Tuesday 23rd March 2026

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Phil asks NAB’s Sally Auld if we’re seeing a TACO trade as President Trump pushes back his 48-hour ultimatum by five days, citing productive talks with Iran that the Iranians claim aren't even happening. This glimmer of a potential off-ramp has seen oil prices tumble nearly 10% and US equities rally. Bond yields have also fallen but remain somewhat elevated on the assumption central banks will continue to adopt a more hawkish tone in response to persistent inflation risks. Also, anecdotal evidence of the impact of surging input costs on business confidence, and what to expect from today’s critical global PMI data and Japanese CPI figures.

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