As a year marked by fiscal uncertainty and shifting federal priorities comes to a close, state and local governments are grappling with structural changes. For a discussion of how federal retrenchment, artificial intelligence(AI)-driven growth, and sharply rising municipal market borrowing market will shape state and local finances in the year ahead, Penn IUR and the Volcker Alliance convened a panel of experts for “Special Briefing on the Outlook for 2026: How States & Cities Will Adapt to Wrenching Change” on December 16, 2025. William Glasgall, Penn IUR Fellow and Public Finance Adviser at the Volcker Alliance, and Susan Wachter, Co‑Director of Penn IUR, co‑hosted the Special Briefing. Panelists include: • Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management • Matt Fabian, Partner at Municipal Market Analytics • Eric Kim, Senior Director for U.S. Public Finance Ratings at Fitch Ratings NOTABLE QUOTES Slok: “The outlook for 2026 is actually beginning to look better and better. GDP growth will begin to accelerate over the coming quarters, and perhaps most importantly for this conversation and for muni bonds, the level of yields and the level of inflation are likely going to stay higher for longer, simply because we still have an inflation level that is at around 3%, not quite back to the Fed's 2% target.” Slok: “the trade war was dragging things down, but at the same time, AI and data center build-out was pushing things in the opposite direction” Slok: “the biggest risk to this outlook is that it comes with a likelihood that the Federal Reserve will have to come back and raise interest rates again.”  Fabian: “I am optimistic that issuance will continue to grow. We think that there's going to be another record year ahead of us in 2026, as far as dollars of bonds sold. We think that the market will internally remain well lubricated, with nice flows of investor cash into the sector.” Fabian: “bullish on issuance, bullish on distribution, less bullish on prices.” Kim: “Our sector outlook for U.S. state and local governments in 2026 is neutral. We expect credit conditions to be generally in line with the environment we saw in 2025. That doesn't mean it's entirely benign, and it doesn't necessarily mean things will be easy.” Kim: “our house view is still for economic growth. We don't anticipate a recession…but there’s definitely risk there. We're anticipating 1.9% economic growth for 2026, picking up a little bit in 2027 at 2.1%.” Fabian: “State and local governments will have the option of backfilling federal spending withdrawals, and that is likely to happen in many cases. State and local taxes rising in order to help pay for this is a given.” Kim: “There are going to be more challenges in having state governments really fill all the holes that are potentially going to be left.” Glasgall: “To paraphrase [Supreme Court] Justice Louis Brandeis in the 1930s, states are the laboratories of democracy. We're going to see different solutions emerge. AI is going to be part of this in delivering services. We're going to see different ways to deliver services at a lower cost… There are going to be a lot of opportunities for experimentation and creativity.”

The launch of ChatGPT in 2022 sparked an “AI arms race” with trillions of dollars in investment and

profound implications for productivity and employment. For a discussion of how generative AI and

related technologies are reshaping public sector operations, workforce needs, and infrastructure

planning, Penn IUR and the Volcker Alliance convened a panel of government, academic, and industry

experts for “Special Briefing on AI in Government—More Efficiency but Fewer Workers” on November

20, 2025.

William Glasgall, Penn IUR Fellow and Volcker Alliance Public Finance Adviser, Susan Wachter, Co-

Director of Penn IUR and Wharton professor, and our expert panel discuss the state of America’s

infrastructure and how some states are developing strategies to better identify and fund needed

investments.

Panelists include:

• Jon Hartley, Policy Fellow, Hoover Institution

• Leigh Palmer, Vice President, Google Public Sector LLC

• Megan Kilgore, City Auditor, City of Columbus, Ohio

• Howard Neukrug, Executive Director, The Water Center at Penn and Professor of Practice,

Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pennsylvania

• Thomas Sanchez, Professor, Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M

University

NOTABLE QUOTES Hartley: “As of the end of September, about 37 percent of American workers claim to be using generative AI at work.”

Hartley: “I think it's still a TBD in terms of what the overall labor market impact is going to be, but I

think we're just in some of the early innings of what's a much longer baseball game.”

Palmer: “We're just at the tip of the iceberg on the potential for this technology.”

Kilgore: “We need more GOATs—not sheep. People who are curious, courageous, and willing to climb

into unfamiliar terrain as technology reshapes how we’re constantly working and ultimately serving

the public.”

