Almost a month since ‘liberation day’, the potential impacts of President Donald Trump’s tariff regime are starting to sink in. US hard data isn’t yet showing much negative impact from changes to US trade policy – but economists are gloomy on US growth prospects. The IMF last week warned of an increased risk of US recession, and lopped nearly a full percentage point off its forecast for US growth this year. Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, joins FT economics editor Sam Fleming to discuss how Trump’s tariff agenda may play out, which forces could force the president to change tack, and what that might look like.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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