Monday 12th January 2026

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US rate cut expectations are starting to erode, even as jobs growth softens. Markets are beginning to question whether weaker payrolls really matter if inflation refuses to fall — and this week’s CPI and PPI will be critical in deciding that. But, as NAB's Ray Attrill points out, it depends on Trump's nomination for Fed chair. The delayed Supreme Court ruling on tariffs now looks set for Wednesday, adding another layer of uncertainty. And here at home, fresh Australian consumer spending data lands today, giving an early read on household momentum heading into year end. Welcome to 2026, which promises to be just as firey as President Trump’s first year in office.

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