Stonkcast

Tom from Crashout Capital joins Stonkcast to talk through the market as it actually sits right now. We get into the AI trade's second wind — what's driving it and whether this leg is different from the last one — plus the Fed setup heading into the fall and what a cut or a hold does to positioning from here. https://x.com/CapitalCrashout

📅 New episodes every Thursday 6AM ET & Sunday 7PM ET — market prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

📊 Research tool I use — Stock Analysis (code STONK = 10% off first Pro cycle): https://stockanalysis.com/pro/?ref=br...

🎧 Podcast: https://pod.link/1791475353

🐦 X: http://x.com/StonkcastShow

🛒 Merch: http://stonkcast-shop.fourthwall.com/...

💸 Support the show: https://paypal.me/stonkcast

Some links are affiliate/referral links — Stonkcast may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.

Nvidia just lined up $500 billion in Wall Street financing to fuel the AI chip boom.

Jensen Huang unveiled a plan to marshal $500 billion in debt — backed by Goldman, Blackstone, Apollo, KKR, BlackRock and Brookfield — so AI customers like Anthropic and OpenAI can keep buying Nvidia chips, with Nvidia itself backstopping up to a quarter of the deals. We lay out both readings: a powerful flywheel that locks in demand, or circular financing that inflates an AI bubble.

That connects directly to Anthropic's looming IPO, which could be one of the largest ever — reportedly valued off a projected $190 to $200 billion in 2028 revenue, roughly four times its current run rate. When a company is priced on numbers years into the future, we walk through what actually has to go right.

Then the reality checks: Wednesday's Fed minutes, with rates at multiyear highs and the market unsure whether the next move is a cut or a hike, and Thursday's Walmart results — the clearest read yet on whether the real consumer can support record-high stocks.

📅 New episodes every Thursday 6AM ET & Sunday 7PM ET — market prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

📊 Research tool I use — Stock Analysis (code STONK = 10% off first Pro cycle): https://stockanalysis.com/pro/?ref=brandon5b

📈 Charts — $15 off TradingView: https://tradingview.com/?aff_id=154886

🎧 Podcast: https://pod.link/1791475353 🐦 X: http://x.com/StonkcastShow 🛒 Merch: http://stonkcast-shop.fourthwall.com/collections/all 💸 Support the show: https://paypal.me/stonkcast

Some links are affiliate/referral links — Stonkcast may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.

JP — The Agent Trades — joins Stonkcast for a wide-ranging conversation on where the market actually stands right now.

We get into the Fed and what the path forward looks like from here, whether the AI trade still has room or is running on fumes, and how a two-decade swing trader is positioning for the next six months.

📅 New episodes every Thursday 6AM ET & Sunday 7PM ET — market prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

📊 Research tool I use — Stock Analysis (code STONK = 10% off first Pro cycle): https://stockanalysis.com/pro/?ref=brandon5b

📈 Charts — $15 off TradingView: https://tradingview.com/?aff_id=154886

🎧 Podcast: https://pod.link/1791475353 🐦 X: http://x.com/StonkcastShow 🛒 Merch: http://stonkcast-shop.fourthwall.com/collections/all 💸 Support the show: https://paypal.me/stonkcast

Some links are affiliate/referral links — Stonkcast may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.

SpaceX rallied 6% the week 911 million insider shares came unlocked—no crash in sight.

The lockup everyone feared hit on August 6, freeing up to 911.5 million insider shares and more than doubling SpaceX's tradable float. Conventional wisdom said that supply should sink the stock—instead SPCX closed up 6.1%. We break down why, and why December's larger unlock is the one that matters.

Then the July jobs report: payrolls fell 23,000 against forecasts near +80,000, while unemployment slipped to 4.1%—but only because hundreds of thousands left the labor force. We unpack why a lower rate is the bad kind here, and how a divided Fed reads a weak labor market with inflation still sticky.

Finally, Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness—down about 67% in July—doubled down with a $400M bet on stealth chip startup Source Foundry, valued at $5B and taking direct aim at ASML. Conviction, or desperation?

📅 New episodes every Thursday 6AM ET & Sunday 7PM ET — market prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

📊 Research tool I use — Stock Analysis (code STONK = 10% off first Pro cycle): https://stockanalysis.com/pro/?ref=brandon5b

📈 Charts — $15 off TradingView: https://tradingview.com/?aff_id=154886

🎧 Podcast: https://pod.link/1791475353 🐦 X: http://x.com/StonkcastShow 🛒 Merch: http://stonkcast-shop.fourthwall.com/collections/all 💸 Support the show: https://paypal.me/stonkcast

Some links are affiliate/referral links — Stonkcast may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.

