Eric and Eliot are on their own. They talk about Ukraine, the China Balloon episode, and developments in Turkey and whether or not that relationship is a harbinger of a new day in U.S multilateralism. They ask if the U.S. find new mechanisms like AUKUS to supplement its bilateral relationships in the Indo-Pacific and will it resort to "mini-lateralism" in Europe with countries in the East who are becoming more influential in NATO? They conclude with talking about the ongoing protests in Iran.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at [email protected].

NATO’s Electoral Message for Erdogan by John Bolton (https://www.wsj.com/articles/natos-electoral-message-for-erdogan-elections-president-membership-russia-middle-east-weapons-expulsion-11673903724)

Turkey’s Turning Point by Henri Barkey (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/turkey/turkeys-turning-point-erdogan)

Iran’s Protesters Want Regime Change by Eric and Ray Takeyh (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/iran-protesters-want-regime-change)

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Eliot and Eric host Robert W. Kagan, the Stephen and Barbara Friedman Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and author of Of Paradise and Power, The Return of History, The World America Made, and The Jungle Grows Back to discuss his new book The Ghost at the Feast: America and the Collapse of World Order, 1900-1941. They discuss the irresponsibility of American policy making after World War I, whether or not a more robust U.S. commitment to European security could have produced the kind of security order that the U.S. helped create after 1945, the ambivalence of American thinking about the necessity of global order and a reluctance to play a leading role in securing it, and the role of moral and ideological impulses in U.S. policy making. They also assess Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt as statesmen and the state of the study of diplomatic history in the academy today.

Dangerous Nation by Robert Kagan (https://www.amazon.com/Dangerous-Nation-Americas-Earliest-Twentieth/dp/0375724915)

Ghost at the Feast by Robert Kagan (https://www.amazon.com/Ghost-Feast-Collapse-1900-1941-Dangerous/dp/0307262944/)

“The America trap: Why our enemies often underestimate us,” by Robert Kagan (Excerpt from Ghost at the Feast) in Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/19/robert-kagan-america-trap-world-war-hitler-japan/)

The Better Angels of Our Nature by Steven Pinker (https://www.amazon.com/Better-Angels-Our-Nature-Violence/dp/0143122010)

“The End of History?” by Francis Fukuyama (https://www.jstor.org/stable/24027184)

The Change in the European Balance of Power by Williamson Murray (https://www.amazon.com/Change-European-Balance-Power-1938-1939/dp/0691101612)

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Eliot and Eric welcome Constanze Stelzenmuller, the Director of the Center on the United States and Europe and the Fritz Stern Chair on Germany and Transatlantic Relations at the Brookings Institution. They discuss the current row over Germany providing Leopard Tanks to Ukraine, the political constraints on German Chancellor Olof Scholz, the role of Cold War ostpolitik on contemporary policy debates, the intellectual impact of Carl Schmitt and Victor Klemperer on elite German thinking, and the Hitler-Putin comparison. They end with a discussion on the late Judith Shklar as a political philosopher and teacher of political theory and her writings on power and cruelty.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at [email protected].

Bloodlands by Timothy Snyder (https://www.amazon.com/Bloodlands-Europe-Between-Hitler-Stalin/dp/0465031471)

“Scholz is a wartime chancellor, whether he likes it or not” by Constanze (https://www.ft.com/content/d2fdb3cc-de73-4ad5-85fa-b48a6408f669)

“A Wartime President” by Eliot (https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704107104574571444249809148)

“Obama does not accept war for what it is” by Eliot (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/eliot-cohen-obama-does-not-accept-war-for-what-it-is/2014/07/31/8f27346e-1830-11e4-9e3b-7f2f110c6265_story.html)

The Treaty Offered by Russia in December 2021 (https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en)

Language of the Third Reich by Victor Klemperer (https://www.amazon.com/Language-Third-Reich-Lingua-Imperii/dp/0826491308)

Spiegel Report on Bundeswehr (https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/the-bad-news-bundeswehr-an-examination-of-the-truly-dire-state-of-germany-s-military-a-df92eaaf-e3f9-464d-99a3-ef0c27dcc797)

Helmut Schmidt’s 2014 Interview with Bild (https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/helmut-schmidt/bild-interview-altkanzler-europa-ukraine-krise-36003626.bild.html)

“Liberalism and Fear” by Judith Shklar (https://philpapers.org/archive/SHKTLO.pdf)

