The Caerphilly by-election has shaken Welsh politics to its core. In this Senedd Sources flash reaction episode, Calum Macdonald, Jo Kiernan and Craig Lawton unpack a dramatic night for Welsh democracy.

👉 Plaid Cymru has claimed victory with 47% of the vote — the party’s first win in Caerphilly for 100 years — while Labour crashed to third, and Reform UK surged into second with 36%. What does this mean for Keir Starmer’s Labour, for Nigel Farage’s Reform movement, and for Welsh politics ahead of the 2026 Senedd election?

In this episode:

• Why turnout hit a record 50% — and what it tells us about voter anger
• How tactical voting shaped the result
• Why Reform’s rise could reshape the Senedd in 2026
• Whether Plaid Cymru can hold together its new coalition of voters
• What Labour must do to recover before May 2026

📺 Subscribe to Senedd Sources on YouTube for sharp, insider analysis of Welsh politics — from the Caerphilly by-election to the road to 2026.

🎧 Also listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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In this episode of Senedd Sources, Ollie Cole, Jo Kiernan and Craig Lawton are joined by Cathy Owens (Cavendish Consulting), who shares exclusive new YouGov polling on Welsh attitudes toward energy, renewables, and climate change.

They explore:

• Why 70% of Welsh voters back onshore renewables like wind and solar
• The disconnect between voters and political parties on climate policy
• How Plaid Cymru, Labour, and the Conservatives are positioning themselves ahead of the 2026 Senedd elections
• Whether Wales risks losing investment because of slow grid upgrades
• The political dangers of talking about net zero vs. talking about jobs and growth

Expect sharp insights on:

• How cost-of-living pressures are changing views on climate action
• The coming clash over pylons, undergrounding, and rural protest movements
• Why Plaid Cymru faces a “horseshoe problem” inside its own base
• What the data says about nuclear power and offshore vs onshore renewables

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It’s crunch time in Caerphilly. New polling puts Reform UK ahead of Plaid Cymru — and Welsh Labour facing a nightmare scenario. On this week’s Senedd Sources Podcast, Ollie Cole, Jo Kiernan, and Craig Lawton break down what’s really happening on the ground, the fallout from Plaid Cymru’s party conference, and the latest twists in the Senedd budget negotiations.

We cover:

• 📊 The latest Caerphilly by-election poll — Reform UK leads Plaid Cymru 42–38
• ⚡ The impact of Nigel Farage’s visit and questions over Russian links
• 🏛️ Labour’s struggles in Welsh Government and locally in Caerphilly
• 🌱 Plaid Cymru’s childcare policy, energy protests, and independence debate
• 💷 Budget brinkmanship in Cardiff Bay — and could Welsh Conservatives cut a deal?
• 🎙️ Plus: The disastrous TV hustings that turned voters off

👉 Subscribe for more in-depth analysis of Welsh politics, from those who’ve worked inside the Senedd and advised First Ministers.

📱 WhatsApp your questions and voice notes to 0333 404 6507 (start your message with Senedd).

📩 Email: [email protected]

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As Plaid Cymru ride high in the polls and the Conservatives face existential questions, Wales heads for a seismic election year.

In this episode of Senedd Sources, Ollie Cole, Jo Kiernan, and Craig Lawton unpack:

• What Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Conference speech really means for Wales
• Why Plaid Cymru’s conference could define the next Senedd election
• The growing Tory–Reform dilemma — and whether a pact could destroy the Welsh Conservatives
• New powers to sack your MS and what that means for accountability in Welsh politics

With insider insight from former government advisers and political campaigners, this is the go-to breakdown of Welsh conference season.

📱 Get in touch: WhatsApp 0333 404 6507 (start your message with “Senedd”)

📧 [email protected]

🎧 Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts — or watch full episodes right here on YouTube.

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In this episode of the Senedd Sources Podcast, Ollie Cole plus Jo Kiernan (former adviser to First Ministers Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones, before that a journalist for ITV Wales and now senior consultant with Cavendish Consulting) and Craig Lawton (was a politician and adviser for the Welsh Conservatives, now working at Grasshopper Communications) to break down the key political battles shaping Wales.

We unpack the fallout from the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool, asking what it means for Keir Starmer, Eluned Morgan, and the relationship between Westminster and the Senedd.

We also dive into the high-stakes Caerphilly by-election, where immigration, cost of living, and the rise of Reform UK in Wales could change the political map. Will Plaid Cymru or Labour hold their ground? And what happens if Labour loses — could the Senedd budget even collapse?

🔑 Topics covered:

• Labour’s strategy in Wales after Starmer’s conference speech
• Eluned Morgan’s leadership style and clashes with Westminster
• Plaid Cymru vs Labour: language and strategy in the run-up to May
• The growing influence of Reform UK in Welsh politics
• The Caerphilly by-election as a test for 2026
• Could Wales face a Senedd budget crisis?

📌 Senedd Sources takes you inside Welsh politics — from Cardiff Bay to Westminster. Subscribe for weekly analysis, interviews, and behind-the-scenes insight.

👉 Have a question or comment? Text us on 0333 404 6507 (start with "Senedd") or email [email protected]

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Wales is heading for one of its most consequential Senedd elections yet — and the future of Welsh Labour dominance is at stake.

In this episode of Senedd Sources, Ollie Cole is joined by Jo Kiernan (former adviser to First Ministers Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones, now at Cavendish Consulting) and Craig Lawton (ex-Welsh Conservative adviser, now Head of Public Affairs at Grasshopper Comms) to break down the shifting political landscape:

• Can Welsh Labour cling on amid voter anger and the cost-of-living crisis?
• Why is Reform UK surging in the polls — and can they really turn online buzz into votes?
• How is Plaid Cymru positioning itself as a credible alternative, ruling out an independence referendum in the first term?
• What do the Welsh Conservatives stand for when the party remains divided on devolution?
• Does Wales really need more politicians with Senedd expansion to 96 members on the way?

From the impact of Keir Starmer’s leadership on Welsh politics, to Nigel Farage’s shadow over the campaign, to Plaid Cymru’s strategy to look like a government-in-waiting — we unpack everything you need to know before the Senedd election.

🎧 Subscribe to Senedd Sources for insider analysis of Welsh politics, straight from the people who’ve been in the room when big decisions were made.

Click seneddsources.com for more information.

In association with Electrify Britain.

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Senedd Sources is your brand new guide to the people, policies and power struggles shaping Wales as the nation heads towards a dramatic 2026 election. Hosted by journalist Ollie Cole, former Welsh Labour adviser Jo Kiernan, and ex-Welsh Conservative adviser Craig Lawton, the podcast takes you inside the corridors of the Senedd like never before.

With insiders’ insight, sharp debate and behind-the-scenes stories, Senedd Sources lifts the lid on Welsh politics — from the strategies of party leaders to the issues that will define the next election. Whether you’re a political obsessive or just want to understand what’s really going on in Cardiff Bay, this is the podcast you need to follow the twists and turns of the campaign ahead.

Visit seneddsources.com

In association with Electrify Britain.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.