Global Thinking

Bond yields are surging. Oil prices remain elevated. Tariffs, geopolitics and inflation continue to dominate the headlines. Investors are stressed. And yet, the bull market keeps going.

So what exactly are investors supposed to make of all this?

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast host, Rob Duncan, sits down with Forstrong CIO, Tyler Mordy, to separate the signals that matter from the headlines that don't.

They tackle the return of 5% bond yields, why today's interest rates may be far less extraordinary than they appear, and why strong economic growth and corporate profits tell a very different story than the one dominating financial headlines.

But the conversation quickly gets bigger than bonds. Rob and Tyler discuss the lingering psychological scars of the Global Financial Crisis and pandemic, why investors repeatedly become fixated on the latest macro shock, the upcoming U.S. midterms, and why bad news can lead to bad investment decisions.

They also explore Forstrong's broadening bull market thesis and opportunities beyond the usual market leaders, including emerging-market debt, gold miners and a market Tyler believes investors are still largely ignoring: Japan.

The world has never been short of things to worry about.

The harder question for investors is knowing which ones actually matter.

Chapters

01:06 What's moving markets? 02:00 Why bond yields are surging 05:03 Can the economy handle higher rates? 07:28 Why investors are so stressed 08:08 From TINA to TARA and CINDY 11:15 Bad news and big portfolio mistakes 12:55 U.S. midterms and market volatility 15:36 Investor scar tissue and the wall of worry 18:34 The broadening bull market 19:44 Gold miners and emerging-market debt 20:39 Why Tyler is bullish on Japan 23:36 Closing thoughts

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes.

For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, [email protected]

A young hedge fund manager built his entire investment thesis around one idea: artificial intelligence would reshape the world. His conviction was so strong he named his fund Situational Awareness. For a while, it looked brilliant. Then reality intervened.

What does that teach investors today?

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong CEO and CIO Tyler Mordy to discuss his latest paper, Situational Unawareness: Staying Cool in a Hot Money World, and why today's biggest investment challenge isn't a lack of information. It's knowing which signals deserve your attention and which headlines are simply noise.

From the war in Iran and volatile oil prices to gold, inflation, interest rates and the AI boom, Rob and Tyler examine the stories dominating markets and explain which ones are likely to have lasting investment implications. They also explore why leadership within AI is broadening beyond the Magnificent 7, how Asia is becoming increasingly central to the semiconductor supply chain, and whether investors should be looking beyond the United States for the next generation of market leaders.

The conversation concludes with a practical discussion about portfolio positioning in an environment where information travels instantly, narratives change overnight, and adaptability may be the most valuable investment skill of all.

Because in today's markets, the greatest edge isn't predicting the future. It's knowing what actually matters.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction

01:07 Situational Unawareness: Why Investors Miss What Matters

05:18 Iran, Oil and Why Markets Stayed Calm

10:42 Gold, Inflation and the New Economic Reality

16:28 Kevin Warsh and the Future of Interest Rates

22:14 AI's Next Chapter: Beyond the Magnificent 7

28:46 The Chip Boom: Why Asia Is Becoming the AI Powerhouse

35:20 Is the Great Rotation Finally Here?

41:18 Canada: Recession, Resilience and Productivity

47:52 The Rise of the Rest: Europe, Japan and Emerging Markets

54:40 What Investors Are Still Getting Wrong

59:35 Portfolio Positioning: Staying Cool in a Hot Money World

1:04:30 Final Thoughts: Signal Over Noise

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes.

For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, [email protected]

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong CEO and CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack one of the biggest investment themes of 2026: The Great Rebuilding.

While investors have spent the year reacting to wars, tariffs, inflation scares, and shifting central bank expectations, Tyler argues these aren't isolated events. They're all part of a much larger transformation taking place beneath the surface of the global economy.

From rebuilding supply chains and defence capabilities to massive investments in AI infrastructure and energy security, governments and corporations around the world are entering a new era of capital spending. At the same time, investors are beginning to question long-held assumptions about U.S. exceptionalism as international markets take on a greater leadership role.

