SpaceX rallied 6% the week 911 million insider shares came unlocked—no crash in sight.

The lockup everyone feared hit on August 6, freeing up to 911.5 million insider shares and more than doubling SpaceX's tradable float. Conventional wisdom said that supply should sink the stock—instead SPCX closed up 6.1%. We break down why, and why December's larger unlock is the one that matters.

Then the July jobs report: payrolls fell 23,000 against forecasts near +80,000, while unemployment slipped to 4.1%—but only because hundreds of thousands left the labor force. We unpack why a lower rate is the bad kind here, and how a divided Fed reads a weak labor market with inflation still sticky.

Finally, Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness—down about 67% in July—doubled down with a $400M bet on stealth chip startup Source Foundry, valued at $5B and taking direct aim at ASML. Conviction, or desperation?

📅 New episodes every Thursday 6AM ET & Sunday 7PM ET — market prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.

SpaceX fell 14% yesterday, and this morning the insider lockup opens.

Elon Musk's SpaceX beat on revenue — $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year — and the stock dropped anyway. Capex was the problem: $18.37 billion in the quarter, $15.83 billion of it AI. Retail bought the dip regardless, making SPCX the most-bought US stock of the session.

Today the first tranche of insider shares unlocks. I break down what a lockup expiration actually does to a stock, and why SpaceX's unusually small 4% float makes this one different from a normal unlock.

Plus: Micron takes DRAM market share from Samsung and SK Hynix, and the S&P 500 posts back-to-back record highs as the AI trade comes back to life.

📅 New episodes every Thursday 6AM ET & Sunday 7PM ET — market prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

📊 Research tool I use — Stock Analysis (code STONK = 10% off first Pro cycle): https://stockanalysis.com/pro/?ref=brandon5b

📈 Charts — $15 off TradingView: https://tradingview.com/?aff_id=154886

🎧 Podcast: https://pod.link/1791475353 🐦 X: http://x.com/StonkcastShow 🛒 Merch: http://stonkcast-shop.fourthwall.com/collections/all 💸 Support the show: https://paypal.me/stonkcast

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⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.

📅 New episodes every Thursday at 6AM ET and Sunday at 7PM ET — market updates, prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

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A 25-year-old ran a $45 billion AI fund. Through June, he was up 439%. In July, he lost 67% — and sold the entire portfolio to Citadel to survive.

Three headlines dominated the last week, and they look unrelated. They aren't.

Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness collapsed from roughly $45 billion to $10 billion in thirty days after leveraged bets on memory chips, power, and neocloud names went the wrong way. His investor letter compared it to a bank run.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady at his second meeting with three dissents against him — and the bond market responded by sending the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.25%, its highest since 2007. Traders now price better than 70% odds of a rate hike in September.

And Iranian drones struck Kuwait and Bahrain, hitting Gulf energy infrastructure and pushing Brent crude toward $90.

The connection: oil feeds inflation, inflation feeds long-end yields, and long-end yields break crowded leveraged trades. Chipmakers just closed their worst month since 2008. The S&P 500 finished with its first negative July since 2014.

Market prep for regular investors. No jargon, no hype.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.

📅 New episodes every Thursday at 6AM ET and Sunday at 7PM ET — market updates, prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

💸 Support Stonkcast: If you're getting value, consider buying Brandon a coffee or helping cover production costs. 🔗 https://paypal.me/stonkcast

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The half of your portfolio that's supposed to protect you just stopped working. This week stocks and bonds fell together — and the "crash cushion" behind every 60/40 retirement account cushioned nothing.

We explain, in plain English, why the safe half of your money isn't safe anymore, and why the timing isn't a coincidence. Apollo economist Torsten Slok has warned the S&P 500 is now a concentrated bet on a few AI giants — a "single point of failure" — and this week that fragility got a live stress test as Big Tech cracked on AI spending.

Also on the show: oil back above $88 as the Iran conflict reheats and what it means for gas and inflation, the Core PCE number the Fed is watching, and the Apple and Amazon earnings that could tip the balance.

A clear, no-jargon read on a market that's more fragile than the headlines admit.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.

Full-time trader Kevin — "The Market Bishop" — returns to Stonkcast a year later for a no-hype conversation about how he's actually trading right now. We get into how he finds swing trade setups in this market, why he avoids ICT concepts entirely (and what he uses instead), his honest read on the AI trade, and where he sees the market heading into year-end — plus specific tickers on his watchlist for the week ahead.

Whether you're building your own swing strategy or just want a sharp look inside how an experienced trader thinks, this one's worth the listen.

In this episode:

• How Kevin finds swing setups right now
• Why he stays away from ICT — and his alternative
• The AI trade: real demand or overheating?
• His market outlook for the rest of the year

Follow Kevin "The Market Bishop": X: https://x.com/TheMarketBishop YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TailoredTrades

📅 New episodes every Thursday at 6AM ET and Sunday at 7PM ET.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.

📅 New episodes every Thursday at 6AM ET and Sunday at 7PM ET — market updates, prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

💸 Support Stonkcast: If you're getting value, consider buying Brandon a coffee or helping cover production costs. 🔗 https://paypal.me/stonkcast

📈 Level Up Your Charts: Get $15 off TradingView — the charting platform I trust every day. 🔗 https://tradingview.com/?aff_id=154886

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Two years ago Wall Street left Intel for dead. This week it posted its fastest revenue growth in over 15 years — a $16.13 billion quarter that beat by 12% and sent shares up as much as 13%. We break down the turnaround, the AI data-center engine now driving most of Intel's revenue, and the foundry losses the bears still point to.

