Stephanomics

What happens when you cross the U.S.-China trade war with the Christmas tradition of covering your home in lights, while tossing in a Nobel-winning economist for good measure?

Why, you get the year-end episode of Stephanomics, of course.

America slapped tariffs on holiday lights made in China, the world’s dominant supplier. So Bloomberg reporter Michelle Jamrisko went to Hanoi to find out whether the numbers are really true—the ones that show exports of Christmas lights from Vietnam are surging as a result. Clark Griswold makes a guest appearance in the podcast as well. 

Then, Stephanie Flanders brings you an interview with Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University. The Nobel laureate shares his thoughts on “progressive capitalism,” the theme of his upcoming book, along with Big Tech, the Green New Deal and just how bad the next recession might be.

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In recent decades, Chile has been marked by the relative stability of its economy and politics in a region where the opposite is more typical. But the widespread protests that began in October—and the violence and deaths that followed—shattered that image, exposing a rich-poor divide and broader social dissatisfaction that the government seems unable to address.

On this week’s episode, Bloomberg Santiago Bureau Chief Eduardo Thomson meets with protesters and economists to get at the roots of the conflict. Then host Stephanie Flanders turns to Felipe Hernandez, a Bloomberg economist covering Chile and Latin America, for a look at the impact of the demonstrations—and what they say about the entire region.

Also, days after the U.S. and China reached a partial truce in the trade war, Bloomberg News Trade Czar Brendan Murray joins Flanders to discuss what it means and what’s next. Spoiler alert: The trade war isn’t really over yet.

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On this special bonus episode, Stephanie Flanders joins the Bloomberg Westminster podcast to discuss the dramatic British election night.

The Conservative Party have won their biggest majority since Thatcher. Alan Wager from the UK in a Changing Europe tells Bloomberg's Caroline Hepker and Sebastian Salek what sort of Brexit he thinks Boris Johnson will pursue. Flanders, head of Bloomberg Economics, says new Tory voters in the north of England could be the worst hit.

Plus, TUC Leader Frances O'Grady explains why Labour lost. And Women's Equality Party Leader Mandu Reid says a record number of female MPs doesn't mean it was a good election for women. With analysis from Bloomberg's Therese Raphael, and Roger Hearing live in Westminster.

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Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman who died this week at age 92, was an imposing public figure—in height as well as stature.

He was best known for his bold moves in the U.S. war against inflation, and for his dedication to public service. But there was more to the man, as Bloomberg Markets editor Christine Harper discovered as she worked with Volcker to co-write his 2018 memoir, “Keeping At It.”

Harper joins host Stephanie Flanders to share her memories and observations of Volcker’s humor, hobbies and patience.

Also this week, Stephanomics explores what’s ailing India, which this year lost its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Moreover, any chance of regaining that crown looks like it’s slipping away, despite the efforts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. One reason: The gem and jewelry industry, which accounts for almost 7% of India’s economy, is suffering thanks to external forces like the U.S.-China trade war as well as a possible setback from the Indian government itself.

Anirban Nag reports from Mumbai on the sector, while Flanders digs deeper into the Modi agenda with Bloomberg economist Abhishek Gupta.

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Will the Conservatives loosen the purse strings and spur a growth revival? Can Labour realize its vision of radically reshaping the U.K. economy? How will the course of Brexit be altered?

Stephanie Flanders tackles these questions and more in a preview of Great Britain’s Dec. 12 vote to elect a new government.

Flanders leads a live-recorded panel discussion with three important thinkers: Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Bronwen Maddox of the Institute for Government and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe.

Then Bloomberg U.K. economist Dan Hanson joins Flanders for a closer look at the implications of three possible results of the election.

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What does the business of flashy superyachts for the megarich have to do with the health of the U.S. economy?

A lot, it turns out. They’re often seen as a barometer of consumer spending, and as the holiday shopping season gets in full swing, all eyes are on American wallets.

On this week’s episode of “Stephanomics,” Bloomberg reporter Michael Sasso visits a big boat show in Florida only to discover that sales aren’t looking so great. Then host Stephanie Flanders talks with Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg’s chief U.S. economist, about his somewhat downbeat macro view of holiday spending.

As a bonus, you’ll hear some additional insights from last week’s New Economy Forumin Beijing. Jorg Kukies, Germany’s deputy finance minister, talks with Flanders about the impact Brexit will have on Europe’s biggest economy.

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This week’s episode of Stephanomics comes to you from Beijing, where Bloomberg hosted the second annual New Economy Forum, bringing together global leaders to discuss how to solve the world’s biggest challenges. 

Stephanie Flanders first interviews Nicholas Stern, one of the world’s foremost experts on climate change and economics—a combined subject that’s gained increasing urgency for policymakers. Stern is a former adviser to the U.K. government and now chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics.

Then we have Zhu Min, a former senior official at China’s central bank as well as the International Monetary Fund. He joins Flanders to discuss key issues in the global economy as well as the U.S.-China trade war.

Finally, we’ll hear excerpts from a panel discussion on a Bloomberg Economics report called Drivers and Disrupters, addressing the forces threatening the world’s hottest economies. Speakers include Tom Orlik, Bloomberg’s chief economist, and former HSBC Chief Economist Stephen King.

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Beneath the tariffs, counter-tariffs and on-again off-again negotiations between the U.S. and China over trade policy, a deeper confrontation is brewing—one with potentially bigger consequences.

In a punitive, short-term move, the U.S. is preventing Chinese companies from using some American technologies. But longer-term, the tactic may trigger a “Silicon Curtain” behind which China develops homegrown tech to rival America’s.

Carolynn Look reports from China on how this is playing out for businesses big and small, and host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik about what it all means for China’s economy.

Then we switch gears, in more ways than one, and turn to a new list of the best (and worst) cities around for drivers. Flanders and Bloomberg economy editor Zoe Schneeweiss discuss what makes a metropolis great for automobiles. As it turns out, what’s good for driving can also be good for walking and bicycling.

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The 2020 U.S. presidential election may be a year away but one policy idea is already stirring fierce debate: a big-time tax on the richest Americans. Katia Dmitrieva reports on why Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren want to implement a wealth tax, and how it might work. Many economists have also been warming to the idea of taxing wealth. But you can't help noticing that most of the European countries that have tried wealth taxes have later junked them. Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg economists Johanna Jeansson and Maeva Cousin about the death of wealth taxes in Sweden and France and the possible lessons for the US. 

Then Stephanie talks with Frankfurt-based economy editor Jana Randow about two major milestones in the region: Christine Lagarde taking over as president of the European Central Bank and the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Randow -- the co-author of a recent book about outgoing ECB head Mario Draghi -- explains how Lagarde is likely to differ from her predecessor. She then shares her personal memories of November 1989 from the standpoint of a child growing up in East Germany.

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Economies represent the ultimate sum of millions of people and businesses making millions of decisions. And if enough of those businesses are frozen on how to respond to the U.S.-China trade war -- like the owner of a Los Angeles cosmetics company featured in this week's episode -- then the U.S. economy will be in trouble. Sarah McGregor, editor of Bloomberg's real-economy team, reports on how the businesswoman, Dara Venekeo, is being forced to consider whether to relocate her hard-built supply chains from China to another country, such as Vietnam.

The conversation on supply chains continues as host Stephanie Flanders visits Singapore this week and checks in with Asia economy reporter Michelle Jamrisko there on how the situation is playing out in Southeast Asia and particularly Vietnam. Stephanie also talks with Asia economy editor Malcolm Scott on how the China-dependent economies of South Korea, Australia and New Zealand might need to resort to unorthodox monetary measures to shore up growth.

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