On Wednesday during Q&A following Jay Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of Chicago, he warned that the near-term impact of tariffs is likely to be rising unemployment and rising inflation. The Fed’s twin mandate is one of maximum employment consistent with price stability. Powell said, “I believe that for the remainder of this year, we […]

Last week President Trump said the EU should close its trade surplus with the US by buying $350BN of US energy. The Administration’s spontaneous policy switches on tariffs have been unpleasant for investors. But at least for those exposed to the energy sector, there’s a gratifying consistency in that oil and gas are invariably part […]

Dimitri Alperovitch co-founded CrowdStrike, the cybersecurity firm whose faulty software update on the Windows operating system last year led to worldwide IT failures. Alperovitch was no longer with the company, having left four years earlier to launch a nonprofit called the Silverado Policy Accelerator. In April 2024 he published World on the Brink: How America […]

Last year luxury car sales in Singapore collapsed. Sales of new Bentley, Ferrari, Jaguar and Rolls Royce models were down by as much as three quarters compared with 2023. This wasn’t caused by an economic slowdown. Singapore’s government clamped down on money laundering. Most buyers of such cars are Chinese nationals. Car dealers are required […]

A new administration took office determined to change the economy’s direction with overhauled policies. The leader and key advisers huddled, drawing up their plans in relative secrecy. Once ready, they were unveiled with great fanfare, heralding a new dawn in economic stewardship. Markets, caught by surprise without having had the opportunity to assess them via […]

Americans did vote for tariffs when we elected Donald Trump. Many perhaps thought they’d be implemented with a clearer strategic purpose. I had hoped we’d use them to open up foreign markets such as the EU, reducing our trade deficit by exporting more not by importing less. And most voters probably weren’t voting for a […]

Which is a more important measure of an investment manager’s skill – the return on the first dollar invested at inception, or the return on the average dollar? Return since inception is widely used because it covers the longest period. If performance is reasonably consistent, both methods should tell the same story. That this is […]

$1.4TN is a huge sum by any standard. It’s more than Spain’s entire stock market capitalization and just behind Switzerland’s. It’s more than Indonesia’s GDP and not far below South Korea’s. This is the sum that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has committed to invest in America over the next decade. It’s probably the best […]

In recent years climate extremists have become adept at weaponizing the legal system in pursuit of their dystopian aims. The Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), which was built to move natural gas from West Virginia to Virginia, faced extensive delays with only a few miles left, because climate activists were able to persuade a judge to […]

There are few parts of America redder than Naples, FL.  Kamala Harris signs were nowhere to be seen last year. Florida has shifted from purple to red in recent years. A friend once received hostile comments from a local who noticed his Connecticut license plate, demanding that he not relocate but should keep his liberal […]