Talking Europe

For all the talk of "Trump-proofing" Europe, much remains to be done, and there are now only a few short months before the former president takes office again, following his dramatic comeback and resounding victory in the US election. We speak to Pierre Moscovici, who was European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs during the first Trump presidency. He identifies three major areas where the EU is likely to face headwinds – Ukraine, trade and climate action. Moscovici is now First President of the Court of Auditors, which is the highest body for auditing the use of public funds in France. In that capacity, he addresses the challenge of reducing France's huge public deficit.

Despite the unflattering things that Donald Trump has recently said about the European Union, Moscovici remains adamant that Europe "needs to build the best possible relationship with him. The best-case scenario is that we have a polite relationship; a transactional relationship. But Europe is not going to be Mr. Trump's priority. It never was, and it never will be. And there are major risks. What would Mr. Trump do with NATO? What would he do on Ukraine? He has said that he would create peace in 24 hours. That would mean in favour of Vladimir Putin. So we need to build our own diplomacy, our own foreign policy and our own defence – not against NATO, but so that we are capable of defending ourselves."

Moscovici warns that Trump could well try to play European states off against each other. "We could expect this new administration and this president to try to play on our divisions," he says. "Trump obviously has some advocates, like Mr Viktor Orban, who is the prime minister of Hungary and one of his admirers, and also one of his idols. We have Mr Robert Fico in Slovakia. We have far right parties here and there. This US election could inspire some political forces in Europe. So Trump could try to play on that. We need to overcome these divisions."

How should Europe handle to the tariffs that Trump has promised? "If we are facing an isolationist and protectionist threat, we need to be capable of responding," Moscovici answers. "The EU Trade Commissioner will negotiate for the whole EU, but member states also have to approve a decision. We're already responding to Chinese electric cars. We might have to respond to the US as well. Let's not anticipate too much. But let’s not be naïve either."

And on climate action, what does Trump's return to office mean for Europe? Moscovici points out that Trump withdrew from the landmark Paris climate agreement, and he supposes that Trump would "probably" do so again. "Trump also says he'll dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act (President Biden's landmark climate law). In a way, that's not bad for us, because we considered the IRA to be protectionist," Moscovici says. "But at the same time, the IRA was the US’s involvement in the global fight against climate change. Again, I think we must be prepared to have a strong common response, which is not anti-American. Mr. Trump is about 'Make America Great Again'. He's about American interests. We also have European interests. And those are not a matter of left or right. We have a common interest in Europe."

Moscovici insists that, for its part, France has to tackle its debt if it is to meet the big economic, geopolitical and environmental challenges that this moment in time calls for.

"Our debt is the highest – by expense – in Europe. It represents some 110 percent of GDP," Moscovici states. "We need to reduce our debt in order to recover some room for manoeuvre. What for? Precisely for investing. If we want to be capable of defending ourselves, we need to spend more on defence. If we want to be capable of tackling climate change, we need to invest in the greening of our industries. We cannot do that if we are too indebted, because we have no room for manoeuvre. And there are other points. For example, the Draghi report, led by the former Italian prime minister and former ECB chair Mario Draghi, proposed that we could have joint borrowing, as we did during Covid. But first and foremost, we need to do our homework. That means taking back control of public debt."

Programme prepared by Luke Brown, Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero and Oihana Almandoz.

Deadly floods in Spain and in central and eastern Europe, as well as devastating hurricanes in the US, are just some of the recent potent reminders of climate change. From November 11, world leaders are huddling in Azerbaijan's capital Baku for the COP29 climate conference, with the stated goal of stepping up climate action and offering more protection to those worst affected by this global emergency. 

The COP29 is being called the "finance COP", because of the growing needs of developing countries, and that is where Europe could play a significant role.

Meanwhile, the EU is now facing a new political storm: the return to the White House of Donald Trump, who will likely re-withdraw from the landmark Paris climate agreement.

We discuss the implications with two MEPs who are taking part in COP29.

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Perrine Desplats and Luke Brown.

With the US election just around the corner, is the EU prepared for what might be coming? And what does “being prepared” mean, exactly, when it comes to Europe’s defence capabilities? These are some of the questions we put to veteran French diplomat Pierre Vimont, who was ambassador to Washington during the presidencies of George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Vimont argues that the EU needs to develop much longer-term strategic thinking, whether on Ukraine and Russia, or China, or the Middle East, or the EU’s own near neighbourhood.

