Stephanomics

What will be the most surprising economic development of 2018? Who will be the most influential people that you haven't heard of? What kind of non-economic developments will have biggest impact? Benchmark delivers answers from around the world in part two of our year-end special. Joining Dan and Scott to give their picks are three members of Bloomberg's global economy team: European editor Jana Randow, Latin America editor Vivianne Rodrigues and Asia correspondent Enda Curran.

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What was the year's most surprising economic development? Who were the most influential people that you haven't heard of? What were the non-economic developments that had the biggest impact? Benchmark goes around the world to deliver the answers in part one of our year-end special. Joining Dan and Scott to give their picks are three members of Bloomberg's global economy team: European editor Jana Randow, Latin America editor Vivianne Rodrigues and Asia correspondent Enda Curran.

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America's GDP is growing at an amazing 3 percent! Unemployment is at the lowest level in 16 years! The stock market is reaching a new record high every day! The U.S. economy is just going to keep on booming, right? Well, not so fast. The stock market might be surging, but the bond market is painting a more nuanced picture. David Ader, chief macro strategist at Informa Financial Intelligence, joins Dan and Scott for a tutorial on Treasuries. 

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Wait! There wasn't a trade war this year. Wasn't Donald Trump's election supposed to mean a rejection of open commerce between nations? Bloomberg's Andrew Mayeda explains the surprise increase in goods and services exchanged across national boundaries. Don't think the protectionist bullet's necessarily been dodged; there's more going on than just Trump. Arancha Gonzalez, executive director of the International Trade Center tells Dan and Scott what more needs to be done. Gonzalez shares her perspective on China's expanding role in the international system and opines on Xi Jinping's big speeches in Davos and Geneva.

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For many women and an increasing number of men, it's been hard to get a job again if you take some time off for family reasons and have a long gap on your resume. But that's starting to change in the U.S., where the unemployment rate is at the lowest in almost 17 years. With the labor market getting tighter, companies are looking at potential workers they previously might not have considered. Carol Fishman Cohen, a consultant who helps companies develop programs for returning workers, shares her story of returning to work after having four children and talks about how she is getting companies to take a look at more workers like her. Bloomberg reporter Craig Torres also joins to explain the trend to Dan and Scott. 

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Money goes where it's treated best. That simple truth is a big reason why more and more money—trillions, in fact—flows into a powerful, low-cost tool that's quietly transformed investing in recent years. Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, let you invest in everything from the stock market to gold like never before. This podcast will demystify them—and delight you in the process.

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Benchmark takes the week off for the Thanksgiving holiday and re-runs an episode from March. Post-industrial Midwestern America helped propel Donald Trump to the nation's top job. You've heard that a hundred times. But did you hear about St Louis? A wave of Bosnian refugees, many of them Muslim, arrive in the city, starting in the mid-1990s. The result: a surge in business and job creation, revitalization of the community and help in the transition from a manufacturing to a service economy. Sadik Kukic tells Dan and Michelle about his journey from Balkan concentration camps to a pillar of the local community: He's now president of the Bosnian Chamber of Commerce. What could be more American?

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Figuring out the global economy has always involved looking at the data. But only in recent years has big data, such as that contained in satellite imagery, become a factor in helping understand what's going on. One place where it's particularly useful is China, where official figures are far less comprehensive than in the U.S. and most other developed nations. It's also provided badly-needed insight into poverty across Africa. Scott and Dan get the scoop from UC-Berkeley professor Joshua Blumenstock and Bloomberg China economy editor Jeff Kearns. 

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By picking Jerome Powell to replace Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve chief, President Donald Trump is making a historic gamble that his five predecessors did not: appointing a new leader of the central bank in his first term instead of retaining the existing one. That move could have massive ramifications for the U.S. and global economies. But how did the Fed get so powerful? And how powerful is it really? Peter Conti-Brown, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, joins Scott and guest host Chris Condon, a Federal Reserve reporter at Bloomberg, for a deep dive into the Fed's history and how Powell fits in. 

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Mexico just didn't see it coming. The free-trade backlash and anti-Mexican rhetoric that helped fuel Donald Trump's rise came as a surprise to officials and executives in the U.S.'s southern neighbor. Now they are scrambling to save not just NAFTA, but an entire economic model based around global supply chains and ever closer ties with the U.S. Thrown into the mix are elections in Mexico that could propel their own populists into the presidency and congress. Shannon O'Neil from the Council on Foreign Relations explains the stakes to Dan and Scott. Intriguing footnote: Maybe the NAFTA debate is really about China. 

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