SETA DC

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv during the highest-level visit by U.S. officials to Ukraine since the start of the war. The priority of the US and Western countries in the current phase of the invasion has turned to quickly arming Ukraine against Russia in addition to sanctions. As the West seeks to bolster Ukraine’s military capacity to fight against Russia, Moscow continues to shell Ukrainian cities, use energy as a lever against Europeans, and promises heavy consequences against supporters of Ukraine. Concerns about the spread of the war to neighboring states and a nuclear confrontation are also increasing, as the West struggles to deter Russia.

Will the Western efforts to support Ukraine’s ability to fight lead the country to victory? How can a potential confrontation between Russia and NATO be avoided? How might the US and NATO allies modify their current policy as the conflict deepens?

The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to host a panel of distinguished experts to analyze the implications of the war in Ukraine.

Speakers

Steven Pifer, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

Kathryn Stoner, Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

Moderator

Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington, DC

The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a strong and a somewhat surprisingly unified NATO response. The US policy has focused on supporting Ukraine through economic and military aid foreclosing any direct confrontation with Russia. Despite different interests and diplomatic relations of member countries within NATO, the alliance has been able to sustain its cohesion although this may prove more challenging as the conflict prolongs. As a critical NATO member in the Black Sea and a country who has provided strong support to Ukraine while facilitating high-level diplomacy to resolve the crisis, Turkey’s policy has implications for the alliance as well. As Russia refocuses its military efforts on the east and south, a protracted conflict appears more likely, and NATO’s response will be ever more critical for the course of the war.

How can the alliance sustain its current unity? What are some of the next steps that can be taken to support Ukraine? What can the alliance do in the wake of increasing attacks on civilians? How might the US modify its policy as the conflict deepens? What are some of the implications for the US-Turkey relationship?

The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to host a panel of distinguished experts to analyze the implications of the war in Ukraine.

John Herbst, Senior Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council; Former US Ambassador to Ukraine

Mark N. Katz, Professor, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University

Yevgeniya Gaber, Senior Fellow, Centre in Modern Turkish Studies at Carleton University

Kilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington, DC

The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine has already triggered fears for a new world war with far-reaching geopolitical implications. The war is likely to define the European security structure in the years to come. While NATO and European allies have been united in opposition to the invasion and exacting serious costs on Russia, they have yet to deter Russian leader Putin. Individual NATO allies such as Turkey have shown strong support to Ukraine and conducted high-level diplomacy to resolve the crisis. So far, Putin appears dead set on achieving his goals regardless of the economic and military costs not to mention unprecedented political isolation. The conflict also promises to shape the relations between great powers and the global balance of power between the U.S., Russia, and China.

What are the regional and global implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? How can Turkey’s policy contribute to a potential diplomatic solution? In what ways does NATO have to rethink its posture to reassure allies and support Ukraine at the same time?

The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to host a panel of distinguished experts to analyze the implications of the war in Ukraine.

Luke Coffey, Director, Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, The Heritage Foundation

Amanda Paul, Senior Policy Analyst, European Policy Center

Kilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington, DC

Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington, DC

During his visit to Kyiv last week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reiterated Turkey’s support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity as he repeated his offer to mediate between Russia and Ukraine to resolve the current crisis. Having inked a series of agreements aimed at deepening economic ties and defense cooperation between Turkey and Ukraine, President Erdogan highlighted the importance of his upcoming meeting with Putin by stressing the multifaceted nature of Turkish-Russian relations. Turkey has also vocally opposed the Russian annexation of Crimea since 2014 and continues to increase its defense cooperation with Ukraine, displeasing Russia. As an essential NATO member, Turkey pledged to fulfill its commitments to the alliance while criticizing Western countries for being unable to contribute to the resolution of the Ukraine-Russia tensions.

What are the main drivers of Turkey’s approach to the Ukraine crisis? Can Turkish mediation contribute to a diplomatic solution? What can we expect from the upcoming Erdogan-Putin meeting? What are the implications of a potential conflict for Turkey and the region?

The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to host a distinguished panel of experts to discuss Turkey’s policy on the Ukraine crisis.

Jeffrey Mankoff, Distinguished Research Fellow, Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University

Yevgeniya Gaber, Senior Fellow, Centre in Modern Turkish Studies at Carleton University

Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

Kilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

The ongoing Russian military buildup along the Ukrainian border, military exercises in Belarus, US military support to Ukraine and NATO’s asset deployments to Eastern Europe all point to increased likelihood of war in Europe. Following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the seemingly impending invasion of further Ukrainian territory by Russia has serious implications for regional security. Russian President Vladimir Putin has attempted to receive iron-clad guarantees from NATO not to admit any new members along what Russia considers its “sphere of influence.” As NATO has rejected this notion and responded with the threat of a heavy cost in case of invasion, the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough has dramatically weakened. What are the possible implications of the Ukraine crisis for regional security and the future of the international system? What are Putin’s main goals? What are some of the deterrence tools at the West’s disposal? What does this crisis mean for the Biden administration’s promise of American global leadership?