Rob and Tyler discuss:

• Why "The Great Rebuilding" could define the next decade
• Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve and the outlook for interest rates
• Why inflation may remain more persistent than investors expect
• The challenge to U.S. market leadership
• Korea, Taiwan and the resurgence of international markets
• AI's infrastructure boom and what investors are missing
• Canada's economic outlook and why productivity still matters
• What today's headlines really mean for long-term portfolios

Every week brings another crisis, another tariff, another geopolitical shock. Yet markets keep moving higher. Why? Because the biggest story isn't the latest headline. It's the rebuilding of the global economy happening underneath it all.

Thanks for listening.

Time Stamps

01:07 Welcome back to Global Thinking

02:33 The first half of the year in two words: The Great Rebuilding

05:15 Kevin Warsh, the Fed and why higher-for-longer rates may be here to stay

09:10 Inflation isn't dead. Why markets may be underestimating inflation risk.

13:20 The challenge to U.S. exceptionalism

17:45 Korea, Taiwan and why international markets are quietly taking leadership

22:10 AI isn't just a technology story. It's an infrastructure boom.

26:30 Canada's technical recession and productivity problem

31:00 Iran, oil shocks and why markets didn't panic

35:40 What investors should actually be doing today

39:30 Final thoughts: What could surprise investors over the next year?

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes.

For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, [email protected]

For more than a decade, investors have been rewarded for a simple strategy: buy U.S. stocks, own big technology companies, and trust that American exceptionalism would continue to drive markets higher.

But what if that playbook is beginning to change?

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, Rob Duncan sits down with Sébastien Mc Mahon, Chief Economist at iA Financial Group, to discuss the forces reshaping the global investment landscape. From geopolitical tensions and energy markets to AI-driven productivity gains and the resurgence of international equities, they explore why the next phase of the market cycle may look very different from the last.

Rob and Seb discuss:

• Why markets continue to climb despite geopolitical uncertainty
• Whether U.S. exceptionalism is beginning to fade
• The growing case for international diversification
• Canada's productivity challenge and economic outlook
• AI, capital spending, and the future of global growth
• The biggest mistakes investors are making today

As investors grapple with shifting narratives, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the world is becoming more multipolar, and portfolios may need to evolve alongside it.

Episode Timestamps

00:00 Introduction and market backdrop

02:15 What's the biggest thing markets are misunderstanding?

05:10 Iran, geopolitics, and the real impact of oil shocks

08:45 Why this cycle looks different from the 1970s

11:20 Is U.S. exceptionalism starting to fade?

15:00 International markets and the global rotation trade

18:30 AI, productivity, and the next capex cycle

22:15 Canada's productivity challenge

26:30 Portfolio implications for investors

29:00 Biggest mistakes investors are making today

31:00 Closing thoughts and outlook

Resources

Why Nations Fail by Darren Asimoglu - https://www.amazon.com/Why-Nations-Fail-Institutions-Rule/dp/0307719227

Power and Progress by Darren Asimoglu - https://www.amazon.com/Power-Progress-Technology-History-Change/dp/XXXXXX

Speaker

Sebastien McMahon - https://www.linkedin.com/in/sebastien-mcmahon/

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes.

For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, [email protected]

Markets are rallying. Oil is rising. War is ongoing.

And yet, investors seem to be moving on.

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong Lead Portfolio Manager David Kletz to unpack the biggest question facing markets today. Is this resilience — or complacency?

While headlines focus on conflict in the Middle East, the real story is unfolding beneath the surface. Oil shocks are feeding into inflation, central banks are losing flexibility, and market leadership is beginning to shift in ways that could redefine this cycle.

But history offers a warning. Most geopolitical crises feel like turning points. Very few actually are.

Rob and David break down what matters and what doesn't:

• Why this isn't the 1970s
• How oil shocks really impact markets
• Why global growth may be stronger than it looks
• The risks hiding in valuations and market concentration
• And where investors should be looking for opportunity

Because in markets, the biggest mistakes often come from focusing on what feels urgent — instead of what actually drives returns.

Chapters

00:10 - Introduction to Global Thinking

01:07 - Market Overview: Iran Shock and Oil Prices

02:23 - Discussion with David Klutz: Market Resilience vs. Complacency

03:52 - Impact of Oil Prices on Global Growth

05:19 - Inflation and Interest Rates Outlook

07:43 - Global Market Trends and Canadian Economy

14:01 - Focus on Japan and China

33:56 - Four Strong's Global Investment Perspective

38:44 - Closing Remarks and Book Recommendation

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes.

