CANEGROWERS Around the Paddock

Sugar Prices Are Below Cost So What Happens Next


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Sugar doesn’t need a headline to hurt, it just needs to sit below the cost of production for long enough. We’re back with the CANEGROWERS Marketing Information Service update for June 2026, and the message is blunt: prices aren’t where growers want them, shared pool add-ons are under pressure, and the market is still working through surplus supply from the last upswing.

We’re joined by Tom from Green Pool and Rob from Famarco to unpack what’s really driving the global sugar outlook. We talk Centre‑South Brazil’s huge crop and rising input costs, Thailand’s switch toward cassava and the production hit from disease, and why the EU could step down next season. On the demand side, we look at how China’s stronger production and Indonesia’s slow import permits change trade flows, plus how the Middle East conflict disrupts refinery buying and the usual stock-building behaviour.

For Australian cane growers, the practical issues land in the shared pool: softer Far East premiums, lower polarisation upside, and marketing costs that don’t fall just because the futures price does. We also get specific about forward pricing and risk management: what “time in the market” buys you, why knowing your cost of production matters more in a low-price year, and how to avoid backing yourself into a corner while you wait for the next cycle turn. If you’re watching El Nino probabilities and the Indian monsoon for a trigger, you’ll want these frameworks in your pocket.

Subscribe for the next market update, share this with a grower mate, and leave a review with your question: what’s the one signal you’re watching before you commit more pricing?

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CANEGROWERS Around the PaddockBy CANEGROWERS


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