Squawk Box Europe Express

The U.S. has banned all imports of Russian oil as sanctions against Moscow are tightened. President Biden has admitted that the move will impact Americans further at the gas pump. As Russian forces inch towards the Ukrainian capital, the director of the CIA, William Burns, warns of “an ugly next few weeks”. In the UK, the House of Commons is addressed by Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy who remains defiant, paraphrasing Winston Churchill in his speech. U.S. markets suffer another rollercoaster session, closing in the red. Gold surges on increased embargo and inflation fears. Meanwhile, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Starbucks have announced they are suspending operations in Russia.  

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Russia has increased shelling in Ukraine but says it has offered ceasefires in several regions to allow for humanitarian corridors to operate. Kyiv, however, says Russian forces have fired on fleeing civilians. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy remains in the capital and vows to fight on. U.S. markets closed firmly in the red with the S&P 500 posting its worst session since October 2020. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said an oil price embargo on his country could push crude prices to $300 per barrel, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz appears to cool on the prospect of a total import ban. German utility firm Uniper has written down €987m in Nord Stream 2 loan losses. 

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The U.S. and EU inch closer to banning Russian oil imports, sending crude prices to levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis. Asian equities plunge as a result with tech, consumer and autos weighing in particular. The Nikkei 225 posts its lowest level since late 2020. In Ukraine, President Volodomyr Zelenskyy accuses Russian forces on firing at civilian evacuation corridors in the besieged port city of Mariupol. Russian President Vladimir Putin says that a NATO-enforced no-fly zone above Ukraine would be tantamount to a declaration of war.  

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A fire at Europe’s largest nuclear plant rattles global markets after heavy fighting in Ukraine. Kyiv warns that an explosion at the site could dwarf the Chernobyl disaster ten times over. The U.S. activates its nuclear response team, and the EU’s Energy Commissioner, Kadri Simson, tells CNBC that targeting nuclear facilities would violate global regulations. We are live at NATO headquarters in Brussels as the alliance holds an emergency meeting in what will arguably be one of its most crucial days of diplomacy. And in the U.S. non-farm payrolls are set to show slowing job growth. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester tells CNBC that it’s critical the central bank gains control over inflation.  

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The Dow snaps a two-day losing streak and Treasury yields surge after Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirms that a 25-basis point interest rate hike is still likely this month. Crude prices soar to highs not seen in around a decade as OPEC+ nations refuse to veer from a previously agreed gradual output increase. Russia claims to have captured the southern Ukrainian city Kherson, the first of its offensive. But Kyiv disputes the Kremlin’s claims. Ratings agencies Fitch and Moody’s downgrade Russian sovereign debt to junk status, and Russian stocks are removed from the MSCI and FTSE Russell indices.

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President Biden holds his first State of the Union address, slapping Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime with the closure of U.S. airspace. He also announces an SPR release in a bid to re-balance crude prices which have hit their highest level in almost nine years. In Kiev, Russian airstrikes target the main TV tower as a huge convoy continues to crawl towards the capital. And China has indicated that it could provide mediation between Ukraine and Russia to reach a ceasefire.  

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Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, suffers sustained bombardment after yesterday’s peace talks in Belarus stalled and slowing Russian infantry advances reportedly frustrate Russian President Vladimir Putin. We hear from Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba who says every Russian rouble is now stained with his countrymen’s blood as the West intensifies sanctions on Moscow. French President has held talks with EU chiefs and also speaks to Putin and Ukrainian president Volodomyr Zelenskyy. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due in Warsaw and Tallinn later today. Equinor and Shell follow BP in exiting Russian JVs and Volvo, Daimler and Mastercard also suspend activities in the country in response to the invasion.

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Western allies launch a raft of new measures designed to hobble Russia’s economy following its invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions target the country’s central bank and lenders have been cut out of the SWIFT system. The rouble has collapsed to a fresh record low despite Russian central bank efforts. Russian President Vladimir Putin has placed his nuclear deterrent forces on high alert ahead of proposed negotiations with Kiev along the Belarussian border. BP has dumped its 20 per cent stake in Rosneft in protest at the invasion. The move has prompted fears of a $25bn write-down. We are live in Moscow and Przmyśl on the Poland-Ukraine border, with an eye on the humanitarian crisis brewing as Ukrainians flee the fighting.

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Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy says Russian bombing has resumed, targeting both military and civilians throughout the country. The nation’s health ministry reports 57 casualties and up to 170 injuries. Western allies have outlined a huge package of sanctions designed to hit up to 70 per cent of Russian banks. However, EU leaders stop short of cutting Russia out of the SWIFT payment system. We’re live in Kraków, Poland and in Moscow where President Putin has met with business leaders as the sanctions begin to take effect. Markets see a late reversal in the U.S. and oil prices stabilise, albeit at levels not seen since 2014.

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President Putin launches a military invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba tells CNBC “this is an attack on the world order” as Kyiv calls an emergency UN Security Council session. President Biden pledges severe sanctions against Russia, and the sentiment is echoed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who calls the attack “a dark day for Europe”. Markets sell off with Brent crude surging beyond the $100 mark, while the ruble tumbles to a record low versus the dollar.    

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