Sully's Two Cents

In episode 16 we continue to analyze the players selected in the NFL Draft between the years 2010-2018 to determine their likelihood to have hit seasons. This week we take a look at the 278 Wide Receivers selected in the studied time frame.

In episode 14 I discussed the Quarterback position and specifically the hit rate of those quarterbacks drafted between 2010-2018. Today we are going to talk about the Running Back position. First just a quick reminder for how I determine who is a hit. The results are based on a 12 team league with PPR scoring, 4 points per passing TDs. I identified the hit rate as any player that has achieved a top 12 QB, top 24 RB, top 36 WR, or top 12 TE at any point in their career.

The data I have compiled allows us to identify how many players have accomplished this feat, how many have done it in multiple seasons and those who achieved hit status in their rookie seasons. In addition, the data identifies the importance of draft capital.

Since 2010 there have been a total of 703 skill positional players drafted; 107 QB, 191 RB, 278 WR, and 127 TE.

Typically, the best players go off the board early in the NFL draft, but does that translate to fantasy success? In a heavy defensive and lineman filled early round draft like we recently witnessed, the offensive skill position players are pushed down the board into later rounds.

Some years the top RB’s are drafted in the first round, some they are not drafted until the 2nd or 3rd. How do RB’s drafted in the first round measure up vs, RB’s drafted in the later rounds? This data will help us determine that.

54 of the 191 drafted Running Backs record at least 1 hit season, 28% of all QB’s drafted. 21 of those 54 have done it in more than one season and 20 running backs achieved a hit season in their rookie season.

Nine of the 191 have averaged a RB1 season over the course of their careers. These numbers support my start-up draft strategy of being heavy on the WR and then use rookie drafts to go heavy RB to round out my rosters. When we break down these players by the round in which they were drafted, we see the odds of hit RB’s become a little clearer similar to the QB position.

Since 2010, 14 of the 191 drafted running backs have been 1st round selections. A whopping 11 of them have recorded at least 1 hit season (79%). Six of those 11 have done it on more than one occasion and seven recorded a hit season in their rookie season (50%).

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ – DECEMBER 30: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Saquon Barkley #26 of the New York Giants celebrates a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys on December 30, 2018 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Cowboys defeated the Giants 36-35. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Of the seven rookies that had hit seasons; Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffery, and Saquon Barkley, they have all had multiple hit seasons except for Trent Richardson and Saquon. I’d say its safe to say that Barkley accomplishes this again in his second season. These 7 RB’s all recorded RB1 rookie seasons.

The data also shows that of all the RB’s drafted in the 1st round, only Mark Ingram recorded a hit season after his 4th season in the league. Ingram had a nice little run in his 5th, 6th, and 7th seasons. Gurley and Melvin Gordon have the opportunity to add themselves to Mark Ingram this season, and I believe that both have the opportunity to deliver a top 24 RB season with ease. Regardless the data proves what I have been saying since joining RotoHeat.com, running backs have a very short shelf life in this league.

It makes sense that the highly drafted RB’s have an impact early in their careers, teams draft these players base on need and the RB position is the easiest position of the skilled position to acclimatize to th...

One area, that hinders me as a Dynasty Owner, is valuing rookie draft picks quite simply, it is not my strength. I can typically determine which players in the draft class that I like, but how do I go about measuring these rookies to the players that are already in the NFL.

Every season I have myself questioning the value of my draft picks. Perhaps I am a Builder and I am hoarding these picks, or conversely, I am an All-In owner looking to turn those picks into assets that are usable now.

In an attempt to increase my knowledge, I decided to review all players drafted from 2010-2018. I recorded their results each season and determined what percentage of these players were a success, or as I will refer to them as a hit. So what does success look like and how do we determine if these players are a hit?

I have based the results on 12 team leagues with PPR scoring, 4 points per passing TD. Typically, the leagues I play in the most are 12 teams PPR 1 QB leagues, in those leagues we usually start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, and some flex positions.

With that in mind, I identified the hit rate as any player that has achieved a top 12 QB, top 24 RB, top 36 WR, or top 12 TE at any point in their career. The data also allows us to see how many players have accomplished this feat more than once and it also identifies player break out seasons. In addition, the data identifies the impact of draft capital.

Since 2010 there has been a total of 703 skill positional players drafted; 107 QB, 191 RB, 278 WR, and 127 TE.

Typically, the best players go off the board early in the NFL draft but does that translate to fantasy success. In a heavy defensive draft, like we recently witnessed, it pushes these skilled players down the board. Some years the top 3 QB’s are drafted in the first round, some they are not drafted until the 2nd or later.

How do QB’s drafted in the first round measure up vs, QB’s drafted in the later rounds? Well, we are about to find out!

18 of the 107 drafted Quarterbacks record at least 1 hit season, 17% of all QB’s drafted, and only 8 have done it in more than one season. 6 achieved it in their rookie season; Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Andrew Luck, RG3, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott.

When we dig a little deeper into these numbers and consider draft capital, we see the odds of hit QB’s become a little clearer, depending on where they were selected in the NFL draft.

24 of the 107 QB’s selected between 2010 & 2018 were first-round selections. Of those 24, 9 have recorded a hit season (38%). 4 of the 24 have done in more than one season (Cam, Luck, Blake Bortles, and Jared Goff), and 3 achieved a hit season as a rookie; Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and RG3). For those in Super-Flex leagues, there were an additional 8 QB’s that have recorded a top 24 season. The hit rate when considering the top 24 increases from 38% to 67%.

The 2nd round provides a smaller sample size than the first round as only 8 of the 107 quarterbacks selected, we taken in round 2. The hit percentage is similar to round 1 QB’s. 3 of the 8 recorded a hit season (Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, and Derek Carr). 1 QB has had multiple hit seasons and he did it in his rookie year (Andy Dalton). There was only 1 additional hit when factoring in the top 24 and that was Geno Smith. The hit rate when considering the top 24 increases from 38% to 50%.

In round 3 we start to see the impact of draft capital on the players potential for a hit season.

This week Sully talks about the rebuild, going all in and trades that you should be trying to make in both scenarios. 

Sully discusses the latest news and notes from around the NFL and shares 3 players that you should be selling ahead of the 2019 season.

A look at the new Head Coaches and Offensive Coordinators and their fantasy impact in their new surroundings is discussed

Sully chats about the 2017 WR Class will they or won’t they have a breakout 2019 season, and reviews the 2019 WR draft class offering his 2 Cents.

In episode 9 Sully reviews the 2017 RB class and compares it to the recent 2019 RB class

Sully is back and takes you through his winners and losers as a result of selections made by the 32 NFL clubs during the recently concluded NFL Draft

Sully discusses some recent signings, and shares some hot takes as we near the NFL Draft.