The energy sector is leaving investors unimpressed. YTD the American Energy Independence Index (AEITR) is +5% and seems to be marking time. The S&P500, increasingly dominated by tech and AI exposure, is +13%. Long-time clients, having enjoyed several strong years, hope the better days will soon return. More recent investors demand to know what’s gone […]

Investors are routinely advised to incorporate some international exposure into their portfolios. This can be to add diversification or, in the case of emerging markets, to participate in faster-growing economies. For a US-based investor, this is at best a waste of time. Worse, it can introduce unneeded complexity, cost and poor returns. By investing in […]

I’m traveling in Italy and am not so distracted by the cultural and culinary delights to have overlooked the news on NextDecade (NEXT). I’ve watched the subsequent stock price fall with disappointment. They lowered EBITDA guidance on Trains 1-5 from $1.1BN (midpoint of prior $0.9-1.3BN) to $1BN, starting in 2030. Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) is […]

President Trump continues to heap pressure on the FOMC to cut rates, to the alarm of every economist and bond analyst. Central bank independence is the gold standard for western nations, the only way to assure that politicians don’t seek to juice growth synchronized with the election cycle. Fed chair William McChesney Martin Jr, who […]

Many years ago, when we were researching silver mining companies, I was fascinated to learn how insensitive production and consumption were to prices. Unlike gold, which is mostly held as an investment, silver has many industrial uses. Consumer electronics represents over a third of demand. Silver has few good substitutes and is a comparatively small […]

Goldman Sachs released a report last week forecasting that Brent crude will slip into “the low $50s” by late next year. It currently trades at around $66 per barrel, down $8 from its year-end level end and $11 over the past year. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in their most recent Short Term Energy Outlook […]

Now that we’re more than six months into Trump 2.0, comparisons with Trump 1.0 are spreading. For energy investors, Trump’s first term was a huge disappointment compared with the high expectations held by many when he took office. A year ago, as investors pondered the impact of a Kamala Harris presidency, we were often asked […]

Most LNG export terminals are built when three quarters or more of their liquefaction capacity has been pre-sold to customers. This ensures that the project will generate cash needed to repay its financiers, since there’s not much else you can do with it other than export natural gas. Buyers have to pay the agreed liquefaction […]

The other day I listened to an interview with the CEO of Anthropic, Dario Amodei, on an Economist magazine podcast. Anthropic is in AI safety and research. They write large language models for sectors including healthcare and financial services. Many people think AI will create such fundamental change that it will eliminate jobs across large […]

On Wednesday Energy Transfer (ET) announced plans to extend its Transwestern Pipeline from Waha in the Permian Basin in west Texas to Phoenix. The Desert Southwest expansion project will improve the egress of natural gas from a region where it’s often produced along with crude oil, which is generally more desirable. The pipeline will support […]