Shotwell Rutter Baer

In this quarterly recap, David Shotwell and Nick Nauta look back at how markets finished 2025 and share what they are watching in 2026. They cover the spring volatility that tested investor patience, why diversification mattered again, and how a traditional 60/40 mix held up. They also share a balanced “glass half full, glass half empty” view of the economy, then close with the main risks and opportunities for the year ahead.

There were important investment lessons to be learned in 2025: First, the year saw extreme volatility, with big gains to be had for those who could stomach the ride up, down, and back up again. Investment discipline was the key to another great year of returns. The length of time between the worst daily performance for the S&P 500 and the best was only five days. Reacting to the market turbulence in early April, as the market responded to quickly – shifting trade policy out of Washington, would have meant missing out on the fast recovery and positive market run that followed. 

The second lesson of 2025 was the value of diversification. While the S&P 500 returned over 17% for the year, the leaders driving that return shifted, with only two of the so – called Magnificent Seven tech stocks outpacing the broader market. Betting on a narrow sector of the market can lead to missed opportunities. Further emphasizing the lesson of diversification, after several years lagging US markets, 2025 saw significant outperformance from international markets with developed international and emerging market indices ending the year up over 30% and boosting portfolio return significantly. 

As we move into 2026, the economic signals remain strong, but the signals are mixed. Economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product, has been robust, but the labor market, while still strong, shows signs of weakening. Meanwhile, inflation has remained moderate – higher than the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2% but remaining below 3% despite concerns that tariffs and government spending might cause a spike.  

As usual, our portfolio advisors at East Bay Investment Solutions prefer to take a balanced approach to market guidance, and their Glass half-full / Glass half – empty chart is below. You can download their full commentary and deep explanation of the issues outlined above here or click here if you prefer to watch their recorded presentation. 

Discipline mattered in 2025. A sharp early April drop was followed by a fast rebound, and the year still finished strong.

Diversification paid off. International stocks delivered strong results, and most “Magnificent Seven” names lagged the broader S&P 500.

The economy sent mixed signals. Growth was strong, while unemployment moved higher and inflation stayed above the Fed’s target.

The 60/40 is still relevant. A balanced stock and bond mix produced a strong year with less volatility than an all stock approach.

For 2026, stay focused on what you can control. Markets will have risks and opportunities, and your plan should be built for both.

Why 2025 rewarded patient investors

The case for owning international stocks

Stock market breadth and the shift away from a narrow group of mega cap tech leaders

GDP strength, unemployment trends, and why inflation can feel different than the official number

60/40 portfolio results and risk adjusted returns

2026 risk list: deficits, geopolitics, labor shifts, shutdown risk, and Fed independence

2026 opportunity list: AI investment, steadier trade policy, consumer spending, and possible rate cuts

Charts mentioned (for reference in the episode)

S&P 500 drawdown and rebound around early April 2025

Rolling 12 month leadership: US stocks versus international stocks

2025 performance: S&P 500, international equities, and bonds

Magnificent Seven relative performance versus the S&P 500

Contact SRB today at 517-321-4832 or email us at [email protected].
Don’t forget to subscribe to our channel for more bite sized financial and retirement tips. https://www.youtube.com/@shotwellrutterbaer

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Welcome back to Kitchen Table Finance. Season 5 kicks off with one of our favorite annual traditions, reviewing last year’s market predictions and locking in new ones for the year ahead. Hosts David Shotwell and Nick Nauta are joined by newly credentialed CFP Cole Williams, who jumps right into the fire with his first official prediction episode.

Watch the Full Video HERE

In this conversation, we look back at how 2025 actually unfolded compared to expectations. We discuss stock market returns, sector performance, volatility, inflation, interest rates, and how global markets surprised almost everyone. We also talk through why diversification continues to matter, even when predictions miss the mark.

From there, we turn the page to 2026. You will hear our thoughts on where the S&P 500 could end the year, which market sectors may outperform or struggle, and which asset classes could see renewed momentum. We also touch on emerging markets, small caps, technology, energy, healthcare, and real estate.

The episode wraps up with some lighter predictions, including Bitcoin, geopolitical headlines, and sports forecasts that may or may not age well. As always, the goal is not to be perfect, but to help listeners understand how uncertainty fits into long-term planning.

