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Microsoft (MSFT) cut 9,000 workers from its company in what Christopher P. Davis calls a "capital allocation decision." He says the Mag 7 giant is "the leader" of the mega cap companies and seeks to maintain its lead through cloud strength and enterprise acceleration. However, Christopher sees Oracle (ORCL) "nipping at the heels" of Microsoft when it comes to price.
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Matt Maley says that when there are big market scares in the spring, they often come back to bite traders in the fall. “I’m a little less bullish than I think some people are.” He thinks investors should put some cash on the sidelines for a bit and makes the argument why. “The ones with cash on the sidelines aren’t the ones who sell at the bottom – it’s the ones who are fully invested.”
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Joe Hegener thinks the market will hit highs in the second half of the year, but likens conditions to a “game of musical chairs.” One of his hot takes is that the euro won’t exist in ten years – he thinks the Eurozone will look substantially different in the next decade as populist sentiment sweeps through its members. He also says that traditional automakers will “go the way of the Blackberry,” arguing that they’ve taken on too much debt to get into lithium-ion batteries when the next generation is already coming.
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John Lonski and Daniel Zhao give their perspective on the job market after the ADP employment report posted a surprise negative. John expects rates to fall as jobs weaken and says tariffs could have a bigger economic impact than expected. Daniel notes his firm Glassdoor’s employee confidence survey has hit lows, and also expects the jobs market to keep weakening. He argues that if the economy was stronger, AI companies would be hiring more, instead of tech companies laying off workers.
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Several quantum stocks like Rigetti Computing (RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), and IonQ Inc. (IONQ) rallied after Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with buy ratings. George Tsilis notes the risk-reward outlook remains highs for the stocks, but warns investors not to get lost in the industry as it becomes crowded.
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Hayley Berg previews 4th of July travel trends. She expects 4% more flights year over year, as well as busier roads. Rental car prices are up, but not as bad as we’ve seen. The most popular destinations include New York City, Seattle, and Miami – but people are also traveling internationally. “Prices are down almost across the board” for international flights, she notes. She also gives some of her tips for cheaper travel.
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How much money is too much money for Meta Platforms (META) to spend on A.I.? Andy Swan with LikeFolio tackles that question by looking at the company's extensive history with acquisitions, including Meta's $1 billion purchase of Instagram in 2012. Andy offers his thesis on why investors can "buy dips until further notice."
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Gerald Pascarelli and Nick Raich break down Constellation Brands (STZ) earnings, which missed expectations on the top and bottom line. Nick notes that the guidance is “less bad” than it was last quarter, suggesting the worst may be behind it from here. Gerald notes that the guidance is calling for a trend reversal that he’s not sure they can pull off, especially after a weaker June.
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Aaron Brachman thinks the economy is generally in a good spot and the Fed is doing “exactly the right thing.” He thinks inflation is “mostly under control” and unemployment is still “pretty low” despite the negative ADP employment report this morning. Thus, he argues it would be “kind of silly” to cut rates right now and give up leverage over the economy for later.
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On today's Big 3, TheoTrade's Don Kaufman offers three bearish takes and example options trades. He sees a "long road to the downside" Oklo Inc. (OKLO) until it posts profits. Don adds that Meta Platforms (META) will continue its reversal into the red and sees the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) falling as investors "underprice" tariff risk. Rick Ducat dives into the charts to show investors the bearish and bullish signals.
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