There's been a lot of talk recently about the possibility of the US and China going to war if China invades Taiwan, but as usual, I'm here to dampen the hype and reduce expectations. Let's not rush into WWIII, and instead have a rational conversation about how likely war between the world's foremost superpowers actually is.

Sorry for the delay in episodes, was away with the family over Easter.

Chapters
2:30 What is Taiwan? The One China Policy
05:24 Taiwanese cultural politics and identity
15:20 We would all die
21:20 Pyrrhic victory
27:44: China's other strategy
31:45: Taiwan's situation
41:55: Taiwan is not a priority for the US
48:00 Conclusions

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Sources

Melissa J. Brown, Is Taiwan Chinese?The Impact of Culture, Power, and Migration on Changing Identities

Chris Miller, Chip War:The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology

Kerry Brown and Kalley Wu Tzu-Hui, The Trouble With Taiwan: History, Identity and a Rising China_ History, the United States and a Rising China

CSIS, The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan (https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan)

The New York Times, Who Benefits From Confrontation With China

Syaru Lin, Taiwan’s China Dilemma, Contested Identities and Multiple Interests in Taiwan’s Cross-Strait Economic Policy-Stanford University Press

The National Interest, The Worrisome Erosion of the One China Policy

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China is on a mission to build world peace, but why now? What qualifications do they have to be a mediator? Will the peace they bring about be a stable, lasting one? Are they better than the UN? Is neutrality a core feature of a good third-party mediator? What do they stand to gain from the Saudi Arabia-Iran deal? Is their plan for peace between Ukraine and Russia viable? Is democracy a prerequisite for peace in the modern world? Will globalisation perish or flourish as a result in the rise of transactional peace?

So many questions. About 2, maybe 3, answers.

00:00 Intro
00:57 Context questions: what is going on?
02:06 What makes a good mediator?
12:24 The quest for global governance
15:49 The Saudi-Iran deal
21:21 The end of the Russia Ukraine War?
24:49: Does it matter that China isn't neutral?
30:16 The democracy problem
35:19 A new world order?

Sources

The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Global Security Studies https://link.springer.com/referencework/10.1007/978-3-319-74319-6

China Daily, Nation hailed for brokering Saudi-Iranian agreement https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202303/15/WS6411031ea31057c47ebb4741_1.html

China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html

The Economist, The world according to Xi, https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/03/23/the-world-according-to-xi

Contemporary Peacemaking: Peace Processes, Peacebuilding, and Conflict, Roger Mac Guinty and Anthony Wallis-St. John eds.

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The biggest meeting of China's government just took place. This historic Two Sessions saw Xi Jinping elected to an unprecedented third term as president, the new government staffed with his followers, and changes to legislation that will see the Chinese Communist Party gain an even tighter grip on power. What do the proclamations about the economy, foreign relations, Taiwan, the United States, and domestic policies tell us about China's policy direction for the next five years? 

00:00 Intro
01:43 What are the NPC and CPPCC?
05:37 Personnel (non)changes
13:33 Government reform
22:30 Economic highlights
27:26 Li Qiang
34:35 Xi Jinping
38:50 Outro

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Bert Hoffman’s newsletter: https://substack.com/inbox/post/108149817 

NPC Observer: https://npcobserver.com/2023/03/04/npc-2023-agenda-and-daily-schedule/

Two Sessions in statistics: https://sinobabble.substack.com/p/the-two-sessions-but-make-it-statistics

On the Social Credit System: https://sinobabble.substack.com/p/moral-honest-helpful-chinas-social

Li Qiang's full Q&A text: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202303/t20230314_11040394.html

Xi Jinping speech full text: https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-03-14/Full-text-of-Xi-Jinping-s-speech-at-first-session-of-14th-NPC-1iaLpfkemB2/index.html

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In 2019 China introduced an Extradition Law that sparked protests across Hong Kong. In this episode we revisit Hong Kong and get up to speed on how the national security law has changed life for the people who have stayed. What plans does the CCP have to revamp the economy and plug the brain drain? And where are all the people leaving going?

