Global Thinking

The majority of active managers underperform their benchmarks - but why?

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast Rob sits down with Dr. Joseph Nelesen, Head of Specialists, Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, to unpack the 2024 SPIVA Report—the definitive study comparing active fund managers to their benchmarks.

The discussion explores how most active managers have underperformed their benchmark, the critical role of survivorship bias, and the impact of fees and market conditions on long-term performance. Joe shares eye-opening statistics including how almost half of all funds over a 10 year period cease to exist and the fact that zero managers maintain their top quartile ranking over a five-year period.

Rob and Joe also dive into ETF investing, analyzing the trends shaping active management today and what investors should consider when building portfolios. Whether you're an investment professional or an individual investor, this conversation delivers valuable insights into the ongoing debate between active versus index strategies and how market efficiency may be impacting your investment decisions.

https://www.indexologyblog.com/2025/01/08/shifting-tides-concentration-dispersion-and-the-sp-500-risk-landscape/

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Global Thinking Podcast

01:07 Meet Dr. Joseph Nelesen

05:53 Understanding the SPIVA Report

13:15 Key Findings from the 2024 Report Card

19:04 The Challenge of Persistence in Active Management

25:54 Trends in Active Management and ETF Usage

27:57 Exploring Fixed Income Strategies

30:41 The Dynamics of Equal Weighting in S&P 500

31:55 Active vs. Passive Investing: A Deep Dive

35:06 The Role of Fees in Investment Performance

38:27 Understanding Long-Term Underperformance Trends

39:36 Due Diligence in Selecting Active Managers

41:52 The Evolution of Market Efficiency

44:22 Personal Insights and Recommendations

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Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

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Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

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In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong's CEO & CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack the evolving market landscape and the unmistakable "vibe shift" happening in global markets. The once-unstoppable dominance of U.S. equities and the MAG 7 is showing signs of fatigue while broader global markets are stepping into the spotlight. Europe is showing signs of economic resurgence, emerging markets are gaining traction, and investors are finally remembering there are stocks outside of the S&P 500.

They also break down the latest economic headlines, including the impact of Trump 2.0 policies, which were supposed to fuel growth but seem to be running in the opposite direction faster than Zelensky leaving the White House. Inflation, interest rates, and shifting investment narratives all come into play, along with a fresh take on the Canadian economy's potential.

Is this the beginning of a new global investment era? Tune in for insights and a look at where smart money might be heading next.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Global Investing 01:08 Market Dynamics and the Trump Effect 07:38 The Shift from MAG-7 to Broader Markets 14:03 Europe's Economic Resurgence 21:37 Emerging Markets: A Turning Point 26:15 Interest Rates and Inflation Outlook 28:06 Inflation: The Central Concern 35:14 The Canadian Dollar and Global Trade 39:13 Exploring Wealth Beyond Finances 43:28 Closing Thoughts and Recommendations

The 5 Types of Wealth - https://www.the5typesofwealth.com/

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

In this episode of the Global Thinking podcast Rob sits down with Forstrong's Lead Portfolio Manager, David Kletz, to tackle two of the biggest forces shaping markets today: trade policy and technology.

To start, they dive into the latest tariff turmoil, where Trump's abrupt policy flip-flop left markets scrambling. What does this unpredictability mean for global trade and investor confidence? David breaks down the broader economic uncertainty and how investors can position themselves amid shifting geopolitical tensions.

To round it off the conversation turns to the tech sector, where DeepSeek rapid advancements sparked a major selloff in U.S. tech stocks raising questions about whether new leadership in artificial intelligence is emerging. Rob and David explore what this means for investors, sector rotations, and the future of innovation-driven market leadership.

Chapters

01:06 Market Reactions to AI Developments

03:11 Impact of Tariffs on Investment Strategies

06:52 Sector Analysis and Portfolio Protection

10:42 Opportunities in Global Markets

13:24 AI Developments and Market Implications

18:36 Interest Rates and Currency Volatility

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

In this episode of the Global Thinking podcast, host Rob Duncan sits down with Adam Payne, President and Chief Compliance Officer of Kinsted Wealth, for a deep dive into the evolving world of alternative investments. With market uncertainty and traditional asset classes facing headwinds, alternatives have taken center stage—but how can investors truly access them? Rob and Adam explore the critical role of manager selection, due diligence, and industry trends shaping the space. From challenges in accessibility to Kinsted's vision for democratizing alternatives, this episode offers valuable insights for investors looking to expand their portfolios beyond the conventional.