SpaceX fell 14% yesterday, and this morning the insider lockup opens.

Elon Musk's SpaceX beat on revenue — $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year — and the stock dropped anyway. Capex was the problem: $18.37 billion in the quarter, $15.83 billion of it AI. Retail bought the dip regardless, making SPCX the most-bought US stock of the session.

Today the first tranche of insider shares unlocks. I break down what a lockup expiration actually does to a stock, and why SpaceX's unusually small 4% float makes this one different from a normal unlock.

Plus: Micron takes DRAM market share from Samsung and SK Hynix, and the S&P 500 posts back-to-back record highs as the AI trade comes back to life.

📅 New episodes every Thursday 6AM ET & Sunday 7PM ET — market prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

📊 Research tool I use — Stock Analysis (code STONK = 10% off first Pro cycle): https://stockanalysis.com/pro/?ref=brandon5b

📈 Charts — $15 off TradingView: https://tradingview.com/?aff_id=154886

🎧 Podcast: https://pod.link/1791475353 🐦 X: http://x.com/StonkcastShow 🛒 Merch: http://stonkcast-shop.fourthwall.com/collections/all 💸 Support the show: https://paypal.me/stonkcast

Some links are affiliate/referral links — Stonkcast may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.

📅 New episodes every Thursday at 6AM ET and Sunday at 7PM ET — market updates, prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

📊 The Research Tool I Use: Stock Analysis — free financials, screeners, and valuations for every ticker. Get 10% off your first Pro billing cycle with code STONK. 🔗 https://stockanalysis.com/pro/?ref=brandon5b 🏷️ Discount code: STONK (10% off first billing cycle)

🎧 Listen On-the-Go: Catch every episode on your favorite podcast app. 🔗 https://pod.link/1791475353

🐦 Follow on X: 🔗 http://x.com/StonkcastShow

💸 Support Stonkcast: If you're getting value, consider buying Brandon a coffee or helping cover production costs. 🔗 https://paypal.me/stonkcast

🛒 Shop Stonkcast Merch: 🔗 http://stonkcast-shop.fourthwall.com/collections/all

📈 Level Up Your Charts: Get $15 off TradingView — the charting platform I also use. 🔗 https://tradingview.com/?aff_id=154886

— Some links above are affiliate/referral links. If you sign up, Stonkcast may earn a commission at no extra cost to you — it helps keep the show running.

A 25-year-old ran a $45 billion AI fund. Through June, he was up 439%. In July, he lost 67% — and sold the entire portfolio to Citadel to survive.

Three headlines dominated the last week, and they look unrelated. They aren't.

Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness collapsed from roughly $45 billion to $10 billion in thirty days after leveraged bets on memory chips, power, and neocloud names went the wrong way. His investor letter compared it to a bank run.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady at his second meeting with three dissents against him — and the bond market responded by sending the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.25%, its highest since 2007. Traders now price better than 70% odds of a rate hike in September.

And Iranian drones struck Kuwait and Bahrain, hitting Gulf energy infrastructure and pushing Brent crude toward $90.

The connection: oil feeds inflation, inflation feeds long-end yields, and long-end yields break crowded leveraged trades. Chipmakers just closed their worst month since 2008. The S&P 500 finished with its first negative July since 2014.

Market prep for regular investors. No jargon, no hype.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.

📅 New episodes every Thursday at 6AM ET and Sunday at 7PM ET — market updates, prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

💸 Support Stonkcast: If you're getting value, consider buying Brandon a coffee or helping cover production costs. 🔗 https://paypal.me/stonkcast

📈 Level Up Your Charts: Get $15 off TradingView — the charting platform I trust every day. 🔗 https://tradingview.com/?aff_id=154886

🛒 Shop Stonkcast Merch: 🔗 http://stonkcast-shop.fourthwall.com/collections/all

🐦 Follow on X: 🔗 http://x.com/StonkcastShow

🎧 Listen On-the-Go: Catch every episode on your favorite podcast app. 🔗 https://pod.link/1791475353

The half of your portfolio that's supposed to protect you just stopped working. This week stocks and bonds fell together — and the "crash cushion" behind every 60/40 retirement account cushioned nothing.

We explain, in plain English, why the safe half of your money isn't safe anymore, and why the timing isn't a coincidence. Apollo economist Torsten Slok has warned the S&P 500 is now a concentrated bet on a few AI giants — a "single point of failure" — and this week that fragility got a live stress test as Big Tech cracked on AI spending.

