With Congressional inaction on COVID-19 relief aid since the passage of the CARES Act in March 2020, panelists in this episode focus on how states and localities are addressing trillions of dollars in public employee retirement obligations as governments attempt to balance budgets amid the COVID-19 pandemic and recession.

This special briefing features a panel of experts, including Donald J. Boyd, co-director, State and Local Government Finance Project, Center for Policy Research, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs & Policy, University at Albany; David G. Lenze, economist, Regional Accounts, US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Timothy Little, director and lead analyst, US States, S&P Global Ratings US Public Finance; Stephanie A. Miner, former Mayor of Syracuse, NY, and Volcker Alliance Board Member; Herman B. Santos, Chairman, Board of Retirement, and Vice Chair, Board of Investments, Los Angeles County Employees Retirement System.

Notable Quotes:

“In the past, liabilities have been growing faster than state economies, but over the last five years they have been growing slightly slower.” - David Lenze

“When interest rates are this low, you have to have relatively risky assets to high-risk assets, or else you have to reduce your return assumptions.” - Donald Boyd

“So, while we are in good financial position at this point, my fear is that unless the federal government steps in and helps the local agencies we will be in serious trouble.” - Herman Santos

“Unhappy pension funds are unhappy each in their own way.” - Stephanie Miner

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Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

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Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

As governments look to balance budgets amid the stress of the COVID-19 pandemic and recession, panelists discuss potential further steps such as delayed infrastructure projects that may be seen barring any further passage of federal relief funding. With states and municipalities providing an estimated 80 percent of US public infrastructure investment, the panel also discusses how the slowdown on such projects may affect the economy, jobs, and the municipal market.

This special briefing features a panel of experts, including Alison Premo Black, PhD, senior vice president and chief economist for the American Road & Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA); Norman E. Brown, nonvoting member, Metropolitan Transportation Authority Board of Directors and legislative director, New York State Council of Machinists; Howard Cure, director of municipal bond research, Evercore Wealth Management; Robert Poole, director of transportation Policy and Searle Freedom Trust Transportation Fellow, Reason Foundation.

Notable Quotes:

“One thing to really keep an eye on is the situation with federal investment. The Fast Act ended on September 30th, but federal investment accounts for about half of all state highway program capital outlays.” - Alison Premo Black

“Finally, I think the idea of bringing private capital more into infrastructure in the US, through long-term P3s, has the potential to be bipartisan.” - Robert Poole

“In some ways, the MTA is a victim of its own success.” - Howard Cure

“In the age of COVID, having a system that relies so heavily on farebox recovery, dictates a system that is full of crowded trains.” - Norman Brown

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Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Navigating an unprecedented mix of challenges mayors across the US rely on innovative fiscal and managerial actions to navigate the lasting early impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and new challenges on the horizon. In discussing these actions panelists touch on the research on city fiscal conditions by Professor Reschovsky as well as a new national survey of municipal leaders by Engaging Local Government Leaders, Route Fifty, and other partners.

This special briefing features a panel of experts, including Linda J. Bilmes, Daniel Patrick Moynihan senior lecturer in public policy and public finance, Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University; Andrew Reschovsky, professor emeritus of Public Affairs and Applied Economics, Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Bill Lucia, senior reporter, Route Fifty; Andrew Rein, president, Citizens Budget Commission of New York.

Notable Quotes:

“A rough scaling up of these estimates to all local governments in the entire United States suggests revenue shortfalls this fiscal year of $103-$165 billion.” - Andrew Reschovsky

“Just over 60% of respondents said that capital projects would be the budget item most impacted by revenue shortfalls stemming from the Coronavirus. Among leadership positions the percentage of respondents who said so was even higher.” - Bill Lucia

“The Mayor (of NYC) has actually talked about, if we don’t get this $1 billion saved, we need to lay off 22,000 workers, or we need to borrow money. We think that is a false choice.” - Andrew Rein

“The best run cities that I’m working with are trying to quickly convert at least key portions of their budgets into activity-based budgets.” - Linda Bilmes

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Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Estimates mid-2020 forecasted budgetary shortfalls of as much as $1 trillion, with uncertainty surrounding how state and local governments would close the gap panelists discuss the steps that public officials are deploying for the recession and eventual recovery. Additionally, the panelists contemplate the prospect of further federal relief.

This special briefing features a panel of experts, including Natalie Cohen, president and founder of National Municipal Research; Elizabeth Kellar, senior fellow, Center for State and Local Government Excellence and director of public policy, International City/County Management Association (ICMA); Chuck Reed, former mayor, San Jose, California and special counsel, Hopkins & Carley.

Notable Quotes:

“During the Great Recession, State and Local Governments lost 720,000 over a period of several years, but we have already lost over twice that number of jobs in just two months, April and May of 2020.” - Elizabeth Keller

“Local governments are extremely creative at coming up with ways to shift money around and borrow from the future.” - Chuck Reed

“In the municipal bond market, in the first half of the year borrowing was actually up, by $25 billion. You might ask, let’s look at the March through June period, and borrowing was up by only $1.9 billion.” - Natalie Cohen

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Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

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Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

With unemployment remaining high in key service and tourism sectors, panelists discuss the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the labor market, the deterioration of the finances and credit outlooks of states and localities, and the role of further federal assistance and loans to governments, companies, and individuals.