Ordinary Vices by Judith Shklar (https://www.amazon.com/Ordinary-Vices-Belknap-Judith-Shklar/dp/0674641760)

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Eric and Eliot welcome John Maurer, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies at the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies at Air University in Alabama and author of Competitive Arms Control, Nixon, Kissinger and SALT, 1969-1972 (Yale University Press, 2022). They discuss the competitive and cooperative approaches to arms control, interagency deliberations and conflicts in the Nixon Administration, the motivations and policies of Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger, and especially Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird. They also talk about the action-reaction model of the arms races and the role of arms control in providing arms race stability and crisis stability to the superpower nuclear arms competition. They conclude with a discussion about how the Nixon Administration's experience with arms control illuminates the subsequent history of Cold War arms control, as well as how that history augurs for the future of arms control in the very different circumstances of today's great power competition.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at [email protected].

Competitive Arms Control: Nixon, Kissinger, and SALT, 1969-1972 (https://www.amazon.com/Competitive-Arms-Control-Kissinger-1969-1972/dp/0300247559)

Book Review Roundtable: Cult of the Irrelevant by John Maurer, et al (https://tnsr.org/roundtable/book-review-roundtable-cult-of-the-irrelevant/)

John Maurer in War on the Rocks (https://warontherocks.com/author/john-maurer/)

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Eric and Eliot welcome their SAIS colleague Michael Mandelbaum to talk about his recent book, The Four Ages of American Foreign Policy. Among other topics, they discuss realism and idealism in U.S. policy, the historical origins of American policymakers’ traditional reliance on the economic instruments of national power, the prospects for U.S. policy towards Russia-Ukraine, China, and Iran, baseball, and mystery fiction.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at [email protected].

Links:

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Eliot and Eric welcome the husband and wife team of Peter Baker of New York Times and Susan Glasser of The New Yorker to discuss their new book, The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2022. They discuss the chronic dysfunction of the Donald Trump national security team, the relationships among James Mattis, H.R. Master, John Kelly, John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, and other senior officials, Trump’s fixation on Vladimir Putin and other strongmen, and civil-military relations under Trump. They conclude with discussing Trump’s foreign policy legacy.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at [email protected].

The Divider by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser (https://www.amazon.com/Divider-Trump-White-House-2017-2021/dp/038554653X)

Sarah Longwell’s Focus Group Podcast (https://thefocusgroup.thebulwark.com/)

Tom Wright’s Politico Essay on Trump and Bob Taft (https://app.slack.com/client/TF4LKCU3G/D03NJE7BA83)

January 6 Committee Report (https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-J6-REPORT/pdf/GPO-J6-REPORT.pdf)

Cassidy Hutchinson’s Testimony’s Transcript (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23506946-cassidy-hutchinson-jan-6-committee-transcript)

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Eliot and Eric look forward to the holidays and review the last year. They talk about the historical significance of the war in Ukraine, the current situation, and possible outcomes. They discuss whether or not this has been a good year for authoritarians around the world and review the situation in China, the prospects for U.S.-China relations (specifically concerning Taiwan), and the popular uprising and revolutionary situation in Iran. They also thank their production team for a great year of Shield of the Republic.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at [email protected].

Financial Times’s Report about Iranians’ Harassments of the Clerics (https://www.ft.com/content/3b6c241c-e792-4970-957b-556a1088d9a8)

Lawry Freedman’s Substack Post on Security Guarantee for Russia (https://samf.substack.com/p/who-can-guarantee-russian-security?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2)

Henry Kissinger’s Peace Plan (https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-push-for-peace/)

Fred Kaplan’s Critique of Henry Kissinger (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/12/henry-kissinger-ukraine-peace-plan-vladimir-putin.html)

Supreme Command (https://www.amazon.com/Supreme-Command-Soldiers-Statesmen-Leadership/dp/1400034043)

Institute for the Study of War (https://www.understandingwar.org/)

Julia Davis’s Twitter (https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor)

New York Times Report about the War (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html)

New York Times Report about U.S.’s Attempt to Save Valery Gerasimov’s Life (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/17/world/europe/russia-war-putin-facts.html)

Congressional Commissions on the National Defense Strategy’s Report (https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2018-11/providing-for-the-common-defense.pdf)

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Eric and Eliot welcome William Inboden to discuss his new book, The Peacemaker: Ronald Reagan, the Cold War and the World on the Brink. They discuss the existing historical literature on Reagan's Presidency and foreign policy, this new book's contribution to the literature, the complexity of the world that Reagan and his colleagues faced in the 1980's, the role of individuals like Secretaries of State Alexander Haig and George Shultz, as well as National Security Advisor Judge William Clark in advancing the Reagan agenda, and the role of ideas—especially democracy promotion in Reagan's approach to national security as well as his nuclear abolitionism. All three reflect on the nature of the relationship between policy process and policy outcomes.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at [email protected].

