With working from home persisting even as the COVID-19 pandemic wanes, the panelists discuss revitalizing downtowns by turning offices into homes. Attracting more people back to center cities to live as well as work is the key to increasing street life, bolstering commerce, and preventing further losses in municipal property and sales tax revenues.

Our panel of experts include Maria Torres-Springer, New York City Deputy Mayor for Economic and Workforce Development; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Earle W. Kazis and Benjamin Schore professor of real estate and professor of finance, Columbia University's Graduate School of Business; Amy Cotter, director of climate strategies, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy; and Heather Long, columnist and Editorial Board member, Washington Post.

As governors and mayors announce their spending plans for fiscal 2024, the panel of experts discuss state and local budgets in uncertain times.

Our panel of experts includes Shelby Kerns, executive director, National Association of State Budget Officers; Eric Kim, senior director, Fitch Ratings; Lauren Larson, director, Colorado Governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting; and Gabriel Petek, legislative analyst, State of California.

Notable Quotes:

Notable Quotes:

“People only think about the impact on state budgets when we are facing a recession, when it’s getting closer, when the risks are getting higher; I can assure you that state budget officers are always thinking about it. They’re always planning for it.” - Shelby Kerns

“We think states are well positioned for volatility. After the Great Recession states really had more than a decade to recover and learn the lessons about revenue forecasting and building up fiscal resilience. I think for the most part, they took that to heart and came into the pandemic with a solid set of tools to manage volatility.” - Eric Kim

“This is a really exciting time in Colorado. Our revenues last year were up 24% and as a benchmark, we are measuring our trendline from pre-pandemic and we are exceeding our pre-pandemic trend line....” - Lauren Larson

“But I do want to be clear: Our office is not saying that the state should never use reserves. If after solving the level of deficit that we estimate the problem has gotten worse or the economy is going into a recession, we would say that that is the time to use reserves and it would be warranted at that point.” - Gabe Petek

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Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

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Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The panel of experts discuss the future of downtowns in American cities as office vacancy numbers remain high and public transportation usage remains low.

Our panel of experts includes Howard Cure, director of municipal bond research, Evercore Wealth Management; Steven J. Davis, senior fellow, Hoover Institution, and professor of business and economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business; Tracy Hadden Loh, fellow, Anne T. and Robert M. Bass Center for Transformative Placemaking, Brookings Metro; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Earle W. Kazis and Benjamin Schore professor of real estate and professor of finance, Columbia University's Graduate School of Business; and Romy Varghese, politics editor, Bloomberg News.

Notable Quotes:

“There’s no one-size-fits-all problem or solution. In some cities and regions, these losses are quite urgent, and are yielding fiscal and operational crises in the very near term. In others, these impacts may take years to fully manifest, in part due to one-time federal financial aid.” - Tracy Hadden Loh

“Now there is widespread acceptance that remote work is here to stay and now they’re [city officials] focusing on different ways to bring people back into the downtown…It is going to take a really long time for these recommendations [to attract businesses] to be implemented and it’s really going to take a change in mindset because for so long, business came to San Francisco.” - Romy Varghese

“The stakes are higher now than they were before the pandemic with respect to getting the right mix of the right local policies. Cities that get it right, either by virtue of a well-functioning political system or just being endowed with amenities that people value – those cities are well-positioned to benefit from the shift to work-from-home.” - Steven J. Davis

“In the long run we are sort of going through this revolutionary change, which will take decades to play out and which will basically call for a major reallocation of space away from office to residential.” - Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

“You have a number of vacancies, you’re having turnover come in, and because of that, I think you really have to pay attention to the people who are applying and the quality of the people applying for these jobs.” - Howard Cure

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

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Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The panel of experts discuss issues including inflation, employment, housing, jobs, and the possibility of a recession, as we look towards the new year.

Our panel of experts includes Mayor Kate Gallego, Mayor of the City of Phoenix, Arizona; Emily Brock, director, Federal Liaison Office, Government Finance Officers Association; Natalie Cohen, president and founder, National Municipal Research; Julia Coronado, president, MacroPolicy Perspectives and clinical associate professor of finance, McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin; and Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody’s Analytics.