Kilgore: “We need to view building human infrastructure as well as investing in forward-thinking AI

technology as on the same level of vitality as investing in that traditional form of hard infrastructure…

Equally as important, governments have to start investing in the skills necessary to allow our public

sector leaders and our workers here to really use those tools well: data literacy, ethical reasoning, and

creative problem solving. I do believe AI will absolutely redefine public service.”

Neukrug: “AI-powered digital twins can simulate entire water networks, helping planners test

technologies virtually before real-world deployment, saving time and resources.”

Hartley: “Conditional on using generative AI to complete a task, roughly two-thirds of the time that

would traditionally be dedicated to that task is saved."

From the deteriorating Gowanus Expressway in Brooklyn, New York, to the aging dams that supply about 70 percent of California’s water, America’s public infrastructure is badly in need of fixing. The nation is estimated to have accumulated about $1 trillion in deferred infrastructure maintenance, and even more will be needed to rebuild or retrofit roads, water plants, schools, and electrical grids to withstand the punishments of increasingly extreme weather. William Glasgall, Penn IUR Fellow and Volcker Alliance Public Finance Adviser, Susan Wachter, Co-Director of Penn IUR and Wharton professor, and our expert panel discuss the state of America’s infrastructure and how some states are developing strategies to better identify and fund needed investments. Panelists include: • Geoffrey Buswick, Managing Director & Sector Leader in U.S. Public Finance, S&P Global Ratings • Camila Fonseca Sarmiento, Director of Fiscal Research, Institute for Urban and Regional Infrastructure Finance • Hughey Newsome, Chief Financial Officer, Sound Transit • Leslie Richards, Professor of Practice, City and Regional Planning, Weitzman School of Design and Former CEO of SEPTA • Fatima Yousofi, Senior Officer, The Pew Charitable Trusts. NOTABLE QUOTES Notable Quotes -Fatima Yousofi: “Just like we've seen with public pension underfunding in the past, these hidden costs can quietly accumulate for years until they really start crowding out spending priorities and straining government budgets.” -Fatima Yousofi: “Pew's research shows that states have accumulated more than $105 billion in unmet road and bridge repair needs since 1999. And at the same time, the EPA estimates that we might need to spend another $1.2 trillion over the next 20 years to modernize our drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater systems.” -Camila Fonseca Sarmiento: “In recent years, there has been an increase in the funding sources that are available to address deferred maintenance. I'm not saying that there is funding that is high for deferred maintenance. Actually, when we look into the 10 case studies, the funding that is allocated for deferred maintenance only covers 4% of the total need, so that is very low.” -Geoffrey Buswick: “In 25, we're on track for nearly $600 billion in municipal bond volume, and that is an all-time high mark after last year, which was also an all-time high mark.” -Geoffrey Buswick: “So, in the industry, we've become accustomed to federal government incentivizing capital projects through regulations, grants, project matching funds, but as these tools are being curtailed or cut at the federal level, more of the costs are likely to fall to other levels of government. This could further challenge this needed upkeep in spending. And at a time when the American Society of Civil Engineers is estimating about $3.7 trillion of capital needs above current funding levels over the next 10 years, simply to get to a level of good repair?” -Leslie Richards: “you can't maintain your way out of a 50-year-old fleet. At some point, the equipment simply needs to be replaced. And that's where the financial pressure comes in.” -Leslie Richards: “I often describe it this way, using capital funds for operations is like using your roof repair fund to pay the light bill. It keeps things working today, but the storm is still coming, and you need a strong roof. And SEPTA is not alone in this. Agencies all over the country are being forced into the same trade-offs.” -Leslie Richards: “we can't keep running 21st century service on 20th century equipment with 19th century funding models. We have to build a new approach, one that values reliability, transparency, and safety of the people who ride and operate these systems every day.” -Hughey Newsome: “agencies, as best as they can, have to think through how do you find other stable sources, given that, there's always going to be volatility coming from Washington.”

William Glasgall, Penn IUR Fellow and Volcker Alliance Public Finance Adviser, Susan Wachter, Co-Director of Penn IUR and Wharton professor, and our expert panel address the record-shattering boom in state and local borrowing even in the face of federal spending cuts and pressure on budgets.