Vimont maintains that, on defence issues, Europe has been lagging behind for a long time. "When Donald Trump was first elected and started with his way of doing foreign policy, which was very difficult for Europeans, the then German chancellor, Mrs. Merkel, said, 'We Europeans have to take our destiny into our own hands'. That was 2017. Seven years later, where are we? We're still struggling with that," Vimont avers. "President Macron is talking about the need for strategic autonomy and many others are saying we need to have a European defence or even a European Defence Union. But we are still very far away from this. Because it’s a huge challenge. Remember President Obama's defence secretary telling the Europeans that they have to step up their act on defence? That was in 2008! So we need to discuss among ourselves where we want to go, and how we can be a stronger geopolitical actor."

Vimont wonders whether the EU has a clear idea of what its own long-term interests in Ukraine are.

"Europeans reacted rather efficiently after the Russian military intervention," he says. "We were able to come up with the kind of military assistance that was required, as well as humanitarian and financial assistance. And we have been doing that since then. Maybe not exactly to the kind of level that the Ukrainians would like, but still, we're trying to do our best. But we also need to look further down the road. How do we get out of the current conflict? We've been stating time and again that it is up to the Ukrainians to decide, and that is true. But we could have a conversation with the Ukrainian leadership and try to put forward what our interests are in this very difficult confrontation with Russia that Europe is facing."

Does that imply negotiating with Russia and tacitly accepting its control over some Ukrainian territories? 

"I wouldn’t go that far," Vimont answers. "But I'm saying that something has been missing in the EU's foreign policy for many years, which is a Russia strategy. For the last 15 to 20 years we've been trying to come up with such a strategy, but we're pretty much divided among the 27 of us. And because we know this is a divisive topic, we prefer not to talk about it and to just brush it under the carpet. I think we cannot go on like that, sidelining debates and conversations that are difficult for us."

In essence, Vimont believes the EU is not playing enough of a strategic long-term game, even when it comes to the recent decision to impose tariffs on Chinese electric cars. "You have to broaden the scope of your strategic thinking. In other words, it's not only about tariffs; it's about how do we behave in the Indo-Pacific region, what kind of diplomatic conversation we want to have with China, or with African countries, or with the BRICs – it’s about the kind of new world order we want to set up."

Vimont insists that the EU has lost diplomatic influence in the Middle East over the last 10 years.

"Ten years ago we faced the Arab Spring revolution, and we were faced with a totally new situation compared to the kind of Mediterranean policy we had pursued before. And as we haven't really managed to deal with this Arab Spring and its fallout, we slowly became silent and we slowly disappeared from the screen. And I think we have to regain a stronger position in that region because, after all, it's it's part of the neighbourhood of the European Union," he concludes.

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero, Oihana Almandoz and Luke Brown.

It's a ritual that happens every five years, and also a test for two of the EU’s key institutions. Once all the European Commission's new members have been designated, they go through confirmation hearings before the European Parliament. The parliament gets to flex its muscles vis-à-vis the EU executive and probe beyond the niceties of designates saying the right things about their commitment to European values. Getting through these grillings is not a foregone conclusion: last time, in 2019, three commissioner-designates were rejected. We ask our apnel of MEPs what they look for in a hearing, and if they see any of the current candidates as being particularly problematic.

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero, Oihana Almandoz and Elitsa Gadeva.

We speak to one of the most seasoned players on the European stage, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic. During his eight years in office, he has experienced the latter stages of the 2015-16 migrant crisis, the Covid pandemic, and the impact of the war in Ukraine, as well as overseeing his country’s entry into the eurozone and the Schengen free-travel area. We discuss topical issues in the EU as well as in his region, particularly EU enlargement towards the Western Balkans.

We ask Plenkovic if there is a fresh impetus for enlargement, in the light of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's tour of the Western Balkans, during which she touted a €6 billion growth plan to bring the region's economies and markets closer to the EU.

"I think there is a new political momentum," the Croatian premier replies. "The biggest promoter of enlargement policies is [Vladimir] Putin. Had he not invaded Ukraine, I don't think we would have seen the transfer of the neighbouring and partnership countries such as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia into a pool, which is called the enlargement process. Now we have many more countries who have the vocation to join and have applied for membership. So I think there is an acceleration."

We suggest that things are more complicated than that, as public opinion is not solidly behind the EU in all those countries, as the razor-thin "Yes" to EU membership in the referendum in Moldova just demonstrated.

"We have seen the influence of external forces in the debate, in hybrid warfare, in disinformation, and this often leads either to a fragmentation of the political spectrum or to a very clear polarisation. We have seen that in Moldova," Plenkovic answers. "So I think this requires even more pedagogy by political leaders. They need to be more aggressive and more clear, because it’s not easy to explain to society what the benefits [of EU integration] are. Especially in the countries that were more connected with Russia."