The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss the Ukraine crisis.

Charles Kupchan, Senior Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations and Professor of International Relations at Georgetown University

Steven Pifer, Nonresident Senior Fellow in Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative at The Brookings Institution

Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington, DC

Kilic Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington, DC

Last year, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought for six weeks over Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding regions in a conflict that took more than 6,500 lives. On November 9, 2020, the two sides signed an agreement brokered by Russia to end the fighting and work towards a comprehensive solution. The 2nd Karabakh War ended a decades-old frozen conflict by reversing the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territory. Since then, both have signaled willingness to improve relations while a new geopolitical reality has emerged. As its influence has grown, Turkey has reiterated its support for Azerbaijan and pushed for normalization of diplomatic relations in the region. Political turmoil in Armenia following the war, Russian recognition of the new conditions through a trilateral working group, and the recent flareup along the Azerbaijani-Iranian border due to Tehran’s discomfort with Baku’s close relationship with Israel have been some of the notable developments in the region.

Since the foundation of the AK Party on August 14, 2001, Turkish-American relations have gone through major regional and global challenges. The relationship has ebbed and flowed over the past two decades of AK Party governments under the leadership of President Erdoğan and different administrations in Washington. The Middle East has undergone major geopolitical transformations that the US and Turkey have sought to manage in the last twenty years in addition to numerous bilateral issues. The US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran nuclear issue, ongoing Syrian civil war are just a few of the regional challenges that both strained the relationship and created opportunities for cooperation. In what ways has the AK Party put its stamp on Turkish foreign policy in general and the US-Turkey relationship in particular? What are the current challenges and opportunities before a more robust partnership can contribute to peace and stability in the region? How can the US and Turkey overcome their bilateral difficulties and work together as NATO allies to tackle regional and global challenges?

The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to host a distinguished panel of experts to discuss Turkish-American relations under the tenure of the AK Party.

Speakers

Çağrı Erhan, Professor of International Relations Altınbaş Üniversitesi, Member of Security and Foreign Policies Council of Turkish Presidency

Akif Kireçci, Dean of the Faculty of Political Sciences at Ankara Social Sciences University, Member of Security and Foreign Policies Council of Turkish Presidency

Moderator

Kadir Ustun, Executive Director at The SETA Foundation at Washington DC

Since the failed coup attempt on July 15th, 2016, Turkey’s foreign policy has changed dramatically. Turkey intervened militarily in multiple countries such as Syria and Libya to protect its security and geopolitical interests. Having proven to be a stabilizing actor in these countries and beyond, Turkey has also made major investments in its national defense. Turkey’s acquisition of air defense systems from Russia continues to be an issue in its relations with its Western allies in addition to disagreements over the Eastern Mediterranean and refugee issues. As a regional player with deep institutional ties with the West, how has the Turkish foreign policy evolved since the 2016 coup attempt? How has the Turkish public received these changes? What will the next few years hold for Turkey’s regional posture and its relations with the West?

The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to host a distinguished panel of experts to discuss the course and trajectory of Turkish foreign policy since the July 15th coup attempt.

Speakers

Michael Reynolds¸ Director of Princeton University’s Program in Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies, and Associate Professor in Princeton’s Department of Near Eastern Studies

Talip Küçükcan, Professor of Sociology at the Marmara University

Moderator

Kadir Üstün, Executive Director at the SETA Foundation at Washington, D.C.

U.S.-Turkey relations have gone through a rocky period over the past few years and there continue to be areas of disagreement between the two NATO allies. Issues such as Ankara’s purchase of the S-400 air defense systems and Washington’s Syria policy remain critical points of tension. At the same time, the two allies cooperate on a number of strategic matters within the NATO framework. The US-Turkish relationship remains a multifaceted and a complex one going back decades, with the changing strategic environment in the region having the potential to create new opportunities for enhanced cooperation. Given the current state of the relationship, how can President Erdogan and President Biden work to improve ties and contribute to overall strength of NATO? What are some of the areas of disagreement as well as potential cooperation that should be brought to the table? What are some of the strategic and security challenges NATO faces today that an improved U.S.-Turkey relationship can help confront?

Speakers

Luke Coffey, Director, Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation

Muhittin Ataman, Director, Foreign Policy Program, The SETA Foundation

Moderator

Kilic B. Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington, DC

The SETA Foundation at Washington DC is pleased to host a book talk with Author Kathryn Stoner on “Russia Resurrected: Its Power and Purpose in a New Global Order.”