Notable Quotes:

“I've been serving as mayor since 2019, so COVID hit at the tail end of my first year. We then went into a very deep and very short recession and came out when Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) made a major announcement, our largest in city history that might be familiar to folks because President Biden was in Phoenix last week to celebrate TSMC.” - Mayor Kate Gallego

“The inflation numbers we've been getting, particularly one we got for the month of November, a couple of days ago, are pretty, pretty good. It feels like we're moving into the right direction.” - Mark Zandi

“Historically, when the Fed is raising interest rates, [it is] usually sooner or later in a recession. And so we are on that side of the cycle. The easing of policy, the support from fiscal and monetary policy is behind us now. We are seeing policy tighten on both fronts. It’s a small sample and there's been a lot of unusual elements to this cycle.” - Julia Coronado

“Now, on the prospect for the 118th Congress, which starts in January, obviously we have a split Congress. What some people negatively characterize is gridlock. We might actually positively characterize gridlock in the form of a calming down.” - Emily Brock

“The bottom line is in pretty good health across the board. On the revenue side, inflation actually on a nominal basis serves well on the sales tax side. On the property tax side, on the income tax side, and certainly also in the energy sphere on severance taxes. So those areas, again, it's nominal.” - Natalie Cohen

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Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

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Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The panelists discuss how Inflation has yet to be controlled, recession is looming, federal COVID-19 budgetary aid will soon expire, and working from home is decreasing demand for Center City businesses. What can be done?

Our panel of experts includes Greg David, director, business and economics reporting program, City University of New York Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism, and a contributor to The City, covering fiscal and economic issues; Shirley Clarke Franklin, former mayor, Atlanta, Georgia, and director, The Volcker Alliance; Heather Gillers, reporter, the Wall Street Journal; and Farhad Omeyr, program director of research and data, National League of Cities.

Notable Quotes:

“We observe that governments that rely heavily on only property taxes for their general-purpose expenditures, saw less turbulence in their budgeting after the shutdown of the economy because property taxes were inelastic, relatively speaking.” - Farhad Omeyr

“When I moved to Atlanta 50 years ago, the metropolitan area was 1 million people, and the state was 4 million. Today the metropolitan area is close to 6 million. The infrastructure that is needed to support a healthy community and healthy economy has really not kept pace.” - Sharley Clarke Franklin

“All the contracts with our unions either have expired or the last view will expire in the next month or two. We could get short term contracts instead of four- and five-year contracts. We could get contracts with reopeners, we could get one one-time upfront payments, because after all, we don't know if inflation is going to continue at this rate.” - Greg David

“Longtime Mayor Richard Daley underfunded the pension plans, just set aside far less money than really needed to be in those pension funds to meet future obligations.” - Heather Gillers

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

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Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The panelists discuss the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on state and local budgets, focusing on the opportunities and challenges that are on the road ahead.

Our panel of experts included Ben Beachy, vice president of manufacturing and industrial policy, BlueGreen Alliance; Sarah Gimont, associate legislative director for environment, energy and land use policy, National Association of Counties; Justin Marlowe, research professor, University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy; and Richard Prisinzano, director of policy analysis, Penn Wharton Budget Model, the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

Notable Quotes:

“This win-win approach to climate change that we see here is a rebirth of the US industrial policy.” - Ben Beachy

"The funding provided in the law is really going to be beneficial for community and economic development, areas in which counties play a critical role." - Sarah Gimont

"It creates all sorts of interesting and creative opportunities for states and localities and public utilities and pension plans and potentially even nonprofits foundations, other ways to get directly involved." - Justin Marlowe

"Our modeling and analysis basically says it has no meaningful effect on inflation, either increasing or decreasing." - Richard Prisinzano

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

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Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The panelists discuss the latest figures on inflation released on quarter 3 of 2022, and analyze the likelihood of stagflation and recession as these inflationary pressures continue to impact the US economy as well as the outlook for states and municipalities and their budgets.

Our panel of experts includes Alison Premo Black, senior vice president and chief economist, American Road & Transportation Builders Association; Beth Ann Bovino, US chief economist and managing director, S&P Global Ratings; Hughey Newsome, chief financial officer, Wayne County, Michigan; Gabriel Petek, legislative analyst, State of California; and Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody’s Analytics.