Also on the show: oil back above $88 as the Iran conflict reheats and what it means for gas and inflation, the Core PCE number the Fed is watching, and the Apple and Amazon earnings that could tip the balance.

A clear, no-jargon read on a market that's more fragile than the headlines admit.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.

Full-time trader Kevin — "The Market Bishop" — returns to Stonkcast a year later for a no-hype conversation about how he's actually trading right now. We get into how he finds swing trade setups in this market, why he avoids ICT concepts entirely (and what he uses instead), his honest read on the AI trade, and where he sees the market heading into year-end — plus specific tickers on his watchlist for the week ahead.

Whether you're building your own swing strategy or just want a sharp look inside how an experienced trader thinks, this one's worth the listen.

In this episode:

• How Kevin finds swing setups right now
• Why he stays away from ICT — and his alternative
• The AI trade: real demand or overheating?
• His market outlook for the rest of the year

Follow Kevin "The Market Bishop": X: https://x.com/TheMarketBishop YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TailoredTrades

📅 New episodes every Thursday at 6AM ET and Sunday at 7PM ET.

💸 Support Stonkcast: https://paypal.me/stonkcast 📈 $15 off TradingView: https://tradingview.com/?aff_id=154886 🛒 Merch: http://stonkcast-shop.fourthwall.com/collections/all 🐦 X: http://x.com/StonkcastShow 🎥 Watch on YouTube: https://youtube.com/@stonkcast

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.

📅 New episodes every Thursday at 6AM ET and Sunday at 7PM ET — market updates, prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

💸 Support Stonkcast: If you're getting value, consider buying Brandon a coffee or helping cover production costs. 🔗 https://paypal.me/stonkcast

📈 Level Up Your Charts: Get $15 off TradingView — the charting platform I trust every day. 🔗 https://tradingview.com/?aff_id=154886

🛒 Shop Stonkcast Merch: 🔗 http://stonkcast-shop.fourthwall.com/collections/all

🐦 Follow on X: 🔗 http://x.com/StonkcastShow

🎧 Listen On-the-Go: Catch every episode on your favorite podcast app. 🔗 https://pod.link/1791475353

Two years ago Wall Street left Intel for dead. This week it posted its fastest revenue growth in over 15 years — a $16.13 billion quarter that beat by 12% and sent shares up as much as 13%. We break down the turnaround, the AI data-center engine now driving most of Intel's revenue, and the foundry losses the bears still point to.

Then the risk hiding in plain sight: the 30-year Treasury yield is nearing 5.2%, its longest run above 5% since 2007, with most global fund managers now expecting 6%. We explain why this "boring" bond number is the biggest threat to stock valuations, mortgages, and even Intel's rally — and how new tariffs add pressure.

We also preview this week's Federal Reserve meeting, where new chair Kevin Warsh is deliberately keeping investors guessing, and what a quieter, less predictable Fed means for volatility. Plus the mega-cap earnings gauntlet ahead.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.

📅 New episodes every Thursday at 6AM ET and Sunday at 7PM ET — market updates, prep, momentum plays, and trade ideas.

💸 Support Stonkcast: If you're getting value, consider buying Brandon a coffee or helping cover production costs. 🔗 https://paypal.me/stonkcast

📈 Level Up Your Charts: Get $15 off TradingView — the charting platform I trust every day. 🔗 https://tradingview.com/?aff_id=154886

🛒 Shop Stonkcast Merch: 🔗 http://stonkcast-shop.fourthwall.com/collections/all

🐦 Follow on X: 🔗 http://x.com/StonkcastShow

🎧 Listen On-the-Go: Catch every episode on your favorite podcast app. 🔗 https://pod.link/1791475353

AMD just agreed to invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic, the maker of Claude, while Anthropic commits to buying tens of billions of dollars of AMD chips. We break down this "circular deal" — how these self-funding loops work across AI (Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI all do it), why they power the boom, and how to separate real demand from financial engineering, plus what it means for AMD versus Nvidia.

Then the opposite end of the market: AMC's "apes" are back after a record quarter driven by Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey," sending shares up 27%. We cover the blockbuster — and the heavy debt and negative equity the hype is ignoring.

We also dig into Alphabet's earnings, the first Magnificent Seven report of the season, including the accounting quirk that can make Google's headline profit look enormous thanks to paper gains on its AI startup stakes rather than its core business. Finally, the earnings gauntlet ahead across big tech.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.

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