How long the boom will continue in the face of conflicting federal, state, and local priorities will be the big question for investors and governments over the coming year. Panelists include:

• Matt Fabian, President, Municipal Market Analytics

• Fitzroy Lee, Deputy Chief Financial Officer and Chief Economist, Office of the Chief Financial Officer (OCFO)

• Vikram Rai, Portfolio Manager and Macro Trader, First New York and former Head of Municipal Markets Strategy at Wells Fargo

• Sheila Weinberg, Founder and CEO, Truth in Accounting and

• Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics.

NOTABLE QUOTES

Notable Quotes

-Mark Zandi: “This is the first time I can recall where all those indicators are screaming, we’ve got a problem.”

-Matt Fabian: “The Muni market has a chance to be part of the solution to make it not as bad as it might otherwise be.”

-Sheila Weinberg: “The strength in the bond market is impressive but potentially misleading…this heightens the risk to investors and to taxpayers.”

-Vikram Rai: “I never really believed the Fed was independent. I think there is an element of politics that goes on there… Once the President has control of the Fed, they can maneuver the yield curve.”

-Fitzroy Lee: “The downsizing would cost the District about $300 million in revenue losses per year, about 3% of our own source revenue.”

-Mark Zandi: “For every percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate, it adds about 10 basis points to inflation…and reduces GDP by 7-8 basis points.”

-Matt Fabian: “On the demand side, the Muni market has been functioning fantastically…So long as nominal yields are high enough, individuals will continue to buy the bond.”

Join William Glasgall, Penn IUR Fellow and Volcker Alliance Public Finance Advisor, and Susan Wachter, Co-Director of Penn IUR and Wharton professor and our expert panel as we address the rapidly darkening outlook for state and local budgets and what this means for policymakers, taxpayers, and investors. Panelists include Jonathan Womer, Director, Rhode Island Department of Administration; Emily Brock, Director, Government Finance Officers Association Federal Liaison Center; Shelby Kerns, Executive Director, National Association of State Budget Officers; Vikram Rai, former Head of Municipal Markets Strategy, Wells Fargo; Teryn Zmuda, Chief Economist, National Association of Counties.

As the widely adopted July 1 start of their new fiscal year approaches, many states are facing fiscal challenges that few governors were anticipating as they delivered their annual budget messages only a few months ago. Even though states started 2025 projecting healthy cash reserves of almost $300 billion, that cushion will be tested by the Trump administration's suspension of tens of billions of dollars in U.S. grants as well as potential cuts by Congress to federal Medicaid funds. A possible threat to the federal tax exemption on most municipal bonds, the impact of a global tariff war, and the rising likelihood of a U.S. recession will also further constrain state and local budgets even as several years of record post-COVID federal stimulus comes to an end.

Notable Quotes:

“Other budget pressures that states are grappling with right now include education and housing affordability. On the revenue side, we have a slowing economy, as well as the impact of tax reductions that have slowed revenue growth.” - Shelby Kerns

“State and local governments themselves bear 75% of the cost of infrastructure in this country, and we do that by design. We like to make capital decisions locally. But we need to have the market to underpin those streets, clean water, schools, affordable housing, and so much more.” - Emily Brock

“The real difficulty on the operational side for states right now is the uncertainty that’s coming out of Washington. As the [Trump Administration] proposes new executive orders, in particular cuts, and then the courts turn those around in a different way, you’re left with a lot of volatility from an operational perspective, trying to figure out how to plan and strategize going forward.” - Jonathan Womer

“Another challenge which I believe is facing the muni market is a liquidity crisis. I worry that we could see more broker-dealer exits from the muni market, which would hamper liquidity very adversely.” - Vikram Rai

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by Penn IUR and the Volcker Alliance, and made possible by funding from The Travelers Institute. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Cities around the world are facing a host of challenges. As the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development observed recently, "places are rethinking how to stay competitive on the global stage. Technological change, the green transition and shifting global value chains are reshaping local economies."

Join Eugenie Birch, Co-Director of Penn IUR, and William Glasgall, Penn IUR Fellow and Volcker Alliance Public Finance Advisor, as our panel of current and former global mayors examine what cities should do now to set their future agendas for growth and shared prosperity. Speakers include Steve Adler, former Mayor, Austin, Texas; Stephanie Miner, former Mayor, Syracuse, New York; Nasiphi Moya, Mayor of Tshwane, South Africa; and Jaime Pumarejo Heins, former Mayor of Barranquilla, Colombia.

