Global Thinking

When asked about the prognosis for markets, American financier J. P. Morgan once famously quipped, "they will fluctuate".

That statement is not meant to be dismissive of recent market volatility: the first half of 2024 has faced a long list of new realities from an AI fervour to contentious global elections. But, today more than ever, wealth accumulation demands a focus on fundamentals and looking beyond recent hype. Currently, there are historic opportunities to pivot into new investment themes as markets find a new footing and fresh macroeconomic trends emerge.

In this discussion, Rob Duncan, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager & Lead ESG Officer, sits down with Forstrong Portfolio Manager, Terry Shaunessy, to explore where investors might be succumbing to market exuberance and identifying strategies to navigate volatility while achieving their financial objectives.

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast

Forstrong Insights

Forstrong Dashboard: Gone Till November

5 Minute Macro: Is the Trump Trade On?

Ask Forstrong: AI Reality Check

Forstrong Quarterly Rebalance Q3 2024

Ask Forstrong: A Postcard from Mexico

5 Minute Macro: Election Waves and Market Moves

Forstrong Dashboard: Metals Rockin' Out

Ask Forstrong: Emerging Markets, The Bull is Back

Forstrong Dashboard: Feeling EM Boldened

Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth

Forstrong 5 Minute Macro: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Rebalance Summary: Q2 2024

Invest in Forstrong ETFs

Everyone is talking about Nvidia. Just 2 years ago the stock was worth a mere $400 billion. Now, depending on the time of day, it is worth somewhere around $3 trillion and was briefly the most valuable company in the world. Investors should not overcomplicate things here: Nvidia and the broader AI theme are in the midst of a speculative mania.

Of course, we have been here before. Investment stories, much like the current one, can be intoxicating and lure every last investor into the trade. During such times, diversification seems unnecessary. Who wants it when "one and done" portfolio decisions look so easy? Yet, investors invariably paying heavily for having taken on concentrated risk exposures. The late 1990s are a prime example.

At times like this, it is always useful to revisit the role of the portfolio manager: why do clients pay us to manage their wealth? It is not for flawless clairvoyance. Rather, we are paid to anticipate probable risks, prepare for opportunities and, importantly, not lose our proverbial minds when everyone else has lost theirs.

In the latest podcast, Rob Duncan, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager & Lead ESG Officer, sits down with Tyler Mordy, CEO & CIO of Forstrong, to discuss the recent volatility in Nvidia and implications for the broader market.

Global Thinking Podcast

Forstrong Insights

Forstrong Quarterly Rebalance Q3 2024

Ask Forstrong: A Postcard from Mexico

5 Minute Macro: Election Waves and Market Moves

Forstrong Dashboard: Metals Rockin' Out

Ask Forstrong: Emerging Markets, The Bull is Back

Forstrong Dashboard: Feeling EM Boldened

Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth

Forstrong 5 Minute Macro: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Rebalance Summary: Q2 2024

Invest in Forstrong ETFs

Canadian ETF inflows continued at a brisk pace in May, bringing the year-to-date number to more than $24 billion (handily beating their mutual fund counterparts). Total assets now stand at more than $432 billion with 1407 ETFs to choose from. With all this selection, how do investors know which ETF to buy?

To help answer these questions Rob Duncan, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager & Lead ESG Officer at Forstrong, sits down with Patrick McEntyre, Managing Director and Co-Head of Institutional Sales of ETFs at National Bank Financial Group, to discuss:

• Key trends within the ETF industry
• Where investors are allocating funds
• How changes in ETF flows align with Forstrong's investment outlook and positioning

In addition, Patrick walks through how National Bank provides liquidity on large trades, when ETFs can be more efficient than stocks and bonds, and why the rush to International and Emerging Market equities might be at a tipping point.

Global Thinking Podcast

Forstrong Insights

Forstrong Dashboard: Metals Rockin' Out

Ask Forstrong: Emerging Markets, The Bull is Back

Forstrong Dashboard: Feeling EM Boldened

Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth

Forstrong 5 Minute Macro: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Rebalance Summary: Q2 2024

Invest in Forstrong ETFs

Looking back on the month of April, it was a tough time for many investors. Broadly, many stock market sectors broke their winning streak. Bonds didn't fare any better as continued strong global economic data pressured long-term yields higher.

As the macro regime continues to unfold, Forstrong's investment team continues to believe the world is transitioning toward an inflationary boom. Increased volatility is a key tenet of this shifting economic landscape. But the theme of broadening performance (away from the handful of US mega-cap stocks which carried markets last year) is alive and well. In April, commodity-sensitive exposures and emerging markets equities staged impressive rallies.

In this episode, Rob sits down with Forstrong Lead PM, David Kletz, to unpack these latest development. They also dive into why an improving outlook in emerging markets could lead to outsized returns this year.

Global Thinking Podcast

Forstrong Insights

Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth

Forstrong 5 Minute Macro: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Rebalance Summary: Q2 2024

Invest in Forstrong ETFs

US equities have taken center stage over the last few years and are touching all-time highs as consumers continue to show strength with healthy balance sheets and less sensitivity to higher interest rates. But is all this good news already priced in?

