In this podcast episode, Gareth delves into the concept of near-misses in diving, exploring the two categories: those that "could happen" and those that "almost happened." The distinction lies in background risks versus perceived risks influenced by cognitive biases. The episode draws parallels with real-world examples, such as the normalization of risks in the space shuttle Columbia tragedy. Three dive scenarios are presented, examining the outcomes and whether the participants were lucky or skilled. The discussion emphasizes the impact of successful near-misses on risk perception, leading to potential complacency. The episode concludes with insights into mitigating these issues, promoting counterfactual thinking, and stressing the importance of effective debriefs to enhance learning from near-misses. The audience is encouraged to reflect on successful outcomes and consider whether they were lucky or good in order to improve diving practices.

Original blog:

https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/were-you-lucky-or-were-you-good-2

Links:

Normalisation of Deviance blog: https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/normalisation-of-deviance-not-about-rule-breaking

Debrief model: https://www.thehumandiver.com/debrief

How Near-Misses Influence Decision Making Under Risk: A Missed Opportunity for Learning. Dillon & Tinsley, 2008: https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0869

Tags:

 English, Decision Making, Gareth Lock, Normalisation of Deviance, Risk Management