If you enjoy thoughtful conversations about markets, retirement planning, and staying grounded when the headlines get loud, this episode sets the tone for the year ahead.

Contact SRB today at 517-321-4832 or email us at [email protected]. Don’t forget to subscribe to our channel for more bite-sized financial and retirement tips. https://www.youtube.com/@shotwellrutterbaer

The post S5E1 – 2026 Market Predictions appeared first on Shotwell Rutter Baer.

In this episode of Kitchen Table Finance, David Shotwell and Nick Nauta sit down at the kitchen table with intern Stephen Bowe to talk about his path into wealth management, lessons learned during his internship, and how young professionals can find their place in the financial planning world.

Stephen shares how Michigan State University and the Wealth Management Association helped shape his career direction, why long-term investing matters early, and what surprised him most about real-world retirement planning.

The conversation also explores the intersection of marketing and wealth management, the value of hands-on experience, and why most successful retirement plans look far better than people expect. Whether you are a Michigan State University employee nearing retirement, a young professional exploring finance careers, or someone who wants reassurance about their retirement plan, this episode offers practical and relatable insight.

Contact SRB today at 517-321-4832 or email us at [email protected].

Don’t forget to subscribe to our channel for more bite-sized financial and retirement tips. https://www.youtube.com/@shotwellrutterbaer

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The SECURE Act changed the game for inherited IRAs, especially for non-spouse beneficiaries. What used to be a “stretch IRA” strategy (spreading withdrawals over a lifetime) is now, for most people, a 10-year clock: the inherited IRA generally needs to be fully distributed by the end of the 10th year. David and Nick break down what changed, why IRS guidance took so long to clarify, and how families can plan around the tax ripple effects—particularly when kids inherit IRAs in their peak earning years.

Watch the full episode on YouTube HERE.

The “stretch IRA” mostly applies now only to eligible designated beneficiaries (with spouses treated differently).

For many heirs (like adult children), the inherited IRA often must be emptied by the end of year 10—which can create a major tax planning puzzle.

Big inherited balances + high-earning heirs can equal bigger tax brackets and less flexibility.

Don’t let the tax tail wag the dog: planning should support your bigger goals, not just minimize taxes at all costs.

Increase the number of beneficiaries (even considering grandkids in the right situations) to spread income and tax impact

Think holistically: who should inherit IRAs vs. Roth vs. brokerage assets

Charities can be ideal IRA beneficiaries since they typically don’t pay income tax

Consider whether it ever makes sense to bypass the spouse at first death (only in very specific situations)

Roth conversions as a way to pay tax at a potentially lower rate now and leave heirs tax-free withdrawals later

Strategic beneficiary designations: review them regularly and understand the tradeoffs

“If somebody wants to leave me any amount of money, I’ll gladly pay taxes on it.”

Have questions about inherited IRAs, Roth conversions, or beneficiary strategy?
Contact SRB today at 517-321-4832 or email us at [email protected].

Don’t forget to subscribe to our YouTube Channel at https://www.youtube.com/@shotwellrutterbaer

Welcome to Kitchen Table Finance
Bite-sized financial advice to simplify your money and your life.

The SECURE Act & the “Death of the Stretch IRA”
Why inherited IRA rules quietly changed and why people are only noticing now.

Why These Changes Flew Under the Radar
COVID, delayed IRS guidance, and confusion around implementation.

Who Can Still Stretch an IRA (And Who Can’t)
Non-spouse beneficiaries vs. surviving spouses explained.

The 10-Year Rule for Inherited IRAs
What most children now face when inheriting an IRA.

The Real Tax Problem: Peak Earning Years
Why adult children inheriting large IRAs often face higher tax bills.

Perspective Check: Is the Tax Bill Really the Problem?
Avoid letting tax fears drive irrational decisions.

Strategy #1: Increasing the Number of Beneficiaries
When spreading beneficiaries (including grandkids) can help—and when it doesn’t.

Matching Assets to Beneficiaries
Who should inherit IRAs vs. Roth accounts vs. taxable assets.

Charities as IRA Beneficiaries
Why charities are often the most tax-efficient option.

Bypassing a Spouse: When It Might Make Sense
Splitting beneficiary designations and using multiple 10-year windows.

Strategy #2: Roth Conversions
Paying taxes now to potentially save your kids money later.

