Squawk Box Europe Express

The Fed’s March meeting minutes indicate policy makers might be willing to adopt a more aggressive tightening schedule than previously thought. FOMC members are broadly in agreement to slash $95bn per month from the balance sheet over three months, probably starting in May. Half-point rate hikes are also highly likely to come into effect in future meetings. U.S. equities fall as a result, while the 10-year Treasury yield hits a three-year high. Back in Europe, EU nations have stopped short of a consensus on banning Russian oil outright as Washington takes aim at the Russian financial system and President Vladimir Putin’s family. With just three days to go before the first round of the French presidential election, we speak to Laurent Jacobelli, Grand Est regional president for Marine Le Pen’s RN party, who says the country “needs and wants change” after President Emmanuel Macron’s five years in power.

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The U.S. moves to ban Russian investment and crack down on the country’s banks and state firms. Across the Atlantic, the EU launches a fifth round of sanctions aimed at coal exports and shipping. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy calls on the UN Security Council to launch Nuremburg-style trials to punish alleged Russian war crimes in his country. Meanwhile, U.S. and Asian markets take a dip, after Fed vice-chair nominee Lael Brainard indicates the central bank may seek more aggressive monetary policy tightening to combat inflation. And in China, the services sector has shrunk at its fastest rate in two years amid ongoing Covid lockdowns.

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Ukraine has accused Russian troops of war crimes after hundreds of civilian deaths were revealed in Kyiv satellite towns. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy has been joined by world leaders in condemnation of the alleged atrocities. European Union leaders promise more sanctions, while the bloc doubles down on its rejection of President Putin’s decree that all payments for Russian gas be made in rubles. The EU’s Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni has told CNBC that Brussels intends to strictly enforce energy contracts. Meanwhile, French electoral campaigns are heating up for May’s presidential vote. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron has seen his lead slashed with National Rally’s Marine Le Pen rising in opinion polls. In Hong Kong, CEO Carrie Lam has announced she will not seek a second term in office citing family commitments. And in autos news, Tesla reports a stellar first quarter, despite supply chain issues and a shutdown at its Shanghai plant.   

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Vladimir Putin issues a presidential decree to demand that “unfriendly” nations pay for energy bills in Russian rubles or have their supplies suspended. We are live on the shores of Lake Como where CEO of the European House Ambrosetti, Valerio De Molli, tells CNBC Europe’s energy strategy in the face of Russian aggression has been “naïve”. In the U.S., President Biden announces he will again tap American emergency oil reserves, releasing up to 1m barrels a day in a bid to calm pump prices. Investors are braced for today’s U.S. non-farm payroll job numbers as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge reaches a 40-year high. And, Beijing extends Shanghai’s staggered Covid lockdown, affecting manufacturing activity.

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Crude prices fall on news that President Biden will release the largest ever volume of strategic oil reserves – the third time in six months. There are intelligence reports that Russian military top brass is deliberately misinforming President Vladimir Putin about personnel and territorial losses in Ukraine. Chinese March economic data suffers a double-whammy in March with both manufacturing and services contracting for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. And in the U.S., markets are due to end Q1 following their worst performance since the start of 2020.

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Russian negotiators announce there will be a dramatic scale-back of troops around Kiev after Ukraine agrees to take a neutral position regarding NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees. The Istanbul talks are met with scepticism. U.S. President Joe Biden says he is adopting a ‘wait-and-see’ approach. U.S. markets, however, close higher on hopes of tensions easing. Following a short inversion of the 2 and 10-year yields, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker tells CNBC that the move does not accurately predict a coming recession. We also hear from Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio who says the West must maintain pressure on Moscow to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine.  

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Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says his country will not trade off its sovereignty but he hopes a ceasefire will result from today’s peace talks in Istanbul. U.S. President Joe Biden doubles down on his ad-libbed comments at the weekend regarding leadership change in Russia. G-7 nations have rejected Russia’s demand to be paid in rubles. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner says he will not stand for Moscow’s “blackmail”. Oil continues to plummet with Shanghai in its second day of lockdown while UAE energy minister Suhail Al Mazrouei tells this channel that Russia will remain a key player in Opec+. And the gap between the U.S. two- and ten-year treasury yields narrows to its lowest level since March 2020, raising recession fears.  

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Russia and Ukraine are set for renewed peace talks in Istanbul today. The White House battles the fallout from U.S. President Joe Biden’s Warsaw speech, denying it is targeting regime change in Moscow. We speak to TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyannée who says his company will not do business with Russian President Vladimir Putin but defends his refusal to completely write off the company’s Russian assets. Qatari foreign minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani says his country is boosting its gas exports to other nations as the Ukraine conflict continues.

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President Biden warns Russia of a strong response from NATO should it use WMDs in Ukraine. He touted the alliance’s renewed sense of unity, announcing fresh sanctions on Moscow and promising humanitarian aid to Kiev. The NATO, G-7 and EU meetings were dominated by talk of China’s tepid attitude to Russian aggression. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg tells CNBC that Beijing must join the international response in condemning the conflict. Washington has assured Europe of LNG deliveries by the end of 2022 and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz tells this channel that speeding up his country’s energy mix is key to moving away from reliance on Russia. We also hear exclusively from French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire, who says that the Ukraine conflict has ended the “happy, naïve” model of globalisation”.

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One month after the invasion of Ukraine, NATO leaders hold another emergency meeting in Brussels with new measures expected to be introduced. President Biden is to hold a series of summits with allies promising a serious reinforcement of the bloc’s eastern flank while NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warns of the long-term security consequences of the conflict in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded that all gas supplies to “unfriendly countries” must now be paid for in rubles. And, as Western sanctions and collapsing imports begin to take effect, the IIF has predicted that the war will cost Russia 15 years of economic growth. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy has called out French companies to quit their operations in Russia. Car giant Renault subsequently pulls out of the country and downgrades it margin outlook.  

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