Notable Quotes:

“Today, the (Barranquilla) waterfront gets 10 million people visiting a year, from all types of places, from all of the socioeconomic strata of the city. It paid for itself because when we reappraised the land around it, within seven years, we were able to recuperate the investment." - Jaime Pumarejo Heins

“As a city, we must be creative about how we fund our needs. We want to ramp up revenue collection, but we don’t want to do that without taking care of the root cause, which is economic growth.” - Nasiphi Moya

(Syracuse, New York, is currently facing) “a $27 million deficit—and that’s with a 2 percent tax increase. Normally, when this kind of thing happens, you would turn to the state or even the federal government to ask for help. But given the uncertainty that’s going on with the federal government, and this idea that there’s a recession, there’s not going to be that kind of aid coming through.” - Stephanie Miner

(The [Austin, Texas] city council is) “projecting a $13 million shortfall this year, projected to go up to $35 million in the next couple years. We have stagnant sales tax revenue and a property tax revenue constraint imposed by our legislature.” - Steve Adler

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by Penn IUR and the Volcker Alliance, and made possible by funding from The Travelers Institute. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

This Special Briefing is focused on the future of mass transportation under the new Administration and Congress.

Our expert panel discusses the upsurge in construction funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law as well as solutions to hundreds of billions of dollars in budgetary shortfalls facing transit networks from coast to coast.

Speakers include Leslie Richards, Professor of Practice at the University of Pennsylvania Stuart Weitzman School of Design and former General Manager & CEO of Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA), the fifth-largest U.S. transit system; Kurt Forsgren, Managing Director and Sector Lead for Transportation, S&P Global; Randy Iwasaki, President and CEO of Iwasaki Consulting Services, Inc. and former Leader of State and Local Transportation for Amazon Web Services; Polly Trottenberg, who recently served as Deputy Secretary of Transportation under Pete Buttigieg; and David Greising, President and CEO, Better Government Association.

Notable Quotes:

"All new administrations when they come in, of course, set new policy priorities, but I think this is the first time an administration has tried to cancel or rescope projects in mass that have already been awarded funding through a competitive application process." - Polly Trottenberg

"Septa's experienced a huge capital budget crunch as well. And obviously that comes into play with what Polly just described, with the discretionary funds and the uncertainty of what's getting paid out and will get paid out. And what's coming out through formula this year? Septa is facing over a 200 million dollars shortfall." - Leslie Richards

"They're preparing for the Olympics. And Mayor Bass has said that the Olympic trips will be not by car. And so they're making a tremendous investment in transit and the airports in LA. I think we have about 85 billion dollars worth of projects ongoing in Region 9, which includes 4 States, and the the only large project that's outside of California is the heart project in Hawaii. So there's investments in California and transit." - Randy Iwasaki

"The Democrats, at least on the Illinois Congressional delegation, wrote a letter to the office of management Budget a couple of weeks ago, just simply referencing the the suspension of spending on various programs already approved or anticipated. And they added it up and came up with about 1.9 billion dollars worth of programs." - David Greising

"So this sort of strength in taxes and tax support by system operators and by their policymakers and legislators, you know, has been a real strength for credit quality across the sector. In fact, we raised the ratings on about 7 transit operators just in November of last year to reflect the strength and growth that we've seen in this tax support sector." - Kurt Forsgren

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by Penn IUR and the Volcker Alliance, and made possible by funding from The Travelers Institute. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The first Special Briefing of 2025 offers a deep dive into the new President’s first month and the implications of new policies. Featured speakers include former US Representative Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA); Jeffrey Holland, Vice President, Research, Peter G. Peterson Foundation; Eric Kim, Senior Director, U.S. Public Finance at Fitch Ratings; Vikram Rai, Fixed Income Strategist, Head of Municipal Markets Strategy at Wells Fargo; Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo; and Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Economics.

Notable Quotes:

“The implications from a macro perspective could become very, very important for interest rates, especially, of course, if the layoffs begin to show up in the form of a high unemployment rate.” - Torsten Slok.

“State and local governments really need to take this moment to do an assessment of how the federal government, federal spending and federal tax policy, even the economic impacts, will affect their budget." - Carolyn Bourdeaux.

