STRATEGIKON

John, David and Shaz ask Special Guest, CDRE Patrick J. Tyrrell on the implications of the Novichok nerve agent attack against former Russian spy & double agent, Sergei Skripal. 

Here's some interesting links on the Skripal case & its implications thus far:

http://www.news.com.au/world/europe/sergei-skripal-exrussian-spy-possibly-poisoned-through-bmw-vents/news-story/5b2cffd599116bc7805385ae1466fa68

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/russia-retaliates-against-uk-in-spy-poisoning-standoff-as-threat-of-real-war-looms/news-story/7b7cfa705c078fe683ad33e0a28f74cd

https://www.ft.com/content/10d8a266-2b99-11e8-9b4b-bc4b9f08f381

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/03/skripal-theresa-may-russia/555392/

https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/19/17139338/sergei-skripal-poison-russian-spy-uk

***

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Please find some interesting factoids on the year that was (2017):

Trump officially begins his presidency of the US 20/01/17

Within this time, there were just too many events to note here that could adequately describe the international devolution from the post-World War II order – but here is a very short timeline to show just how disruptive 2017 was:

JANUARY

Mexican-US relations plummeted due to Trump’s proposed Wall to prevent overland illegal migration from Central & South America to the US

Russia investigation begins

Bannon-Kushner war for influence over ‘Trump’s brain’

Trump’s War Talk against North Korea begins

FEBRUARY

Trump’s raid in Yemen

MARCH

Trump signs an executive order banning migrants from 6 Muslim majority countries

APRIL

Trump’s military strike against Syria

Turkey’s Erdogan moves out of US orbit and moves towards Russia

MAY

Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia

JULY

Gen. John Kelly tries to impose order on the White House, to varying degrees of success. Cannot stop the Commander-in-Chief from Twittering

Trump’s ‘bromance’ with Vladimir Putin

Trump increases targeted sanctions against Iranian entities

AUGUST

Bannon’s fall from grace and exit from the Trump team

OCTOBER

Canadian-US relations waver on Trump’s ambivalence over NAFTA

ISIS Caliphate collapses in Iraq and Syria

America’s lack of action over the Qatar Crisis leaves the Gulf States divided

Controversy over Niger ambush in which a US soldier was killed

Trump threatens to walk from the Iran nuclear deal

NOVEMBER

Korean ICBM missile test

DECEMBER

UK-US relations plummet due to British public antipathy over a proposed visit by the US president to the UK

Trump recognises Jerusalem as Israel’s undivided capital

Iranian mass demonstrations. Trump declares his support for protesters

Note, this is not at all an exhaustive list!

In this episode STRATEGIKON MC & SIA Research Assistant Ms. Shahrezad Ghayrat discusses the year that was and the road ahead for 2018 with Dr. John Bruni, CEO of SAGE International Australia & SIA’s resident existentialist philosopher, David Olney

***

Naval, Military and Air Force Club of South Australia

The Naval, Military and Air Force Club of South Australia was formed in 1879 as "The Militia Officers' Club of South Australia" in the old barracks behind the present State Library. In 1894 the name was changed to the "Naval and Military Club of South Australia" with the introduction of the South Australian Naval Officers. To fully reflect the membership of the time, "Air Force" was added in 1943. The Club has now grown to its current format of a much wider membership that embraces professional and business men and women, as well as serving and retired officers from all three services.
 
***

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Please find some interesting factoids regarding the history of Israel & the Occupation of Palestine & a link on PNAC (Project of the New American Century)

Jews were forced to leave Israel during the Roman occupation of ancient Judaea (70 CE). Surviving Jewish communities flourishing throughout the Mediterranean and within Europe.

Modern Israel was founded on the back of the NAZI Holocaust 1942-45.

Between 1945-47, an Exodus of surviving European Jewry to the British Mandate of Palestine, then a predominantly Arab land, linked up with existing local Jewish communities and began displacing local Palestinian Arabs which was capped off by the 1948 Arab-Israeli War – founding the state of Israel.

Palestinians displaced by the creation of Israel fled to neighbouring Arab states.

This Palestinian diaspora was called the Nakba. Arab & Muslim states became implacable enemies of Israel which they considered an illegitimate entity.

The Israeli victory over an Arab military coalition during 1967 War, Israel absorbed the predominantly Palestinian Jordanian territory of the West Bank, Arab East Jerusalem as well as the predominantly Palestinian Gaza Strip from Egypt – becoming the Occupied Territories. It also absorbed the Golan Heights from Syria.

