day moving average and the index’s recent “impressive move.” For ASML (ASML), he notes three consecutive bull flags and a golden cross. Rigetti Computing’s (RGTI) stock was pushed back to its 50-day moving average and recently broke a downtrend line.
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"Money is still too hard to move around the world," argues Mark Greenberg. That thought is why he's not surprised to see stablecoins growing substantially over the last year. Mark expects added regulation like the GENIUS Act to give cryptocurrencies a tailwind into the second half of 2025. CoinDesk's Andy Baehr expects Bitcoin to trade sideways for the summer, pointing out that it has traded in a 10% range for the last 62 sessions. He also explains how stablecoins can add a "chess piece" to U.S. treasuries.
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Phil Blancato thinks large caps are priced to perfection, but there are still opportunities in small caps. He says the latter will “rip higher” if the Fed cuts rates in September. He was “never bought into the rhetoric” of Liberation Day tariffs, arguing that Trump would never deliberately hurt the U.S. economy like that. He likes Amazon (AMZN), citing diversified revenue and a competitive retail arm. He’s also bullish on Costco (COST), calling it an “anchor” stock that one can “set and forget.”
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The Charles Schwab STAX increased slightly to 40.66 from 39.68. Joe Mazzola highlights what's driving the bullish uptick. He mentions that investors bought into Tesla (TSLA) when it dipped in early June, while others steadily bought Amazon (AMZN). Joe labels Palantir (PLTR) as a "retail darling," signaling a return to risk-on trade. However, he adds that investors remain cautions of trade headlines out of Washington.
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CoreWeave (CRWV) got hit with multiple downgrades after it announced a $9 billion all-stock deal to acquire Core Scientific (CORZ). The stock sold off more today. Marley Kayden notes the analyst commentary as bearish short-term but sees long-term opportunity for the company. Volatility is another anchor tethering some analysts to the sidelines.
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Daniel Rubino of Windows Central says Nvidia (NVDA) is doing "quite well" in the A.I. space as companies start applying the tech to everyday life. He says bigger companies are boosting efficiency by cutting their workforce, pointing to Microsoft's (MSFT) layoffs as an example. However, Daniel elaborates on a bump in the road with Samsung forecasting worse-than-expected profit due to curbs on U.S. A.I. chips. As for Apple (AAPL), he believes the company needs to catch up.
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Likefolio’s Andy Swan shares their consumer sentiment data on Airbnb (ABNB). He notes web visits down 10% year-over-year as hotels seem to be gaining. “Airbnb is clearly losing share to traditional hotels…the luster has worn off.” App engagement is also down 3% since last year despite innovative features, and a foray into AI doesn’t seem to be helping.
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Today's panel sees companies like Tesla (TSLA) and Rivian (RIVN) suffering from the Big, Beautiful Bill removing tax credits for EVs. Chris Beauchamp says it's really hard to incentivize Americans currently using gas-powered cars to switch to electric. Hatem Dhiab adds that people don't know enough about EVs, and won't want to without incentive.
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