Then the risk hiding in plain sight: the 30-year Treasury yield is nearing 5.2%, its longest run above 5% since 2007, with most global fund managers now expecting 6%. We explain why this "boring" bond number is the biggest threat to stock valuations, mortgages, and even Intel's rally — and how new tariffs add pressure.

We also preview this week's Federal Reserve meeting, where new chair Kevin Warsh is deliberately keeping investors guessing, and what a quieter, less predictable Fed means for volatility. Plus the mega-cap earnings gauntlet ahead.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.

📅 New episodes every Thursday at 6AM ET and Sunday at 7PM ET — market updates, prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

💸 Support Stonkcast: If you're getting value, consider buying Brandon a coffee or helping cover production costs. 🔗 https://paypal.me/stonkcast

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AMD just agreed to invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic, the maker of Claude, while Anthropic commits to buying tens of billions of dollars of AMD chips. We break down this "circular deal" — how these self-funding loops work across AI (Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI all do it), why they power the boom, and how to separate real demand from financial engineering, plus what it means for AMD versus Nvidia.

Then the opposite end of the market: AMC's "apes" are back after a record quarter driven by Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey," sending shares up 27%. We cover the blockbuster — and the heavy debt and negative equity the hype is ignoring.

We also dig into Alphabet's earnings, the first Magnificent Seven report of the season, including the accounting quirk that can make Google's headline profit look enormous thanks to paper gains on its AI startup stakes rather than its core business. Finally, the earnings gauntlet ahead across big tech.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.

#StockMarket #Investing #AMD #Anthropic #Nvidia #AIStocks #AMC #MemeStocks #Alphabet #Earnings #MidweekCheckIn #Stonkcast

📅 New episodes every Thursday at 6AM ET and Sunday at 7PM ET — market updates, prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

💸 Support Stonkcast: If you're getting value, consider buying Brandon a coffee or helping cover production costs. 🔗 https://paypal.me/stonkcast

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Semiconductor stocks just entered an official bear market, down 20% from their record — and the trigger is Kimi K3, a new open-source AI model from China that Wall Street is calling "DeepSeek 2.0." This week's Market Prep breaks down what Kimi K3 is in plain English, why cheap open-source AI threatens the AI spending boom, and what the original DeepSeek selloff teaches us about what could happen next.

Then: Apple is the world's most valuable company again. We walk through how the "behind on AI" narrative flipped into an AI-winner story, the massive analyst disagreement on the stock, and the billion-iPhone upgrade thesis.

Plus a SpaceX update — a scrubbed Starship launch, a break below the IPO price, and the float mechanics driving the wild swings — and your prep for a huge week: nearly 80 S&P 500 earnings reports, headlined by Alphabet and Tesla on Wednesday and Intel on Thursday, with the Fed in its quiet period before the July 29 decision.

Stonkcast — the market show for the average Joe.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.

📅 New episodes every Thursday at 6AM ET and Sunday at 7PM ET — market updates, prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

💸 Support Stonkcast: If you're getting value, consider buying Brandon a coffee or helping cover production costs. 🔗 https://paypal.me/stonkcast

📈 Level Up Your Charts: Get $15 off TradingView — the charting platform I trust every day. 🔗 https://tradingview.com/?aff_id=154886

🛒 Shop Stonkcast Merch: 🔗 http://stonkcast-shop.fourthwall.com/collections/all

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🎧 Listen On-the-Go: Catch every episode on your favorite podcast app. 🔗 https://pod.link/1791475353

SpaceX is down 33% one month after the most hyped IPO in history. On this Midweek Check-In, we break down how the space trade topped, why record money arrived at exactly the wrong moment, and what China's reusable rocket means for SpaceX going forward.

Then: SK Hynix hit the Nasdaq less than a week ago and Wall Street already wrapped it in 2x leveraged ETFs. We explain how these products really work, why they're built for traders (not investors), and what the leveraged-ETF explosion tells us about the AI trade — plus the TSMC earnings verdict.

Also on the docket: Trump's options for expanding military operations in Iran and what the Strait of Hormuz risk means for oil, energy, and defense names — and your map for the rest of the week: retail sales, jobless claims, Netflix earnings, Friday's data, and Fed Chair Warsh's first testimony.

Stonkcast — the market show for the average Joe.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.

📅 New episodes every Thursday at 6AM ET and Sunday at 7PM ET — market updates, prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

💸 Support Stonkcast: If you're getting value, consider buying Brandon a coffee or helping cover production costs. 🔗 https://paypal.me/stonkcast

📈 Level Up Your Charts: Get $15 off TradingView — the charting platform I trust every day. 🔗 https://tradingview.com/?aff_id=154886

🛒 Shop Stonkcast Merch: 🔗 http://stonkcast-shop.fourthwall.com/collections/all

🐦 Follow on X: 🔗 http://x.com/StonkcastShow

🎧 Listen On-the-Go: Catch every episode on your favorite podcast app. 🔗 https://pod.link/1791475353

Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed "until further notice," and the US responded with its third round of strikes this week — roughly 140 targets overnight, more than 300 since Wednesday. We break down what actually happened, whether the strait is truly closed, and what it means for oil, gas prices, and markets heading into the new week.

Then the corporate war: Apple's blockbuster lawsuit accusing OpenAI of a coordinated campaign to steal trade secrets for its AI hardware — including a retained MacBook, exploited server access, and job interviews allegedly used to extract Apple secrets. We explain the stakes for OpenAI's IPO ambitions and the fractured Apple-OpenAI partnership.

We also cover Meta's 15% surge — its best week since early 2024 — and how a platform pivot, a new coding model, and a custom AI chip flipped Wall Street's narrative on its massive spending. Plus the week ahead: June CPI and the kickoff of big-bank earnings.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.