SL Advisors Talks Markets

European imports of LNG rose sharply following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago. The US was well positioned to step in and provided virtually all the additional LNG Europe bought. The current pause on new LNG export terminals runs counter to these trade flows, but it’s increasingly clear this policy has few supporters other […]

American coal exports are booming. Exports of thermal coal rose 26% last year, to 44 Million Metric Tonnes (MMTs). This is mostly burned to produce electricity. We also exported 46.5 MMTs of metallurgical coal, typically used in industrial processes such as steel manufacture. Shipments of thermal coal to India doubled, to 14.1 MMTs, close to […]

Earnings for 4Q23 are almost complete. Most companies came in at or a few per cent ahead of market expectations. Cheniere (CEI) beat sell-side estimates by 11%, continuing a remarkable run. They are targeting a 1:1 ratio between buybacks and debt reductions and based on their long run desired share count should be retiring 12-13% […]

Recently I’ve given presentations to a couple of investment clubs in Naples, FL. Usually I speak about midstream energy infrastructure, but I was also asked to expand on Our Darkening Fiscal Outlook, recently published on our blog, The Q&A is always enjoyable at such events. Below are some common themes that came up. Don’t weak […]

There are two ways in which our looming fiscal catastrophe draws closer. One is through the passage of time, as entitlements grow with more aging Medicare recipients. The other is through worsening projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Both are happening. Start with interest expense. In the CBO’s May 2022 ten year Budget and […]

Criticism of the White house pause on LNG approvals continues. Williams Companies’ CEO Alan Armstrong said it would cause some countries contemplating the construction of new LNG import facilities to hesitate. The clearest result will be increased coal consumption since it’s cheap and widely available across Asia. Shell expects LNG demand to increase by 50% […]

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last week. It confirmed the current trends of increased production, improving mix and declining CO2 emissions. Most notable is that coal production is continuing to fall. This year should see output 20% below 2022, at 470 Million Short Tons (MSTs). We use […]

We’ve received a lot of questions recently about the White House pause on approving new Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export terminals. Several projects are already under way, and the pause does not rescind approvals that have already been issued. So for example construction of NextDecade’s Rio Grande terminal is continuing, with permits already in hand. […]

It’s a question posed at every mid-cycle. Observers of commodity markets will often advise that the cure for low prices is low prices. Meagre profits reduce production, eventually curbing supply and driving prices higher. 2014 was the last cycle peak for energy. The shale revolution brought new US supplies of oil and gas onto the […]

Investors often ask us why crude oil prices aren’t higher. The industry has maintained capex on new production too low to sustain current production for years, without any apparent impact on prices. More recently, the Middle East has generated a plethora of  incidents which might be expected to cause consternation about the reliability of supplies […]