In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong CEO & CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack the market reaction to the escalating conflict involving Iran and why investors may be focusing on the wrong risk.

When geopolitical shocks hit, markets tend to do what they always do: sell first and ask questions later. But history suggests most conflicts don't leave a lasting mark on markets. The real question isn't the headlines, it's whether this turns into something more consequential. The answer, as Tyler explains, comes down to one key transmission channel: oil.

This episode is a crash course in how oil shocks impact the global economy, from inflation and central bank policy to growth and market stability. They also tackle the bigger question: are we facing a 1970s-style energy crisis, or is today's global economy more resilient than investors fear?

From Trump-era "TACO" trade dynamics to the evolution of supply-driven inflation shocks, this conversation cuts through the noise and focuses on what really matters.

Because in moments like this, it's not about reacting to headlines. It's about understanding which risks actually move markets.

Episode Timestamps

00:00 – Opening monologue: Markets, uncertainty, and why this moment feels different

02:15 – Setting the stage: What's happening with Iran and global markets

05:00 – Initial market reaction: Sell first, ask questions later

07:30 – Do geopolitical events actually matter for markets?

10:15 – The real transmission mechanism: Why oil is everything

13:30 – Oil shocks explained: How they impact inflation and growth

17:00 – Are we heading back to a 1970s-style energy crisis?

20:30 – Why today's economy is more resilient to oil shocks

24:00 – Supply shocks vs demand shocks: A new market regime

27:30 – Trump, TACO trades, and policy uncertainty

30:30 – What markets are missing right now

33:30 – Key signals to watch: oil curve, inflation expectations, financial conditions

37:00 – The role of the US dollar in times of stress

39:30 – Portfolio implications: what investors should (and shouldn't) do

42:30 – Why it may be too early to de-risk portfolios

45:00 – Final thoughts: reacting vs staying disciplined

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

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For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, [email protected]