For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, [email protected]

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, host Rob Duncan sits down with Dr. Joe Nelesen from S&P Dow Jones Indices to break down the SPIVA Canada 2025 report and what it reveals about active vs passive investing.

The data is clear. Most active managers underperform their benchmarks — not just in 2025, but over longer time horizons. This raises a critical question for investors and advisors alike. Is it still worth chasing alpha?

Rob and Joe explore:

• Why active managers consistently struggle to beat the market
• The role of fees, market efficiency, and survivorship bias
• Where active investing may still have an edge
• The continued rise of ETFs and index investing
• How AI, tokenization, and evolving market structure could shape the future

Whether you are a portfolio manager, financial advisor, or individual investor, this episode provides a data-driven look at one of the most important debates in investing today.

If you are building portfolios in today's market, understanding the trade-offs between active and passive investing has never been more important.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Global Thinking Podcast

02:31 Understanding the SPIVA Report Card

04:35 Performance of Active Managers in 2025

09:00 Factors Leading to Underperformance

13:11 The Role of Fees and Market Dynamics

17:40 Survivorship Bias in Active Management

19:44 The Future of Active Management

24:34 Active vs. Passive Investment Strategies

28:56 The Impact of Fund Selection

29:21 The Rise of Index Investing

30:43 Passive vs Active Investing Dynamics

32:23 Tokenization and Market Evolution

33:18 Future of Market Hours

35:07 The Future of Active vs Index Investing

37:58 AI's Role in Investment Strategies

41:54 Insights on Indices and Reading Recommendations

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes.

For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, [email protected]

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong CEO & CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack the market reaction to the escalating conflict involving Iran and why investors may be focusing on the wrong risk.

When geopolitical shocks hit, markets tend to do what they always do: sell first and ask questions later. But history suggests most conflicts don't leave a lasting mark on markets. The real question isn't the headlines, it's whether this turns into something more consequential. The answer, as Tyler explains, comes down to one key transmission channel: oil.

This episode is a crash course in how oil shocks impact the global economy, from inflation and central bank policy to growth and market stability. They also tackle the bigger question: are we facing a 1970s-style energy crisis, or is today's global economy more resilient than investors fear?

From Trump-era "TACO" trade dynamics to the evolution of supply-driven inflation shocks, this conversation cuts through the noise and focuses on what really matters.

Because in moments like this, it's not about reacting to headlines. It's about understanding which risks actually move markets.

Episode Timestamps

00:00 – Opening monologue: Markets, uncertainty, and why this moment feels different

02:15 – Setting the stage: What's happening with Iran and global markets

05:00 – Initial market reaction: Sell first, ask questions later

07:30 – Do geopolitical events actually matter for markets?

10:15 – The real transmission mechanism: Why oil is everything

13:30 – Oil shocks explained: How they impact inflation and growth

17:00 – Are we heading back to a 1970s-style energy crisis?

20:30 – Why today's economy is more resilient to oil shocks

24:00 – Supply shocks vs demand shocks: A new market regime

27:30 – Trump, TACO trades, and policy uncertainty

30:30 – What markets are missing right now

33:30 – Key signals to watch: oil curve, inflation expectations, financial conditions

37:00 – The role of the US dollar in times of stress

39:30 – Portfolio implications: what investors should (and shouldn't) do

42:30 – Why it may be too early to de-risk portfolios

45:00 – Final thoughts: reacting vs staying disciplined

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes.

For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, [email protected]

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, host Rob Duncan sits down with Nimar Bangesh of Obsiido to unpack one of the most infuriating developments in Canadian investing this year: fund gating.

After years of rapid growth, private markets have become mainstream in Canadian portfolios. But recent gating events have forced investors to confront a hard truth — liquidity in alternatives isn't guaranteed. Is this simply how private markets are designed to function, or is it a warning sign that investor expectations have drifted too far from reality?

Rob and Nimar break down the evolution of alternatives in Canada, the role they play in portfolio construction, and where the risks may be hiding. They explore whether the industry oversold accessibility, how advisors should think about sizing and liquidity management, and whether this moment marks a structural shift in how private investments are packaged and sold.

From private credit crowding to valuation pressures and de-globalization, this conversation goes beyond headlines to tackle the deeper issues shaping alternatives today and why a thorough due diligence process is more important than ever.