“So why does that matter? Well, high and rising debts crowd out savings and investment, which could lower future output and income relative to what would otherwise occur." - Jeffrey Holland

“Midwestern state economies could be particularly vulnerable to the imposition of blanket tariffs on imports from [Canada, Mexico, and China], and natural resource-rich states could face the most direct consequences from retaliatory tariffs by those nations. North Dakota, Louisiana, and Texas are the states with the most in exports to Canada, Mexico, and China as a percentage of their state GDP.” - Eric Kim

“State and local governments realize that they have to rely on their own sources to meet their projects and financing needs." - Vikram Rai

“The risks are decidedly to higher interest rates. The biggest risk is that we see a major sell-off in the bond market. The bond market feels incredibly fragile.” - Mark Zandi

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by Penn IUR and the Volcker Alliance, and made possible by funding from The Travelers Institute. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Major policy shifts in immigration, taxes, trade, energy, health care, and pandemic-era programs passed under the Biden Administration look increasingly likely with Donald Trump capturing the White House and his fellow Republicans taking control of both houses of Congress for the first time in two years. Our panel of experts share their views on what this sea change may mean for the economy and Federal Reserve, as well as the impact on states, localities, and the $4 trillion municipal bond market, including the possible elimination of the federal tax exemption on most muni bond interest.

Our panel of experts includes Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist, Apollo Global Management; Annie Linskey, Wall Street Journal White House Reporter; Former US Representative Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA); Eric Kazatsky, Head of Municipal Strategy, Bloomberg LP; and Teryn Zmuda, Chief Research Officer and Chief Economist, National Association of Counties (NACo).

Notable Quotes:

“The short version of what’s happening is that the economy is doing really well. GDP growth for the last two and a half years has continued to surprise from the upside. The big issue in financial markets and policymaking continues to be why did Fed hikes not slow the economy down more, why was GDP growth in the third quarter 2.8, and why is GDP growth in the fourth quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed, going to be 3.3.” - Torsten Slok

“The primary program that they (the White House) are working on which impacts states and localities is getting money out of the door for the CHIPS Act. It was a $39 billion program, about $30 billion of that is tied up right now in complicated negotiations between the government and companies, and so the Biden administration is working very hard right now to get those negotiations finished.” - Annie Linskey

“This brings me to the DOGE effort, and you have Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy out there pounding their chests about how they are going to make all these dramatic cuts. Well, most of us who have been around the block on budgeting know that it’s really easy to do this in the abstract, but it is very hard to do it when you are actually putting programs on the line.” - Carolyn Bourdeaux

“When we’re thinking about the effects of any administration and talking about policy changes, cost cuts could really be cost shifts. Sometimes programs are cut but you do have to think how the effect of that is carried out throughout communities.” - Teryn Zmuda

“Right now, state and local payrolls are at the highest levels they’ve been ever. We’ve had a 3% growth since the great financial crisis, and 2% growth since 2019. So, as efficiencies have come into the job market, technology has been embraced even by state and local governments, and payrolls has continued to expand.” - Eric Kazatsky

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The US economy’s extraordinary recovery since the darkest days of the COVID-19 pandemic has continued into the fall of 2025, with inflation retreating and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to keep jobs and investment humming along. Our expert panel discusses where the economy is growing fastest—and less fast—and what this means for state and local budgets and finances.

Our panel of experts includes Rochester (Minnesota) Mayor Kim Norton, Georgia State Economist Robert Buschman, Fitch Ratings head of US State ratings Eric Kim, and PIMCO Senior Vice President Tom Schuette.

Notable Quotes:

“We were very pleased that money came directly to the cities and local jurisdictions, so we didn’t have to go through a lot of time to get it through the state. It was very beneficial to get that money into our communities quickly, starting with ARPA and then the CARES Act funds.” - Mayor Kim Norton

“Since the last quarter before the pandemic, Q4 2019, Georgia real GDP growth has run 2.4% per year, on average, slightly better than the 2.3% average for the nation. And though we had our own soft landing in the first half of 2023, we’re up 3.5% since then, compared to 3% for the nation. Job growth has also outpaced the nation for most of the expansion.” - Bob Buschman

“Growth coming out of the pandemic has been very robust nationally, so strong in fact that it beats expectations month after month, quarter after quarter, year after year. I think most economists were anticipating a recession for about two years before finally giving up and accepting that the economic growth was simply going to continue, even with the Federal Reserve ratcheting up interest rates above 5%.” - Eric Kim

“I think in 20-plus years doing this at a rating agency and also on the buy side, I would argue that I’ve never seen the public sector so well-prepared for any turbulence or volatility on the revenue or expenditure side as they are right now.” - Tom Schuette

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.