Should Kids Help Pay for Roth Conversions?
Intergenerational planning opportunities—and risks.

Talking About Money Across Generations
Why family conversations can prevent planning mistakes.

Strategy #3: Strategic Beneficiary Designations
Understanding the “third beneficiary” — the IRS.

Don’t Let Taxes Override Your Life Goals
Balancing tax planning with enjoyment, spending, and impact.

Final Thoughts on Inherited IRA Planning
Why there’s no one-size-fits-all answer.

How SRB Can Help
Planning inherited IRAs, retirement, and legacy strategies.

Closing & Subscribe
Stay connected for more Kitchen Table Finance conversations.

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The headlines are loud. AI stocks are wobbling. The market is jumpy. If you are retired or getting close, it is easy to wonder if this is the moment everything falls apart.

In this episode of Kitchen Table Finance, Dave Shotwell and Nick Nauta talk through the recent AI stock jitters and what market volatility really means for long term investors, especially retirees. They explain why a three or four percent pullback is not the end of the world, why investor psychology can do more damage than the market itself, and how a good financial plan is built with downturns already in mind.

They also revisit some core planning habits that help people sleep at night in rough markets, like keeping enough cash set aside, understanding your true risk level, and having a plan for what you will do if fear pushes you toward drastic moves.

Check out the YouTube Video for this episode HERE.

In this episode, you will hear about:

Why the recent concern about an “AI bubble” feels familiar if you remember the internet boom

How to think about short term volatility versus long term economic growth

Why pessimists probably should not be stock investors in the first place

The role of cash reserves for retirees and people close to retirement

How action bias and fear can lead to harmful timing decisions

Why your own diversified portfolio rarely matches the worst headlines

How to “de catastrophize” the news and think in realistic ranges of outcomes

Practical ideas for people who feel so anxious that they are losing sleep

How a financial planner can act as a calm sounding board when markets are rough

Whether you are already retired or just starting to think about what your future income will look like, this conversation can help you separate noise from what actually matters.

Ready to talk through your own plan?
Visit SRBAdvisors.com to schedule a time with the team and see if they are a good fit to help you reach your financial goals.

The post S4E36 – Is the AI Bubble About to Ruin Your Retirement? appeared first on Shotwell Rutter Baer.

Life Planning, Retirement, and Why It Is “Never About the Money”

In this episode, Dave flips the script and interviews Nick about how life planning has become a core part of the SRB client process. Nick shares how training with George Kinder and the EVOKE model shaped the way SRB helps clients think through retirement, not just from a numbers standpoint, but from the perspective of values, priorities, and real life goals.

They walk through how the EVOKE structure fits into SRB’s retirement planning work, what actually happens in those conversations, and the kinds of insights clients discover when they finally slow down and think about what they want the next phase of life to look like. Nick also explains why most client “dreams” are less about big, flashy goals and more about time, family, and reducing worry.

You will hear:

How SRB discovered life planning through George Kinder’s work

A plain language overview of the EVOKE process and how SRB uses it with new retirement clients

Why the first three stages focus on widening the conversation beyond money

Real outcomes from clients who learned they were either not ready to retire or more than ready

Why many clients already have “enough” and what to do with that knowledge

How life planning shifts decisions about Roth conversions, gifting to kids, and travel

The link between clear life goals and better follow through on investment and tax strategies

How life planning helps advisors avoid assumptions about what clients value

Why the plan on paper will always change, and why that is expected

Nick’s experience being life planned himself, and why he keeps going back to the process

How SRB is expanding life planning capacity by training Cole as a Registered Life Planner

If you are approaching retirement, feel like you might have “enough” but are not sure what comes next, or want your financial plan to reflect your real life priorities, this conversation will give you a feel for how life planning works at SRB and why it might be the missing piece in your retirement planning.

Ready to talk about your own life plan?
Start with a relaxed fit meeting to see if SRB is a good match for your needs.

Visit: srbadvisors.com

Contact: [email protected]

Subscribe to Kitchen Table Finance for more conversations about retirement, investing, and planning for the future.

https://youtu.be/1xbJ_Uhvpfg

A lot of people plan for retirement financially. Fewer people plan for it physically. On this episode, Nick talks with Julie Wilde, a former global business leader who reinvented her career as a health coach. Julie works with busy professionals, couples, and retirees to help them build energy, reduce stress, and feel better in their daily lives as they transition toward retirement.

