On 31 March, Ukraine will hold presidential elections, with the race currently too close to call. Incumbent Petro Poroshenko, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy are leading the polls with a second round likely. This podcast will assess the key issues of the campaign and determine the impact of the uncertainty surrounding the election's outcome.

Key points include:

• Direction of the Donbas conflict over 2019

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at [email protected]

The 14 February suicide bomb attack on Indian paramilitary troops prompted an extended fallout between Islamabad and New Delhi with a series of retaliatory actions raising fears of a broader conflict. This podcast will examine the current status of India-Pakistan relations and likelihood of escalation to broader confrontational scenarios.

Key points include:

• Context of the war in Kashmir

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at [email protected]

Ahead of European Parliament elections in May 2019 where mainstream centrist factions are set to lose their absolute majority for the first time in EU history, we assess policy risks and operational implications of the election.

Key points include:

• Implications for the policies and configuration of the new European Commission

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at [email protected]

On 31 January, France, Germany and the UK launched a special purpose vehicle to facilitate trade between the EU and Iran. The vehicle, termed the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) will initially be applicable for transactions involving humanitarian aid, food and pharmaceuticals, with the potential to extend to cover other industries in the coming months. Here we discuss the drivers behind INSTEX and its implications on the regional and business environment both in Europe and the Middle East.

Key points include:

• How and why INSTEX was introduced and current EU policy towards Iran

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at [email protected]

Since the announcement of the US’ intended military withdrawal in Syria, regional stakeholders have intensified their political wrangling over influence and power in the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan met in Moscow on 23 January, where questions over the future of a planned security zone in Idlib dominated the discussion.

Key points include:

• The changing nature of the Syrian conflict and how this may develop throughout the coming year

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at [email protected]

The 17 January warnings made by Chinese Ambassador to Canada Lu Shaye exacerbated the deterioration in relations between the two countries. The incident adds to the recent attention given to relations between the US, Canada, and China.

In this podcast we break down the areas of concern between the countries into three different categories: the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou and resulting fallout, ongoing Sino-American trade negotiations, and US-driven national security concerns regarding Chinese companies. After analysing these three categories, we give our predictions on how they will evolve, and highlight associated risks to Canadian and American companies and individuals.

Key points include:

• Analysis of the relationship between the scrutiny of Huawei, ongoing trade negotiations, and concerns over espionage and intellectual property theft

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at [email protected]

The 25 November seizure of three Ukrainian naval vessels by Russian forces in the Kerch Strait has further exacerbated tensions between Kyiv and Moscow, with Ukraine implementing martial law and banning Russians from entering the country.

In this podcast we look at how these events are shaping the operating environment ahead of the 31 March presidential election and look at the risks of further disruption, the threat to government stability, and impacts on regional business operations.

Key points include:

• Analysis of the Azov incident and subsequent Ukrainian reactions

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at [email protected]

On 4 December, Prime Minister Édouard Philippe announced a 6-month suspension of the fuel tax and other appeasing measures in response to recent violent unrest in France. We expect this will help reduce the numbers of demonstrators in the streets, though further disruption and elevated property damage risks are likely to endure.

Key points include:

• Analysis of key actors and agendas in the recent protests

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at [email protected]

Sri Lanka’s ongoing political deadlock and recent anti-blasphemy protests in Pakistan underscore the willingness of powerful groups and individuals to exploit religious fault lines in order to further a political agenda. In this podcast we examine the recent evolution of this trend in South Asia and explore the affiliated security risks.

Key points include:

• The presence of more hard-line religious sentiment in Pakistan

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at [email protected]

Following Chancellor Angela Merkel’s 29 October announcement that she will not stand for re-election as CDU party leader in the upcoming vote, we look at her most likely successors and analyse the long-term impacts on the political and economic situation in Germany and the European Union.

Key points include:

• Analysis of the upcoming CDU leadership election

We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at [email protected]