SL Advisors Talks Markets

The ending of many renewables subsidies in the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) is being hailed as a win for the oil and gas industry. The WSJ wrote, The Moment the Clean-Energy Boom Ran Into ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’, suggesting that oil production will benefit. But in reality it’s about electricity generation, and oil produced just […]

Around this time of year, I’m often asked if we celebrate July 4th. Since it is the anniversary of America’s Declaration of Independence, in Britain it receives scant attention. But I often note that had the war turned out differently I might not have emigrated to America in 1982. We have much to celebrate in […]

Our power infrastructure survived last week’s heatwave, which saw the PJM Interconnect system peak at an almost twenty year high of 160,560 Megawatts on June 23. Natural gas provided 44% of generation, with solar at 6%. The ISO-NE system that covers New England saw peak demand a day later. This was met 47% by natural […]

The Energy Institute’s (EI) Statistical Review of World Energy provides a wonderfully detailed view of what’s actually happening, mostly untainted by any political bias. The world is using more of all kinds of energy, raising living standards across the developing world. Hydrocarbons still dominate and will for the foreseeable future.  There’s still a tendency even at […]

This is the time of year when liberal news outlets warn of irreversible climate change. We spent a couple of days in Naples, FL which was, unusually, cooler than New Jersey. The daily afternoon thunderstorms that accompany hurricane season moderate the heat. When I first moved to New York from London in 1982 I remember […]

Conflict in the Middle East invariably leads to concern about disruption to crude supplies that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices duly rose once Israel launched its surprise attack on Iran. Around 20% of total oil consumption comes through this narrow waterway. It’s unlikely Iran could close it for long if at all.   […]

To trade the daily moves in the market is to be an armchair strategist. JPMorgan estimates the crude oil market reflects a 17% probability of a worst-case supply disruption out of the Middle East. Presumably an oil spike would hasten the war’s conclusion via US pressure on Israel. So Israel’s attacks on energy infrastructure are […]

When conflict occurs that might disrupt global oil supplies, portfolios that include an allocation to midstream energy infrastructure usually enjoy some modest protection. Crude traded up 14% on Thursday night as the Israeli attack unfolded. Some opportunistic hedging by producers trimmed those gains during the day. Energy stocks as usual responded positively. The effect on […]

All over the world plastics are manufactured using derivatives of crude oil. Along with cement, steel and fertilizer these are what Vaclav Smil refers to as the four pillars of civilization. Modern life couldn’t exist without them. Renewables are largely irrelevant to their production. Anybody who studies how we use hydrocarbons must conclude, as we […]

Venture Global (VG) continued its post-IPO recovery last week. Back in January price talk was above $50 which would have valued the company at double market leader Cheniere. Pushback from institutional investors reduced the IPO price to $25, but it quickly sank below this (see Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained). VG has earned a reputation for […]