Major Israeli-Palestinian peace initiatives include the 1993 Oslo Accord and the 2003 Roadmap for Peace – both of which supported a two-state solution with Occupied East Jerusalem forming the capital of a Palestinian state.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon pulled Jewish settlers out of the Gaza Strip in 2005. Jewish settlements in the West Bank started in 1968-77, expanding greatly from 1991 onwards complicating the idea of potential Palestinian territorial sovereignty under a two-state solution.
In 2015, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared Jerusalem the capital of the Jewish people.

Information on the Project for the New American Century can be found following this link - https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Project_for_the_New_American_Century

In this episode STRATEGIKON host, Dr. John Bruni discusses the implications of President Donald J. Trump’s decision to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s undivided capital with Dr. Imad Harb, Director of Research & Analysis at the Arab Center, Washington D.C. & SAGE International Australia’s resident existential philosopher, David Olney

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Some interesting links regarding MBS & Saudi domestic and foreign policy:

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, power behind the throne, BBC, 6/11/17 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-40354415

How the War in Yemen Explains the Future of Saudi Arabia, The Atlantic, 8/11/17 https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/11/saudi-arabia-iran-yemen-houthi-salman/545336/

Qatar blockade and Saudi Arabia: could there be a power shift in Doha? The Conversation, 5/11/17 https://theconversation.com/qatar-blockade-and-saudi-arabia-could-there-be-a-power-shift-in-doha-86592

Syria crisis: Where key countries stand, BBC, 30/10/15
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-23849587

In this episode STRATEGIKON host, Dr. John Bruni discusses the rise of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and his impact on the state of Saudi Arabia as well as the broader Middle East with Dr. Imad Harb, Director of Research & Analysis at the Arab Center, Washington D.C.

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Email: [email protected]

STRATEGIKON can also be found on the SAGE International Australia website:
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For more information from SAGE International Australia (SIA), follow SAGE International Australia on Facebook, twitter, and LinkedIn.

If you’re enjoying our podcast, please help us out by sharing and telling your friends. Many thanks!

Support the show: https://www.sageinternational.org.au/strategikon-merch/

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Some interesting links regarding observations on modern China:

Ikenberry G.J.,
The Rise of China and the Future of the West: Can the Liberal System Survive? Foreign Affairs, January/February 2008 Issue:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2008-01-01/rise-china-and-future-west

Luce E.,
The Changing of the Global Economic Guard, The Atlantic, 29/04/2017:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/04/
china-economy-populism/523989/

Former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating,
‘Changes our world forever’: Paul Keating warns of breakdown in US-China relations, news.com.au, 15/11/2017:
http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/
changes-our-world-forever-paul-keating-warns-of-breakdown-
in-uschina-relations/news-story/411bbe8fb9e946f54d0131d96d5f60ab

Dibb P. & Brabin-Smith R.,
Strategic Insights ASPI, Australia's management of strategic risk in the new era, 15/11/2017:
https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/2017-11/
SI123%20Australias%20management%20of%20strategic%20risk.pdf
?lUIbV_Q9FeuM_lYwudWYEqD9FfgmUS9x

"Communism with a human face" — a slightly amended version of 'Socialism with a Human Face" first termed by Czechoslovakian leader Alexander Dubček in 1968, calling for reform of the iron grip of the Czechoslovakian communist party.

Democratic Peace is a concept that argues that democracies do fight wars against other democracies. Its philosophical roots go back to 18th Century philosophers, Immanuel Kant & Thomas Paine.

***

In this episode STRATEGIKON host, Dr. John Bruni discusses Chinese international leadership in the international community. Has the West’s time come? Do Enlightenment values matter anymore? Or has autocratic capitalism, as represented by the PRC, replaced Enlightenment values and its sense of civilisational importance?

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A number of interesting articles regarding the Centenary of the Russian Revolution have been published. Below are a couple of links to the better ones we’ve found, including this visual anthology from American strategic forecast company, STRATFOR: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/100th-anniversary-russian-revolution-visual-anthology

http://theconversation.com/why-putin-is-shy-about-celebrating-the-centenary-of-the-russian-revolution-74394

http://carnegie.ru/2017/10/05/past-that-divides-russia-s-new-official-history-pub-73304

The English translation to the words of the song 'Revolution' by DDT:

Two fingers up – that’s victory!
And that’s – two fingers in the eyes.
We fight to the death on Tuesday for Wednesday,
But we do not understand Thursday. [0:28]
CHORUS
Is this world what we would like it to be? NO!
Do we believe that we can change it? YES!
But … Revolution, you taught us 
To believe in the injustice of good.
How many worlds do we burn per hour
In the name of your holy bonfire? [1:23, including musical interlude]
 
Human meat is sweet in taste.
Judases of the blockade winters know this.
What do you need for breakfast? Again Jesus?
Eat, but know this –  we will not forgive you! [1:36]
 
REPEAT CHORUS [2:31, including musical interlude]
And what should we do? About what are we singing?
Above whose shoulders is my head?
What is the price of an Afghan death?
If our life is not right? [2:45]
REPEAT CHORUS [4:32, including musical interlude and conclusion]

In this episode of STRATEGIKON, Dr. Jonathan Z. Ludwig, Visiting Assistant Professor of Russian, Oklahoma State University & Member of the Advisory Board, SAGE International Australia discusses with STRATEGIKON host, John Bruni the legacy of the 1917 Russian Revolution, one hundred years on.