As alternative investments gain traction, understanding what truly defines them—and how they fit into a diversified portfolio—has never been more important. Adam shares why Kinsted Wealth has embraced this shift, emphasizing the need for strong manager selection and the hurdles of liquidity and accessibility that individual investors face. With growing interest in alternatives, education remains key for both investors and advisors looking to navigate this complex yet promising space.

Chapters:

01:07 Exploring Alternative Investments

05:43 Defining Alternative Investments

08:06 The Role of Alternatives in Portfolios

10:59 Manager Selection and Due Diligence

16:34 Access to Alternative Investments

20:24 Industry Trends in Alternatives

26:43 Lessons Learned and Challenges in Alternatives

31:34 Future Developments at Kinsted Wealth

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

In this episode Rob joins Forstrong CEO and Chief Investment Officer, Tyler Mordy, to unpack the defining moments of 2024 and the forces shaping 2025. The past year was further evidence we are not in a traditional economic cycle. In the face of elevated volatility, geopolitical tensions, and a charged political landscape markets powered higher. Yet, amidst the chaos, two themes stood tall: the commanding influence of tech giants and the unexpected resilience of global economic growth.

Fast forward to 2025, and the drama continues—think Netflix-worthy twists. Trump 2.0 is shaking up the global order, reviving tariffs and hinting at economic annexation with Canada in the crosshairs. Meanwhile, Canada faces a leadership vacuum, a declared "productivity emergency", and interest rate cuts that seem to be losing their punch. South of the border, U.S. equity valuations are flirting with new records as rate cuts may be postponed and government spending finally tightens. Globally, the stakes are just as high. China's deflationary concerns are sending shockwaves through markets, while Europe grapples with pivotal elections that could redefine its economic trajectory.

This episode delivers sharp insights into these unfolding narratives, offering investors a lens to navigate a year where resilience and rivalry go hand in hand.

Chapters

00:00 2024 Review: A Year of Volatility

15:05 2025 Outlook: Key Themes and Trends

17:26 Political Landscape: Elections and Economic Policies

22:07 Trump 2.0: Implications for Canada and Global Trade

28:06 Global Economic Dynamics and the Role of the U.S.

30:28 Canada's Economic Challenges and Opportunities

32:15 The Impact of Interest Rates on Economic Growth

36:00 China's Economic Policy and Global Implications

42:04 Reflections: Documentaries and Personal Insights

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, host Rob Duncan welcomes Keith Dicker, Founder and Chief Investment Officer at IceCap Asset Management, for an in-depth exploration of the global financial landscape. Keith shares captivating insights from his unique career path, the art of global investing, the power of networking, and why risk management remains the cornerstone of successful strategies.

Rob and Keith unpack the implications of climbing long-term interest rates, the mounting pressures of government debt and why this could lead to greater opportunities in the future. Keith dives into the intricate dance of inflation and energy markets, offering a sharp perspective on how central bank policies are shaping investment challenges and why you need to keep an eye on currency markets.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Global Investing Philosophy

01:34 Keith Dicker's Journey in Investment Management

05:42 Market Outlook: Opportunities and Risks

06:10 US Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators

10:04 Long-Term Interest Rates and Economic Growth

12:31 Government Debt and Fiscal Challenges

15:52 Global Savings and Investment Strategies

18:46 Currency Markets and Risk Management

22:31 US Economic Resilience and Investment Opportunities

31:41 Inflation Trends and Market Implications

32:09 Inflation Trends and Predictions

35:31 Energy Market Dynamics

37:23 Investment Strategies for Canadians

40:50 Market Opportunities and Concerns

44:04 Central Bank Policies and Currency Dynamics

50:50 Final Thoughts and Recommendations

2024 is proving to be another year full of surprises. Investors have been bracing for recession as a waterfall of misleading signals have dominated headlines. While many braced for a looming recession, markets defied expectations with strong returns—leaving many sidelined in cash or GICs, missing out on the upside.