This special briefing features a panel of experts, including Timothy J. Bartik, senior economist, Upjohn Institute for Employment Research; Matt Fabian, partner, Municipal Market Analytics; Marcia Van Wagner, vice president-senior credit officer, Public Finance Group, States Team, Moody's Investor Service.

Notable Quotes:

“The total job impact of these state and local spending cuts would be to reduce the total number of jobs in the national economy by about 5 million jobs.” - Timothy Bartik

“States are very highly rated, as are most local governments. That is because they have very strong management tools, that enable them to navigate difficult economic and fiscal times.” - Marcia Van Wagner

“In 2009 and 2010, we had about 150 payment defaults a year. So, we are not at this point projecting it will go back to that level, but we are having a rate of default that is similar for the first time.” - Matt Fabian

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Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

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Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

As debate on further federal economic relief and aid packages continues in Washington DC, as panelists meet to discuss the politics, probability, and possible shape of such a package. They also examine the likelihood of state and local fiscal distress, and how it may be addressed, especially if deliberations fail to result in timely and significant further funding.

This special briefing features a panel of experts, including Norman J. Ornstein, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; Robin Prunty, managing director and head of analytics and research for S&P Global Ratings—US Public Finance; Richard A. Ravitch, former New York State lieutenant governor and Volcker Alliance board member; Frank H. Shafroth, director of the Center for State and Local Government Leadership at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.

Notable Quotes:

“It is quite stunning to see an administration that has a studied indifference to everything else that is going on. It’s almost as if that is a chapter we’ve passed and are moving on to other things.” - Norman Ornstein

“Given the social distancing and the closure of large segments of our economy, we didn’t really see any sector in public finance that was going to be immune from this, and for the first time ever we revised our sector outlooks to negative on April 1st.” - Robin Prunty

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Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

While cities and states navigate the repeal of pandemic related restrictions amid demonstrations and civil unrest, panelists discuss the US economic outlook as a whole and the early stages of the need for the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSAA).

This special briefing features a panel of experts, including Austan D. Goolsbee, Robert P. Gwinn professor of economics at the Booth School of Business, University of Chicago; Dan Smith, associate professor of public policy and administration and director of the Master of Public Administration Program at University of Delaware; Juliette Tennert, Chief Economist at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah; Mark M. Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics.

Notable Quotes:

“If I’m right, May being the bottom, it’ll end up being the shortest recession in history, three months, March, April, and May. We’ve got business cycles dating back to 1854. But, it will end up being arguably the most severe.” - Mark Zandi

“The state’s revenue doesn’t depend on the rate of change it depends on the level.” - Austan Goolsbee

“In terms of the written letter of the law, few states have very strong no-deficit carry-over balance budget rules.” - Dan Smith

“There still has been a commonality among most western states that there has been tremendous economic growth over this last expansion.” Juliette Tennert

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Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

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Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

As states and cities have begun lifting restrictions set early in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, panelists discuss the challenges and opportunities facing US cities, especially midsized ones that face challenges in a changed economy.

This special briefing features a panel of experts, including Bruce J. Katz, distinguished fellow, Lindy Institute for Urban Innovation at Drexel University; Stephanie Miner, former Mayor, Syracuse, New York; Kim Norton, Mayor, Rochester, Minnesota.

Notable Quotes:

“The Federal Government, however, has not really, to date, used cities and counties and states as a distribution system.” - Bruce Katz

“This year, the largest portion of our budget is property taxes, but the second largest, outside of our Enterprise Fund, is the hotel tax.” - Mayor Kim Norton

“The biggest lesson that came out of the Great Recession is that the assistance has to be directed towards municipalities.” - Stephanie Miner

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

As some state and local governments face dire revenue projections in the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic shutdown, panelists discuss strategies that public leaders can explore to generate additional cash by improving management of their physical assets.

This special briefing features a panel of experts, including Michael A. Nutter, former Mayor, Philadelphia; Eric Berman, partner, Eide Bailly, LLP; Michael Imber, managing director at Conway MacKenzie, Inc.

Notable Quotes:

“The impact is even greater [than the 2008 crisis], the economic loss seems to be larger, and with no particular end in sight. As quickly as things shut down, it will take a while for them to ramp back up.” - Mayor Michael Nutter

“One thing that has become very, very evident as we have gone through this crisis, is that we have a tremendous digital divide in internet service.” - Eric Berman

“I think there is an expectation that governments are going to look for creative solutions to bridging their budget deficits this year and next.” - Michael Imber

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Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

After trillions of dollars in pandemic-related expenditures were addressed with the CARES Act, panelists forecast the role Congress will play in helping state and local governments address hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue lost by economic shutdowns triggered by the pandemic.

This special briefing features a panel of experts, including Early Blumenauer, Representative Third District of Oregon (D); William A. Galston, senior fellow at Brookings Institution Governance Studies Program.

Notable Quotes:

“From my perspective we’re dealing with a reality that is much worse than we thought, and is probably worse than we think. The lessons learned from the Great Recession, and more recently comments by Jerome Powell, is that we need to do more, and it needs to be bigger.” - Congressman Earl Blumenauer

“One of the items most likely to be included in any compromise package of assistance to various sectors and various segments of the country, will be aid to states and localities.” - William Galston

Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance.

Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org

Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu

Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn

Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.