Chapters
Background: 00:10
Hong Kong 47: 07:40
National Security Law updates: 17:55
Post-covid lull: 22:47
Migration: 24:37
Outro: 30:49

Sources
What does the National Security Law actually say again? (March 2021) https://sinobabble.substack.com/p/what-does-the-national-security-law 

Apple Daily and the end of Hong Kong (July 2021) https://sinobabble.substack.com/p/apple-daily-and-the-end-of-hong-kong 

The sinking ship (Jul 2022) https://sinobabble.substack.com/p/the-sinking-ship

47 democrats charged with ‘conspiracy to commit subversion’ over legislative primaries https://hongkongfp.com/2021/02/28/47-democrats-charged-with-conspiracy-to-commit-subversion-over-legislative-primaries/ 

Hong 47 Trial https://hongkongfp.com/hong-kongs-47-democrats-national-security-trial/ 

National security law trial of 47 opposition figures starts in Hong Kong (Global Times) https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202302/1284940.shtml

‘The frontline in our homes’: Covid-19’s lasting impact on Hong Kong’s migrant domestic workers https://hongkongfp.com/2023/01/29/the-frontline-in-our-homes-covid-19s-lasting-impact-on-hong-kongs-migrant-domestic-workers/ 

HK$2bn ‘Hello Hong Kong’ campaign gives away 500,000 plane tickets to help reboot tourism https://hongkongfp.com/2023/02/02/hk2bn-hello-hong-kong-campaign-gives-away-500000-plane-tickets-to-help-reboot-tourism/

Hong Kong’s population drops for 3rd straight year, while city posts net outflow of 60,000 residents in 2022 https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/society/article/3210429/hong-kong-emigration-wave-net-outflow-60000-residents-2022-marking-09-cent-population-drop-3rd

Understanding Migration into Greater Bay Area Cities in Mainland China as an Investment for Hong Kong Young Adults
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-16-9531-5_5 

The intention to migrate from more developed to less developed areas: evidence from Hong Kong https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17441730.2022.2087933?journalCode=raps20

SURVEY: 72% HONGKONGERS ATTRACTED TO MAINLAND GBA OPPORTUNITIES https://www.oliverwyman.com/media-center/2022/jul/survey-72-hongkongers-attracted-to-mainland-gba-opportunities.html

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There's been a lot of speculation in the news recently over whether or not China will come to Russia's aid in the fight in Ukraine. Although many Western outlets are panicking about the likelihood, is it as straightforward as China jumping into the fray? The answer may lie in the recent history of the relationship of the two powers.

Sources
"China and Russia: Economic Unequals", Jonathan E. Hillman, 2020
"China’s Relations with Russia", Alexei D. Voskressenski (in China and the World, David Shambaugh eds.), 2020
"FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS?: Russian-Chinese Relations After the Ukraine Crisis", Alexander Gabuev, 2016
"The "Rise" of China in the Eyes of Russia: A Source of Threats or New Opportunities?", Anastasia Solomentseva, 2014
"Russia: New Eastern Perspectives", Vladimir Putin, 2000
"Will China rescue Russia", Sinobabble Substack
Axis of authoritarians:  Implications of China-Russia Cooperation,  Richard J. Ellings and Robert Sutter, 2018
"China and Russia: united in opposition", Roderick Kefferpütz (text) and Vincent Brussee (data), 2022
"Moscow’s Failed Pivot to China", Thomas S. Eder and Mikko Huotari, 2016

Chapters
00:00: Intro
02:07: Deng Xiaoping Era
03:49: Jiang Zemin Era
09:50: Hu Jintao Era
17:43: Xi Jinping Era
23:35: The Future of China-Russia Relations
27:30: Outro

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China's Belt and Road Initiative turns 10 years old this year. Launched by Xi Jinping in 2013 as a way to "promote infrastructure construction and connectivity, align national policies and development strategies, deepen practical cooperation, promote coordinated and interconnected development, and achieve common prosperity,” many analysts think that the BRI is on the brink of collapse. 