What may be surprising is that returns are no longer being powered primarily by the "Magnificent 7". Instead, forgotten and unloved sectors are now witnessing a steady bid.

In this episode Rob sits with BMO's Chief Investment Officer, Sadiq Adatia, to talk about their recent market outlook and why they believe a broadening market rally is in the cards for 2024. While high quality and financials in the US are in focus, gold and commodity-oriented equities could see a continuation of strength.

Global Thinking Podcast

Forstrong Insights

Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth

Forstrong 5 Minute Macro: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Rebalance Summary: Q2 2024

Invest in Forstrong ETFs

Interest Rate Obsession: Are Markets Missing the Bigger Picture?

Markets have found a new obsession to dote upon: timing central bank rate cutes. Everywhere you look, interest rate expectations continue to dominate headlines and market narratives. Imminent recession fears have been replaced with questions on the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts, but interest rates are only part of the story. The larger trend is the impressive resilience not only of the US economy but also in other parts of the world.

After pricing in up to 6 rate cuts to start the year investor expectations have quickly scaled back to 3. One could even wonder, are we actually in the "no landing" economy?

In this episode Rob sits down with Forstrong Lead PM, David Kletz, to talk about expectations on rate cuts and the possibility of a "Bull Steepening" on the yield curve. Additionally, they walk through Forstrong's recent strategy changes and why they see greater opportunity in US mid-caps, Emerging Markets debt and Swedish equities.

For more information on our podcasts please visit: https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth

Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Global Insights

In this episode Rob sits down with Michael Greenberg, Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, to ask questions about their market outlook and where they see opportunity in the year ahead. Throughout the podcast Mike shares his perspectives on inflation, expectations for interest rate cuts, concentration in US equity's "AI enablers" and Bitcoin's impact on portfolio returns. While Mike remains positive on the US avoiding a recession and continued equity performance, he makes an interesting case for opportunities within Emerging Markets. Tune in to hear more.

For more information on our podcasts please visit: https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Bitcoin ETFs: Crypto Moves Further Into The Mainstream

Forstrong Global Insights

Bio: Michael Greenberg is a senior vice president and portfolio manager for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions and is a member of the Investment Strategy & Research Committee.

Mike specializes in fixed income strategy and has co-portfolio management responsibilities for all Canada-based managed programs, including Franklin Quotential, Franklin LifeSmart Sustainable and Franklin ETF Portfolios. He also manages institutional mandates in North America. Mike holds a bachelor of commerce with honors in marketing and international management from the University of Ottawa. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designations.

One year ago, market forecasters were in absolute agreement. A Bloomberg consensus survey showed that 100% of the respondents predicted a global recession in 2023. Rising interest rates would surely create an inevitable "hard landing". When such agreement exists in the investment world one must ask the obvious question, "What don't we already know?".

Since then, fears over hard landings have vanished as the powerful surge in US-led growth has thinned out the recession camp. But less discussed is that economic activity outside America has also firmed, led by a liftoff in global trade.

Does this mean that the bull market in US stocks will also start broadening out? We think so. In fact, investor optimism has created bull markets from New York to Tokyo. Japan, France, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Taiwan, Netherlands, Denmark, Italy, Brazil, and India are in or near bull market territory touching highs last seen in the Post Covid rally.

So, what don't we already know?

As the Magnificent 7 continue to grab headlines and push prices and valuations to historical highs, opportunities for a follow through trade are all around us. In this episode Rob and Tyler discuss why a broadening rally is so important and how best to position portfolios to profit from this emerging macro trend.

On this episode Rob sits down with our good friend Rodrigo Gordillo from Resolve Asset Management. Rodrigo has a fascinating background and shares how hyperinflation in 1980s Peru shaped his life and investment philosophy. He also discusses why emerging markets have been more proactive in combating inflation over the last few years, and why inflation volatility will be higher this decade than the last.

For more information on our podcasts please visit: https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Bitcoin ETFs: Crypto Moves Further Into The Mainstream

Forstrong Global Insights

Welcome back to all our listeners. This is now Season 4 of the Forstrong Global Thinking podcast and there is no shortage of topics to dive into. In this episode Rob sits down with Tyler Mordy, CEO and CIO, to discuss which macro trends are shaping the investment landscape.

Looking back, last year was one of heightened risk aversion: some $1.3 trillion dollars ran into global money market funds. Meanwhile, our investment team has a thesis that may stretch minds: we are entering a new risk-taking cycle based on an entirely different set of macroeconomic conditions and investment leadership. As 2024 progresses, Forstrong forecasts recession fears will again recede, and aggressive rate cut expectations will be unwound.

Tune-in to hear why shifts away from cash will lead to a big rotation into the cheap, cyclically sensitive and inflation hedging assets.

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Forstrong Super Trends - Macronova

Ask Forstrong - Inflation: Mission Accomplished