Squawk Box Europe Express

New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks to CNBC at the ECB Forum in Sintra that the U.S. central bank will be looking at overhauling how it conducts monetary policy but insists that bringing down inflation will be his primary objective. OpenAI has reportedly hinted it may give a 5 per cent to the U.S. government in a bid to curry favour with the White House. Oil slumps to four-month lows after negotiators claim indirect U.S.-Iran talks have progressed well in Doha. Further talks may proceed as early as next week. And we are live at Canary Wharf with Squawk On The Road. We hear from Canary Wharf CEO Shobi Khan tells CNBC that despite global turmoil and presumptive Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s plans to shake up Westminster, London still remains a haven of stability for business.

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Europe and Wall Street notch their best quarter since 2020 with tech and A.I. stocks leading the gains. The energy sector continues to suffer amid Middle East uncertainty. The euro zone’s largest economies see June inflation slowing but Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey tells CNBC he is frustrated the conflict with Iran is still keeping prices high. We are live at the ECB Forum in Sintra hosting a headline panel. New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is due to speak as well. U.S. peace envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrive in Doha for negotiations but direct talks with Iran remain off the agenda for now. Meanwhile, Tehran says it is selling oil with a 20 per cent mark-up following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  

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We are live at the Sintra Forum where ECB President Christine Lagarde has backed the central bank’s decision to hike rates in June as necessary to rein in inflation. However, Lagarde insists ‘unconventional instruments’ are no longer needed since the last inflation shock. The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that President Trump does not currently have the power to remove Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud but could be granted them in the future. The U.S. and Iran present mixed messages ahead of peace talks in Doha. President Trump has reiterated his claim that the war has been won.

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The U.S.-Iran peace deal falters over the weekend but a U.S. official tells CNBC hostilities have abated with talks set to resume in Doha tomorrow. European and U.S. futures are up on de-escalation hopes but crude prices hover around the $70 per barrel mark. In autos news, Volkswagen announces it will cut 100,000 jobs. We hear from the CEO of Germany’s state-owned bank KfW Stefan Wintels who says the country is undergoing an industrial transformation. And in the UK, prime minister-designate Andy Burnham is to outline his economic outlook in Manchester today with devolution and a restructuring of Westminster to be top of the agenda.

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European equities end the week as Asian markets continue to sell off sharply. Apple and Microsoft announce price rises as the A.I. race constrains chip supplies and prompts concern over higher inflation. The UN’s International Maritime Organisation suspends vessel escort operations through the Strait of Hormuz following an attack on a container ship in the Gulf of Oman. U.S. officials have blamed Iran as the peace deal comes under early pressure. Following the resignation of UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, we hear from UK opposition party leaders who cast doubt on whether a potential Burnham-led government can turn around the country’s economic fortunes.

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Equities in Asia are boosted by the chip sector through positive earnings from Micron and SK Hynix’s announcement it plans a $30bn listing on the Nasdaq. Brent dips to levels last seen before the conflict in the Gulf as the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Futures indicate the world may soon be facing an oil glut. UK Prime Minister in waiting Andy Burnham is reportedly planning an overhaul of No.10 and the Treasury as part of his economic reform agenda. He is also seeking to overhaul the Bank of England’s mandate to push more demand on growth.  

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The global tech sell-off continues with U.S. memory and A.I. related companies firmly in the red as investors reassess the A.I. boom. Micron is set to deliver its results later today. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to its highest level since the start of the conflict in late February and U.S. President Donald Trump accuses oil companies of not lowering gas pump prices in line with falling crude. Secretary of State Marco Rubio lands in the UAE to reassure Arab allies since the Iran deal signing. Bank of America forecasts a triple hike from the Federal Reserve this year – up from its previous guidance of no hikes in 2026. It has slammed the central bank of its ‘unambiguously worse’ problem with inflation.  

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Britain will have a seventh prime minister in a decade following yesterday’s resignation by Sir Keir Starmer. Newly elected Makerfield MP Andy Burnham could be handed the keys to No.10 in less than a month time should no challenger step forward. SpaceX sheds almost half a trillion dollars of its market cap in Monday’s session with further sell-offs seen among other tech mega-caps. South Korea’s KOSPI triggers circuit breakers during the Asian session with Wall Street braced for more tech losses today. U.S. Vice President JD Vance hails peace talks with Iran in Switzerland as Washington waives sanctions on Iranian oil exports for 60 days. However, Tehran disputes claims it will be providing international nuclear inspectors access to its operations.

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Peace talks between the U.S. and Iran conclude in Switzerland for the time being with an agreement to reach a final deal within 60 days. The talks had been hampered by President Trump’s renewed threats to strike Iran and Tehran’s resealing of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude prices tumble following Iran’s announcement it would be resuming oil and petrochemical exports. Asian equities bounce on the news, led by Japan’s Nikkei index. Under-pressure UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer could announce his resignation as early as today with increasing numbers of Labour MPs calling for him to quit.

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Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, returning him to Parliament and setting up a leadership challenge against U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. In geopolitics, U.S.-Iran talks today are called off after U.S. Vice President JD Vance cancels his trip to Switzerland, as the administration hits back at criticism of the deal from both sides of the aisle. Meanwhile, OPEC welcomes an interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran, pushing back on forecasts of a supply glut following the conflict. Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais tells CNBC exclusively that OPEC still has the power to manage the market.

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