Poland has stopped producing fertilizer. Natural gas is a key input into the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers such as urea and Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN). The European energy crisis has rendered their manufacture uncommercial because of high natural gas prices, which are likely to persist for at least another year or so. Poland produces 6 […]

UK Prime Minister (PM) Liz Truss has reached “in office but not in power” in record time. On September 6th she met with Queen Elizabeth II and formally became PM. Two days later the Queen died, commencing a period of mourning that ended with the monarch’s funeral on September 19th. Practically speaking, that’s when Liz […]

The relationship between crude oil prices and pipeline stocks is a perennial subject – why do the toll-like features of midstream energy infrastructure sometimes fail to separate the sector from the vicissitudes of commodity markets? The truth is they move together more at certain times than others. The 2015 drop in crude caused by excessive […]

Recently Shell’s CEO commented that China had added more coal production capacity during the third quarter than Shell’s entire global energy production. It is a response to high prices. We don’t often write about coal because we’re not invested in it. Prices have more than doubled over the past year, although were lower in September […]

Tellurian (TELL) CEO Charif Souki is one of the more colorful executives in the energy sector. In his book The Frackers, WSJ journalist Gregory Zuckerman memorably chronicles his career from a “shaggy-haired Lebanese immigrant” who spent seven years in Aspen where he “skied and bummed around” to founding Cheniere, today’s leading exporter of US Liquefied […]

Although inflation has soared to levels not seen in forty years, expectations for future inflation have stayed remarkably low. This is evident in the bond market, where the spread between five year treasury notes and five year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) is 2.4%, implying average inflation of that level. The forecast over ten years […]

Midstream energy infrastructure lagged the market sharply following last week’s FOMC meeting with its revised dot plot. The odds of a recession have increased. Although infrastructure businesses have very visible cashflows, enough holders operate on a hair trigger that requires little inducement to sell. It’s doubtful you’ll see any revision to guidance as a result […]

“I have approximate answers and possible beliefs in different degrees of certainty about different things, but I’m not absolutely sure of anything.” Fed chair Jay Powell did not say this at his press conference on Thursday. It is attributed to American physicist Richard Feynman. But had Powell uttered these words they would not have seemed […]

The northern hemisphere winter is approaching, which means more opportunities for amusement or shock at New England’s masochistic energy policies. Massachusetts and neighboring states have denied themselves access to abundant US natural gas in the Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania by preventing the construction of new pipelines that would connect them. As with most initiatives embraced […]

The August CPI report that came out last Tuesday was the catalyst for a sharp market reversal. The headline number was a benign 0.1%, helped by falling gasoline prices. But the “core” number (ex food and energy) came in at 0.6%. There were several factors, but chief among them because of its high weighting was […]