Plagued with allegations of creating debt traps, aiding corrupt governments, and causing ecological damage, there are many who are suspicious and disapproving of the new Silk Road. But China insists that its plans are for the good of the global economy, and is a crucial tool in fighting poverty.

Will the BRI be able to survive the post-pandemic global economic slowdown? Or is China's flagship globalist policy a vital lifeline for developing and emerging countries that have otherwise been overlooked by Western nations?

Substack: https://sinobabble.substack.com/

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Intro: 00:00
What is the Belt and Road?: 03:00
China's view on BRI: 06:22
World Bank analysis: 11:03
Western/anti-BRI views: 14:27
BRI in Tajikistan: 20:30 
BRI in Nigeria: 22:25
Labour and security: 26:10
BRI in Vietnam: 26:45
BRI in Ghana: 28:16
BRI as a debt trap?: 30:15
BRI post-lockdown: 32:56
Outro: 36:46

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A recently released statement by the UN expresses concern about residential schools in the province that take children away from their ancestral homes, suppressing language and religious teaching, and causing cultural genocide.

The CCP argues that its policy in Tibet is to create a prosperous region that is integrated with the whole, and protects China's borders from incursion.

Is Tibetan culture being erased? Or is Tibet merely suffering from the same global capitalist forces that have transformed China over the past century?

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Chapters
Intro: 00:00
UN Statement on Tibet: 2:20
Western views on Tibet: 8:22
Chinese views on Tibet: 15:16
Tibet as a victim of globalism: 22:39
Summary: 28:07
Outro: 31:21

References and sources

• 40 years of China's war on poverty, Zhu and Peng
• "Social Construction of National Reality: Tibet and Taiwan" Yu and Kwan
• Cultural Genocide and Asian State Peripheries, “Tibet and the (Mis-) Representation of Cultural Genocide”, Barry Sautman
• China shuts down historic monastery, evicts monks and nuns: https://savetibet.org/china-shut-downs-historic-monastery-evicts-monks-and-nuns/
• UN statement: https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/02/china-un-experts-alarmed-separation-1-million-tibetan-children-families-and
• China's victory over poverty a great modern achievement: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202012/02/WS5fc6e710a31024ad0ba99340.html
• Tibet prospers from a decade of economic and social development: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202208/26/WS630803dea310fd2b29e744dc.html
• Aid-Tibet program marks significant success: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202207/26/WS62df9acda310fd2b29e6e79a.html
• Tibet podcast episode: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1jnKLWEBbVKiydDW2g6LLF

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The death of Mao Zedong and the trial of the Gang of Four are traditionally used as the signifiers of the end of the Cultural Revolution. The violent and turbulent 10 year period came to a sudden stop as political in-fighting continued until Deng Xiaoping was able to quash his foes and come out on top.

In this episode, we cover how the Cultural Revolution finally came to an end, how the period is interpreted both in the West and in China, and what effect the Cultural Revolution has had on Chinese society as a whole.

Intro: 00:00
Opening: 01:09
The end of the Cultural Revolution: 6:20
Interpreting the CR: 20:25
Aftermath of the CR and memory in contemporary China: 31:23
Outro: 41:25

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In this episode, we discuss the changes made to China's cultural realm during the Cultural Revolution. As the main target of the Cultural Revolution Group, cultural production including art, literature, theatre, and film were all subject to the new rules of the decade. But were those rules made to last? And were the CRG able to impose their will completely when they relied on the existing bourgeois cultural producers to cultivate their new vision?

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In this episode we look at how the economy and educational system fared during the Cultural Revolution decade. We discuss how a period of chaos led into a period of stagnation, where things neither got much better nor much worse. We also talk about differences between the countryside and the cities, and how every day life was irrevocably impacted by the social turmoil that occurred.

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