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, Rob sits down with Forstrong's CEO and CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack the themes from Tyler's latest article, 5 Questions Keeping Investors Up at Night. Together, they tackle the big questions shaping today's investment landscape: Where are we in the economic cycle? Are geopolitical shocks here to stay? What impact could the U.S. election bring? Is China's economic stimulus a real game-changer? And, finally, what does the future hold for the powerhouse MAG-7 tech stocks? Join us for a deep dive into these pressing topics and find out why keeping perspective—and staying invested—matters now more than ever.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction

01:07 The Five Questions

02:36 Where are we in the Economic Cycle?

10:40 Are Geopolitical Shocks Becoming More Frequent?

17:06 What are the Implications of US Elections?

24:54 Are China's Economic Stimulus a Game Changer?

30:14 What is the Future of the MAG-7 Tech Stocks?

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Financial technology, or Fintech, in Canada has traditionally trailed behind the U.S. by nearly a decade. Until recently, even basic processes like virtual onboarding were rare in Canada, where advisors and clients often dealt with stacks of paper for signatures and mailed-off documents. But a global pandemic has accelerated change, bringing digital solutions and smartphone-driven client experiences to the forefront.

In this episode of Global Thinking, Rob sits down with Oliver Yoon, Head of Harness Investment Management, to explore the rapidly evolving Canadian Fintech landscape. Together, they discuss Oliver's extensive experience in finance, Harness's mission to empower advisors with independent investment solutions, and how technology is transforming client interactions. They also dive into the role of AI in financial services and the exciting future for advisors embracing innovation.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction

01:07 Oliver Career in Finance

06:24 Understanding Harness and Its Role

09:56 The Importance of Independence in Canada

13:02 A Fintech Solution for Advisors

18:29 AI's Role in Financial Services

20:29 Future Opportunities for Harness

22:24 Competition and Unique Offerings

24:33 Personal Insights and Closing Remarks

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Over the past year, China has grappled with escalating challenges—from a real estate meltdown to tech crackdowns and slowing growth—leading many investors to deem the country "un-investable." However, recent policy moves from Beijing, including significant interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, may point to a major inflection point ahead.

In this episode, Rob Duncan speaks with Forstrong's Research Analyst, Shibo Gu, on the ground in Northern China. Together, they unpack the latest stimulus measures and their potential impact on investors eyeing opportunities in the world's second-largest economy. Is this renewed optimism justified, or should caution still prevail?

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to China's Economic Landscape 03:28 Stimulus Measures and Their Implications 08:42 Investment Opportunities in the Wake of Stimulus 12:04 Market Outlook and Investor Sentiment 18:09 On-the-Ground Insights from China

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Forstrong Insights

Previous posts on visiting China.

Ask Forstrong: Postcard from China

Global Thinking: Postcard from China, Part 2

Investors have been pouring into Canadian ETFs at an unprecedented rate in 2024. While cash and US equity ETFs have dominated flows this year, recent trends suggest a shift is underway. Weaker economic data and volatility in Japan have investors worried, while international markets present compelling opportunities.

In the latest Global Thinking episode, Rob sits down with Daniel Straus, Director of ETF Research at National Bank, to discuss recent ETF trends and investment flows. Together, they explore why investors should focus on global opportunities and how to navigate the period ahead.

Show Notes:

00:00 - Exploring ETF Flows and Market Trends

05:08 - The Growth of the ETF Market

08:25 - Fixed Income Flows and the Demand for Cash

12:41 - The Appeal of International and Emerging Market ETFs

15:47 - The Unwinding of the Carry Trade in Japan

19:59 - Interest Rate Policy and Rate Movements

22:55 - Canadian Equity ETF Inflows and Home Bias

23:25 - Investing in Canada's Energy Markets

25:16 - Canadian Banks: A Demand Spot

28:06 - The Growth of Active ETFs in Canada

30:25 - Covered Call ETFs: Present Income vs. Future Upside

37:46 - Exploring Consciousness and Free Will