Watch on YouTube HERE

In this conversation, Nick and Julie dig into:

• Why your health is one of the most valuable assets you have in retirement
• Why prevention and daily habits matter more than quick fixes
• How small changes can lower risk for expensive health problems later
• What it really means to build a strong foundation for healthy aging
• Why health is emotional, just like money
• Why it is so easy to set health goals and still not follow through
• The mindset shift that helps people finally commit and get results

Julie also walks through a simple first step for anyone who is five years or less from retiring. She explains how to assess where you are, what is working, and where you may want to improve. She calls this gaining clarity. You can download her Health Clarity Review HERE.

Your health is an investment, not an afterthought.
Julie makes the case that your health is something that compounds over time, just like retirement savings. Most of us would spend any amount of money to get our health back once we lose it. So it makes sense to protect it now instead of waiting.

Give your health a place at the front of the line.
For many people in their 50s and 60s, work, kids, grandkids, and obligations tend to crowd out basic self care. Julie suggests one simple shift. Move health from the bottom of the list to the top. When you make that mental change, your habits begin to follow.

Build your foundation before you retire.
Good sleep, steady movement, stress management, and food choices that actually fuel your body are not complicated ideas. The challenge is making them consistent. Julie explains why this foundation can help you stay active longer, delay or reduce medical costs, and enjoy what you saved for.

Track how you feel, not just a number on the scale.
Nick and Julie talk about how easy it is to let a number define success. Body weight. Step count. Sleep score. Those tools can help, but they are not the whole story. Julie recommends paying attention to signals from your body and even keeping short notes about energy, sleep quality, and mood over time.

Why people struggle to follow through.
Most people have good intentions. The problem is commitment. Julie explains why being fully in matters. When your goals and your daily habits are not aligned, you get stuck in repeat mode. When they line up, change finally happens.

Julie shares a simple exercise you can do in about five minutes:

Write down why your health matters to you in this stage of life.

Rate yourself in areas like sleep, energy, movement, stress, and eating habits.

Note one small action for each area. That becomes the start of your personal plan.

Health Clarity Review download

Connect with Julie Wilde
Website
LinkedIn

Julie Wilde is the founder of Transformed With Wellness. She works with professionals, couples, and groups through a whole person approach she calls 10 Weeks to Transformation. Her focus is simple. Help people build energy, feel better, and stay capable in the years leading up to retirement and beyond.

Kitchen Table Finance is hosted by Nick Nauta and Dave Shotwell of Shotwell Rutter Baer. We help clients plan for retirement with clarity and confidence. If you would like to start the retirement planning conversation, visit srbadvisors.com to schedule a fit meeting.

[email protected]

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel!

In this quarter-end chat, Dave Shotwell and Nick Nauta unpack what actually happened in Q3 2025 and why portfolios held up despite a steady stream of gloomy headlines. They cover broad market strength, the first Fed rate cut in September, what a government shutdown usually means for markets, and how to think about AI spending without trying to pick winners.

Our portfolio advisors at East Bay Investment Solutions provide the following summary, and as always, they try to take a balanced approach between reasons for optimism and pessimism. You can read their full report HERE or watch Mario’s video presentation HERE.

https://youtu.be/yoM8rETe5FI

Broad gains: Most major stock and bond categories finished Q3 positive, while U.S. REITs lagged.

60/40 perspective: A diversified mix of global stocks and high-quality bonds continued to post solid results with less day-to-day swings than a pure stock approach.

Fed update: After a September cut, the policy rate sits in a middle range, giving room to adjust up or down as data changes.

AI reality check: Corporate spending tied to AI is robust, but future revenues remain uncertain. Diversification helps you own the eventual winners without betting the farm.

Shutdown noise: Historically, market returns during federal shutdowns have been mixed and often muted. Time in the market still matters more than headline timing.

Planning first: Your financial plan is built for many markets, not just the current one.

Fed funds target range: 4% to 4.25%

Cumulative AI spend (through last year): about $211 billion

Average S&P 500 return during shutdowns: about 0.11%

Year-to-date result cited for a 60/40 portfolio: 12.6%

Learn more or schedule a fit meeting: srbadvisors.com

Email: [email protected]

Don’t forget to subscribe to our YouTube Channel for all the latest videos.