Notable Quotes:

“I don't see recession [in the] next six months or the next nine months, but now I have a 50/50 outlook by the latter part of 2023 going into 2024.” - Mark Zandi

“There's no question that in terms of infrastructure investment, there are a couple of things that the industry has been dealing with in terms of those construction projects. There's no doubt the increase in prices is definitely impacting [projects] as well as material availability.” - Alison Premo Black

“Our judgment was that historically speaking, it's been difficult for the Fed to navigate a soft landing when you have such a situation,” - Gabriel Petek

“We've been able to kind of store some nuts away for the winter; that was somewhat on purpose but also somewhat on accident,” - Hughey Newsome

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Even as the US recovers from the worst days of the COVID-19 pandemic, many cities continue to see substantial weakness in commercial office space utilization. The expert panel discusses research findings that reflect the slow return of employees to offices, which cities’ tax revenues may be most vulnerable, and what solutions are being deployed to adapt to the new workplace reality.

Our panel of experts includes Nick Bloom, William Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University, and co-founder, WFH Research; Andrew S. Rein, president, Citizens Budget Commission; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Earle W. Kazis and Benjamin Schore Professor of Real Estate, Columbia Business School; and Lauren Weber, reporter, the Wall Street Journal.

Notable Quotes:

“...there are four reasons why people have been going hybrid. The first is employees really like it. If you survey employees, which I’ve been doing in multiple waves, they report that getting to work from home 2-3 days a week is about the same as a 5-10% pay increase.” - Nick Bloom

“Office tenants have to make multi-years commitments when they sign a new lease, and what the data shows so far is about a 10% drop in revenue on all active leases between the end of 2019 and the end of 2021.” - Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

“380,000 Manhattan workers live elsewhere in New York State, so there’s a question of that shift in economic activity. Doesn’t hurt the state necessarily, but it hurts the city. Also, 380,000 live in New Jersey and Connecticut, and that is where that change in economic activity is going to hit the city fisc and the state fisc.” - Andrew Rein

“I think a huge issue is that many workers just feel that no one has made a case to them about why they should be back in the office, and I think that’s especially the case for younger people, who don’t necessarily want to be told what to do.” - Lauren Weber

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

In a Special Briefing hosted by the Volcker Alliance and Penn IUR an expert panel discusses actions states and municipalities are taking related to tax relief, if they will provide inflation relief or spur economic growth—or whether they will lead to shortfalls if rising interest rates end in recession, just as much of the pandemic aid is set to expire.

This Special Briefing features a panel of experts, including Alex Adams, budget director, Idaho; Beverly S. Bunch, professor, School of Public Management and Policy, University of Illinois Springfield; Howard Cure, partner and director of municipal bond research, Evercore Wealth Management and Shelby Kerns, executive director, National Association of State Budget Officers.

Notable Quotes:

“Lifted by federal support and unexpectedly strong revenue growth after the pandemic hit, rainy day funds hit a record of 13.5 percent of shared general fund expenditures in fiscal 2021.” - Shelby Kerns

“If you’re say cutting a gas tax within a state and that state uses the gas tax or leverages the gas tax to issue debt for basic transportation infrastructure needs, what happens when you suspend it?” - Howard Cure

“It’s not what you do in bad times, it’s what you do in good times that will set you up for success or failure in the future.” - Director Alex Adams

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

With the passage of the IIJA in November 2021, governments face the challenge of allocating more than $1 trillion of funding in a strategic manner that address both past neglected needs and paves the way for a sustainable future. Panelists discuss innovative solutions being pursued, roadblocks that are on the horizon, and the overall impact of this funding on the nation’s infrastructure and economy.

This Special Briefing features a panel of experts, including Patrick Brett, managing director and head, Citi Municipal Debt Capital Markets; Mayor Jorge Elorza, City of Providence, Rhode Island; Lauren Larson, director, Colorado Governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting; and Larry Parks, co-founder, Forethought Advisors.

Notable Quotes:

“When you consider that 80 percent of the nation’s infrastructure spending comes from state and local governments, this new federal funding is truly a gift that will keep on giving,” William Glasgall said.

“We have a lot of divided governments at the state level,” said Larry Parks, co-founder of Forethought Advisors, which provides strategic counsel and political intelligence to clients in financial services and other regulated industries. “Let’s say you have a Republican legislature in Michigan and a Democratic governor. Does Detroit benefit or not?”

“We’re expecting 120 programs to receive some type of money here, and that’s in ten of our state agencies, so it’s quite a coordination effort,” said Lauren Larson, director of the Colorado Governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting.

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.