If you think alternatives are a free lunch — this episode may change your mind.

Speakers

Nimar Bangesh, Co-Founder and CEO, Obsiido

https://www.obsiido.com/

Chapters

01:23 Guest Background and the Genesis of Obsiido

04:03 The Evolution of Private Markets and Accessibility

06:52 Understanding Alternatives: Definitions and Structures

09:48 Liquidity and Governance in Alternatives

11:35 Changes in the Canadian Alternative Landscape

15:46 Why Alternatives Exist: Capital Market Construction

20:01 Benefits of Alternatives: Diversification and Return Enhancement

21:27 Common Misunderstandings About Alternatives

23:02 Resources to Learn More About Alternatives

26:29 Impact of Capital Abundance on Private Companies

27:08 Market Gating and Liquidity Challenges

30:25 The Role of Gating in Private Markets

38:14 Building a Portfolio: Strategies and Best Practices

41:52 Diversification and Manager Selection in Alternatives

43:52 The Future of Private Capital and Market Trends

45:26 Private Companies Staying Private Longer

46:13 Red Flags in Private Market Dealings

48:09 Final Remarks and Future Outlook

50:46 Book Recommendations and Closing Thoughts

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes.

For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, [email protected]

2025 looked like the kind of year that should have broken markets — geopolitical shocks, political dysfunction, and nonstop macro stress. Instead, risk assets powered ahead. That disconnect is exactly why investors should be paying attention.

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong's Lead Portfolio Manager, David Kletz, to explain why markets ignored the noise, why Canada quietly led global equity returns, and how fiscal spending has become the real backstop for risk. They dig into the uncomfortable reality of a K-shaped economy, where a handful of winners dominate while much of the economy struggles beneath the surface — a setup that is distorting valuations, concentrating risk, and leaving many portfolios exposed to a far narrower opportunity set than investors realize.

More importantly, the conversation looks forward. With 2026 underway, the risks are shifting — not disappearing. U.S. markets face tougher valuations, narrowing leadership, and growing dependency on policy support, while international markets are setting up for leadership investors may not be positioned for. Lastly, with gold catching all the headlines, commodities like copper are emerging as critical pressure points in a world rebuilding infrastructure and electrifying everything.

This episode is a warning shot for complacent portfolios and a roadmap for investors willing to adapt before stability becomes scarce.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Year-End Reflections

04:11 2025 Market Overview and Performance

11:05 Investment Strategies and Market Positioning

16:52 Regional Insights: Canada, US, and International Markets

21:55 Canada's Economic Outlook and Challenges

26:07 US Economic Dynamics and Central Bank Policies

30:46 K-Shaped Economy Outcomes: Divergence and Convergence

35:03 Commodities: Focus on Copper and Precious Metals

41:52 Currency Projections and Global Economic Trends

43:51 Closing Thoughts and Recommendations

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes.

For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, [email protected]

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, Rob Duncan is joined by Forstrong CEO and CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack a market that refuses to send a single, clear signal. Equity markets are strong, yet risks are building — a Split-Screen World where optimism and fragility coexist.

Tyler provides some insight into the annual Forstrong Super Trends report, Double Vision. From recession risk and cracks in credit to AI's gap between investment and earnings. The conversation then shifts to the bigger forces shaping 2026: the rise of fiscal dominance, the return of the real economy, and the broadening of market leadership beyond the United States.

They explore why international and emerging markets are gaining relevance, how AI's next phase is about productivity rather than hype, and why traditional safe havens no longer behave the way investors expect. The result is a clear-eyed discussion focused on where risk is being mispriced — and where opportunity may be quietly building for 2026.

A must-listen for investors navigating markets that look healthy on the surface, but far more complex underneath. Listen hear or access the full report below.

Forstrong Super Trends 2026: Double Vision

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Global Thinking Podcast

02:18 Understanding the Split Screen World

04:50 Risks in a K-Shaped Economy

08:15 The Shift from Monetary to Fiscal Policy

12:36 Global Rotation in Market Leadership

18:13 AI's Second Act: From Hype to Productivity

21:43 The Revenge of the Real Economy

25:41 Currency Cold War and Safe Haven Shakeup

30:17 Investment Strategies for 2026

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes.

For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, [email protected]