Guest: Kevin Skarritt (pronounced “scare it”)

Kevin shares a real-world look at retiring in stages, shifting identity after work, and building a life that feels meaningful day to day. From an early career on the trading desk to web development, branding, and agency ownership, Kevin eventually traded deadlines for woodworking, stained glass, music, and time on the water in Ludington, Michigan. He talks candidly about timing a move, budgeting with a spouse, the value of a trusted financial planner, and adapting when health surprises change the plan.

https://youtu.be/ilmQXiLMTT4

From markets to makerspace: Kevin’s path from Series 7 stockbroker to web and branding agency owner, then into retired life filled with creative projects.

The 2008 reset: How losing key clients forced hard choices and a cross-country move, with college costs on the horizon.

Planning the pivot: Talking through retirement years in advance, right-sizing lifestyle, and using a financial plan to set boundaries that still allow for joy.

Retire to something: Why it helps to list hobbies, volunteer ideas, and part-time interests before you leave work.

When plans change: Health events that limited some outdoor goals, and how Kevin built a deep bench of interests so he never feels stuck.

Home base by the lake: Why Ludington checked the boxes for nature, trails, and a strong arts community.

Money talk as a team: Budgeting styles in marriage, aligning on priorities, and the simple rule they use now: if it brings real joy and fits the plan, it’s worth it.

Time apart matters: Practical advice for couples who suddenly spend every hour together after retirement.

Start retirement talks early and revisit them regularly.

Work with a financial advisor to set spending guardrails you can trust.

List at least three activities you can do if your first choice becomes tough.

Build structure in your week even without a traditional schedule.

Plan for healthy space as a couple.

Retirement works best when you know what you are going to, not only what you are leaving.

A clear plan gives you confidence to spend on what matters.

Flexibility is a skill; practice it before you need it.

00:00 Intro and guest welcome

02:10 Kevin’s winding path through finance, science, and the web

10:45 Agency downturn, relocation, and college bills

17:40 Early retirement talks and the role of planning

23:20 “Retire to something” and building a bench of interests

28:30 Health surprises and staying adaptable

33:10 Why Ludington and the pull of the arts community

38:00 Budgeting together and spending for joy

43:10 Time apart for couples in retirement

46:30 Final thoughts and contact info

Have questions about your own retirement timeline? Start with a Fit Meeting at srbadvisors.com or email [email protected].

The Fed has been everywhere in the headlines. In our latest Kitchen Table Finance episode, we explain what the Federal Reserve is, why its independence matters, and how a rate-cutting cycle may ripple through cash yields, bonds, and mortgages. If you’re 6–18 months from retirement, we also share level-headed steps to keep your plan on track.

https://youtu.be/thvg8Gti424

Fed 101: Why the Fed was created, how it’s structured, and its main goals: price stability and maximum employment.

Independence matters: How keeping the Fed insulated from short-term politics supports confidence in the dollar and long-term stability.

Goldilocks problem: Balancing a cooling labor market with inflation risks, tariffs, and growth.

Portfolio takeaways: Why “don’t fight the Fed” is a useful reminder, and why we don’t overhaul portfolios based on predictions.

Cash, CDs, and bonds: What a falling-rate environment can mean for yields, existing bonds, and locking CDs.

Mortgages & refi: Practical thresholds for when to explore refinancing and why you shouldn’t buy a home assuming a quick refi.

Pre-retiree checklist: How to think about cash buffers, bond exposure, and staying invested if retirement is 6–18 months away.

Keep enough cash for near-term needs; avoid parking excess cash for long stretches if yields are sliding.

Bonds may benefit as rates fall; new issues price lower yields, supporting existing bond values.

CDs can help smooth falling yields, but remember reinvestment risk when they mature.

Refinancing: Start running numbers when rates are roughly 1 percentage point below your current mortgage rate.

Stay the course: Markets look ahead. Rate cuts often follow softness that has already been priced in.

Thinking about retiring soon or adjusting your plan? Schedule a relaxed “fit” conversation at SRBadvisors.com and let’s make a plan that fits your life.

Email us at SRBadvisors.com to connect with our team.

Learn about the Strategic Reliable Blueprint which is our process for building a financial plan that works for your future.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel for helpful conversations and practical retirement planning tips.