Eric’s tribute to George Shultz (https://thedispatch.com/article/secretary-of-the-american-century/)

Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union by Vladislav M. Zubok - (https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Soviet-Vladislav-M-Zubok/dp/0300257309)

Reagan at Reykjavik: Forty-Eight Hours That Ended the Cold War by Ken Adel (https://www.amazon.com/Reagan-Reykjavik-Forty-Eight-Hours-Ended/dp/0062310194)

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Eric and Eliot welcome Georgetown Professor Emeritus Robert Lieber to discuss his new book, Indispensable Nation. They discuss the nature of the "rules-based" international order, the unique role that U.S. policy plays in sustaining the order, the true disruptive challenges to the order, the nature of political opposition to a robust U.S. foreign policy, political "realism" and its flaws, as well as the increasing challenges for teaching of international relations in the academy.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at [email protected].

Eliot's “Cut the Baloney Realism” or “Stop Talking About Talking" (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/russia-ukraine-negotations-mark-milley/672198/)

Robert Lieber’s Indispensable Nation (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0B5MH82TV/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i0)

Robert Lieber’s Retreat And Its Consequences (https://www.amazon.com/Retreat-its-Consequences-American-Foreign/dp/1316506711)

Team America: World Police Hans Blix Scene (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TEvacFETvM)

Andrey Sushentsov and William Wohlforth’s "The tragedy of US–Russian relations: NATO centrality and the revisionists’ spiral” (https://www.proquest.com/docview/2405756420)

John Mearsheimer’s Revealing Interview With The New Yorker (https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/john-mearsheimer-on-putins-ambitions-after-nine-months-of-war)

“Yes, It’s Anti-Semitic:” Eliot’s Review of The Israel Lobby by John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt (https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2006/04/05/yes-its-anti-semitic/e7de5f13-60d5-4567-9090-8d24c8237801/)

Robert Lieber’s Review of John Mearsheimer’s The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (https://www.psqonline.org/article.cfm?IDArticle=14655)

Eric and David Kramer’s “Now Is Not the Time to Negotiate with Putin” (https://www.thebulwark.com/now-is-not-the-time-to-negotiate-with-putin/)

Eric and David Kramer’s “Don’t Go Wobbly on Ukraine" (https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/dont-go-wobbly-on-ukraine/)

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Eric and Eliot welcome Council on Foreign Relations Fellow Ray Takeyh to discuss the ongoing popular uprising in Iran. They talk about Ray’s article on Iran’s next revolution in the current issue of Commentary, the state of play in the protests, the weaknesses of the regime, comparisons between the 1979 Revolution, the 2009 election protests, and the current situation. Along with political dissident from Iran and SotR producer Shay Khatiri, they also touch on the prospects for regime change, Iran’s role as a weapons supplier to Russia, and what the Biden Administration should do about all this.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at [email protected].

The Last Shah by Ray Takeyh (https://www.amazon.com/Last-Shah-America-Pahlavi-Relations/dp/030021779X)

"Iran’s Hard-Liners Are Starting to Crack" by Ray and Reuel Marc Gerecht (https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-hardliners-khomeini-supreme-leader-protests-larijani-rouhani-morality-police-newspaper-chief-justice-criticism-regime-change-1979-11667410559)

"A Second Iranian Revolution" by Ray Takeyh (https://www.commentary.org/articles/ray-takeyh/second-iranian-revolution/)

Revolution & Aftermath by Ray and Eric (https://www.amazon.com/Revolution-Aftermath-Forging-Strategy-toward/dp/0817921540)

The Next Iranian Revolution” by Ray and Eric (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2020-04-13/next-iranian-revolution)

"The Self-Limiting Success of Iran Sanctions” by Ray and Suzanne Maloney (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-self-limiting-success-of-iran-sanctions/)

Shay Khatiri’s Substack The Russia-Iran File (https://shaykhatiri.substack.com/)

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