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#DFAT #RUSIDSSAust #news #Politics #LowyInstitute #DFATinSA #DeptDefence #AustralianArmy #aus_media #Australian_Navy #Aus_AirForce #NZArmy #nznavy #NZAirForce #sipol #polsec #FDI_org #GPFutures #Stratfor #Defence_SA #dccommonsense #SamHarrisOrg

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Show Notes

In another explosive day in Washington DC, the Mueller ‘Trump-Russia’ Probe found its first two scalps – Trump 2016 campaign manager Paul Manafort & his deputy Rick Gates, both of whom were indicted on 12 counts ranging from money laundering to acting as unregistered foreign agents to the former pro-Russian Ukrainian government of Viktor Yanukovych. Presently, their alleged crimes and misdemeanours have nothing to do with the 2016 Trump campaign itself, therefore sparing the US President of any direct knowledge of their connections to Russian interests. For more information click on the following link: http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/10/31/ex-trump-aides-charged-russia-probe

The indictment of George Papadopoulos is another matter entirely. His connections to Russia during the Trump campaign seems likely to have been proved, and perhaps further investigations may reveal something more damning against the Trump White House, although only time will tell. For more information click on the following link: http://www.smh.com.au/world/trump-foreign-policy-adviser-george-papadopoulos-pleads-guilty-in-fbi-probe-20171030-gzbeft.html

In this episode of STRATEGIKON, Dr. Jonathan Z. Ludwig, Visiting Assistant Professor of Russian, Oklahoma State University & Member of the Advisory Board, SAGE International Australia discusses with STRATEGIKON host, John Bruni what the ongoing ructions in Washington means for America and for those countries, like Australia, whose strategic interest will likely be guided by ‘what comes next’.

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STRATEGIKON can also be found on the SAGE International Australia website: www.sageinternational.org.au

For more information from SAGE International Australia (SIA), follow SAGE International Australia on Facebook, twitter, and LinkedIn.

If you’re enjoying our podcast, please help us out by sharing and telling your friends. Many thanks!

Support the show: https://www.sageinternational.org.au/strategikon-merch/

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SAGE International Australia (SIA) Chairman of the Advisory Board, CDRE Patrick J. Tyrrell OBE RN (Ret'd) joins us this week to analyse the implications of the latest Russian military exercise ZAPAD 17.

What was behind this massive display of Russian military power? Was is designed to frighten a weak and dishevelled European Union, especially the former Soviet occupied Eastern Europe? Was it to send a message to Ukraine? The Baltic States? Or was this show of force simply part of ongoing Russian military modernisation. What, if anything does it say of Russian military capabilities?

CDRE Patrick J. Tyrrell OBE RN (Ret'd)

> https://www.sageinternational.org.au/about/management-board/

Links

> https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/31/world/europe/russia-military-exercise-zapad-west.html

> http://www.newsweek.com/how-russia-got-away-masking-war-game-more-40000-troops-676315

> https://jamestown.org/program/zapad-2017-lessons-learned-russia-implications-nato/

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STRATEGIKON can be found on iTunes, SoundCloud and the SIA website: www.sageinternational.org.au

> Today we are joined by Col. Sandy Wade OBE (Ret'd) to discuss the current situation on the Horn of Africa region.

> Col. Wade is an Associate at Africa Advisory Partners Limited, specialising in investment advice in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. This follows a recent career as a Defence Attache and then diplomat in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Recently involved in international and multinational work in diplomatic, electoral, peace and security, security sector reform, migration and communication strategy areas in Ethiopia.

> Among the many areas discussed: Kenya's upcoming (October 2017) presidential re-election; Ethiopia's internal dynamics and development; South Sudanese civil war; Refugees; Somalia and the Somali people.

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John, and Shahrezad (Shaz) in absentia, interrogate David on his theory that identifying and eliminating marginal losses from institutions and systems of public and private governance can lead to better organisations and to better organisational outcomes.

STRATEGIKON can be found on iTunes, SoundCloud and the SIA website: www.sageinternational.org.au

> What are 'marginal losses' and why is knowing about them important?

> Can organisations be improved by identifying marginal losses?

> What obstacles exist in current organisational thinking that would prevent the proper identification of marginal losses and why do they matter?

> Will artificial intelligence liberate organisations from 'legacy thinking', creating a better work-space?

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