Squawk Box Europe Express

AI safety fears have dominated the sphere as Anthropic chief Dario Amodei's proposals to rein in development manage to unite bitter rivals Elon Musk and Sam Altman in support. However, U.S. president Donald Trump disagrees. Trump’s relationship with Fed Chair Warsh is set for a new test as investors eye a more-than 85% chance the central bank raises rates at its meeting this week while the President says the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates in the world. Oil prices notch fresh gains amid new strikes on Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz, which force Saudi to temporarily shut its East-West oil pipeline.

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The latest U.S. Treasury buyback disappoints which piles on the pressure to sell global bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield is inching towards 5 per cent. In oil news, WTI tops $100 for the first time since May as continued Iranian attacks on Gulf refineries and vessels attempting to pass out of the Strait of Hormuz drive raise concerns over an extended disruption to supply. The ECB bumps rates by a quarter point as energy price concerns steer the inflation outlook upwards.

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President Trump talks up America's "tremendous" success as he promises a 'dividend' to US adult citizens if the Republicans retain control of Congress - in a pledge totalling more than a trillion dollars. The 10-year US bond yield jumps to its highest level in three years as the Treasury Department announces plans to buy back up to 6 billion dollars in longer-term debt - triple the normal level. UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti telling CNBC he sees investor complacency as geopolitical and economic risks mount. Apple unveils its long-awaited foldable phone, with the 'iPhone Duo' coming in just shy of $2,000 in a major shakeup of its lineup under new CEO John Ternus. The ECB looks poised to raise rates at today's meeting, with traders pricing in a near 100 percent chance of a 25 basis point hike.

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Brent nears $100 a barrel as the conflict in the Gulf continues to flare. The IRGC says it attacked 2 American vessels and 8 oil tankers as retaliation for the U.S. targeting Iranian crude supplies earlier this week. Inflation fears rise as a result of surging energy prices, as do expectations of rate hikes from the ECB and Federal Reserve later this week. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey says the global economy is facing several upside inflationary risks. Wall Street closed Tuesday’s session in the red as AI models at several software firms come under scrutiny.  

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Mistral AI raises €3bn at a valuation of more than €21bn. The fund-raising round is among Europe’s largest ever. CEO Arthur Mensch tells CNBC that the move will accelerate future growth. Oil prices are at a six-week high with Brent crude nearing the $100-mark. Market sentiment reacts with the chances of central bank tightening looming. Chinese exports in August grow by 25 per cent while Canada’s counter-tariffs against the U.S. take hold.

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Germany’s AfD party wins a resounding election in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt with almost 45 per cent of the vote. Ulrich Siegmund, the candidate vying to be the state premier pledges the party will not compromise if it comes to power. Investors attempt to look beyond President Trump’s threat to cut off top trading partners if the Federal Reserve fails to cut interest rates. Markets have priced in a 60 per cent chance of a rate hike in September following August’s jobs data. Brent nears $100 a barrel as the U.S. and Iran engage in fire across the weekend. The U.S. military said it had targeted 3 Iranian oil tankers following missile launches at two American vessels.

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A new economic order for the AI era looms over talks at the European House – Ambrosetti Forum, as policymakers and business leaders gather at Lake Como. Equities rally and yields ease, while Norway’s sovereign wealth fund floats unwinding some of its Treasury holdings by roughly $80 billion. Today’s U.S. jobs report has traders locked in a dead heat, with CME FedWatch futures on the fence as investors look for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. And Volkswagen’s board approves an overhaul that will slash 50,000 jobs and halve its vehicle line-up after a tense standoff with unions.

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Treasury yields hover near multi-year highs as investors await Friday’s big jobs report for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. New York Fed President John Williams tells CNBC higher yields are not a signal of market dysfunction. Traders brace for possible ‘Yen-tervention’ as the dollar eases from a two-week high, raising speculation that Japanese authorities might once again intervene in the foreign exchange market. Washington secures a 'light touch' approach to AI regulation at a G20 technology gathering in North Carolina as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick tells CNBC any tariffs on the chip sector will be selective.

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The global bond rout deepens as fears over fiscal deficits and rising inflation fuel a multi-decade high in government borrowing costs. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, however, is not concerned. Oil prices continue to climb as the U.S. ramps up strikes on Iran, while Tehran retaliates with attacks on Gulf States. Volkswagen’s leadership will propose ending production at four German factories from 2031 at a meeting later this week. Speaking to CNBC, chief negotiator of the IG Metall workers union accuses the carmaker of going back on past agreements. In his first appearance at the House of Commons as the U.K. Prime Minister, Andy Burnham names Margaret Thatcher and Brexit as key reasons for the country’s stagnant growth.

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplays concerns as the global bond sell-off deepens with the U.S. 10-year treasury yield hitting a 20-month high. The G20 summit in North Carolina leaves European officials astonished at the Russian Finance Minister’s attendance, but Bessent says there will be no sanction relief until the war in Ukraine is over. Shein struggles in its Hong Kong IPO, as the valuation of the fast-fashion giant falls by some three-quarters since its private market peak in 2022.

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