We ask about Serbia, which is a candidate to join the EU, and about the Serbian leadership's manoeuvring between the EU, Russia and China. "Unlike a majority of the other countries in our region, Serbia's level of alignment with the EU in terms of foreign and defence policy is between 50 percent and 60 percent," Plenkovic responds. "This means that they are playing this multi-vector approach: a little bit with Brussels, a little bit with Berlin, a little bit with Paris, a little bit with Moscow, a little bit with Beijing. If Serbia really, genuinely, wants to join the European Union, they will have to make up their minds, despite their historical ties with Russia."

We also discuss migration – a major preoccupation at the last Brussels summit of EU leaders. Asked about the controversial Italy-Albania accord aimed at sending asylum seekers in Italy to Albania, Plenkovic states: "We are reserved for the moment about this new initiative that Italy and Albania made. So far, as we understand, there are some legal issues that are difficult. So we need to see in practice how this pilot project will function. What we (in Croatia) advocate is full alignment of visa policies, because we have seen an unacceptable practice of people flying into Belgrade or to Sarajevo as tourists, without a visa requirement, and then they end up as illegal migrants trying to cross the so-called green border, for instance, to Croatia. Forty percent of the illegal migrants which are stopped by our police on our borders actually came to our region and want to enter Schengen and the EU through our border, by illegally crossing it in such a manner.”

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero, Oihana Almandoz and Elitsa Gadeva

Ask just about any EU leader who they want to win the US election on November 5, and you will hear a politically correct answer along the lines of “We will work with any US president to develop transatlantic ties”. However there is little doubt that many of them will be privately relieved if Vice-President Kamala Harris wins. She has drawn a clear line from her opponent, former president Donald Trump, on US engagement with the world and particularly on support for Ukraine. But it is not as if the current Biden-Harris administration has always been smooth for Europe: for example, the US Inflation Reduction Act and President Joe Biden’s AUKUS pact with the UK and Australia have created tensions. If Trump does indeed defeat Harris in November, could the EU still work out some sort of arrangement with him? We put this question to two MEPs.

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero, Oihana Almandoz and Luke Brown

As he nears the end of his term, Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, speaks to Talking Europe about the two crises that he has been most closely involved in: the Middle East and Ukraine. He recounts his efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and in Lebanon, and outlines possible ways to speed up EU assistance to Ukraine. His biggest regret over the past five years? Not being able to bring the EU's 27 member states to a common position on the Middle East. "It has been impossible to talk with a single voice because the positions are too different," he says.

Programme prepared by Luke Brown, Perrine Desplats, Oihana Almandoz and Isabelle Romero

European Union member states have narrowly backed import duties on Chinese-made electric cars, over what the EU considers to be unfair competition. Tariffs of up to 45 percent are set to be imposed from next month for five years. Chinese carmakers have criticised the EU's move, but are moving ahead with plans to expand in Europe and have so far not said that they will raise prices to cover the cost of the tariffs. However, the Chinese government says it is investigating some EU imports, such as pork or dairy products, from countries including Denmark, the Netherlands and Germany, as well as brandy and wine imports from France. That has sparked concerns of possible challenges at the World Trade Organization, and a worsening dispute between Brussels and Beijing. We delve into what's at stake with two MEPs.

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Luke Brown and Perrine Desplats

In this episode we take a look at life, war and politics in Ukraine, through the eyes of its most celebrated writer. Andrey Kurkov rose to international fame with "Death and the Penguin" more than 20 years ago, but he has many other novels to his name, including "The Silver Bone", which has just been published in English. It's the first book in his new series, the Kyiv Mysteries. Kurkov is very active in promoting the literature and culture of his country around the world, and he was travelling around Europe as he recorded this interview.

Kurkov reminds us of the human cost of the war in his homeland. "Ukraine is a very different country from 2021, because we are talking about 6 or 7 million refugees abroad, 6 or 7 million displaced persons, and 30 percent of the territory destroyed and empty. So people who are displaced or who are abroad very often don't have a place to come back to. And, of course, the other issue is 400,000 Ukrainian children who attend schools in Europe and outside Europe. I don't believe their mothers will interrupt their studies, or will take them away when the war is frozen or ended. Because they are already integrated in the societies where they live."

Kurkov says there are "lots of parallels" between 1919, the year in which his latest novel "The Silver Bone" is set, and the present day. "The aim of the Bolsheviks is the same as the aim of Putin today. He says that Ukraine does not exist, that Ukrainians don't exist. And he wants to take Ukrainian territory, with or without Ukrainians, back into a new Russian empire. And this was actually the aim of Lenin. This was the aim of the Bolsheviks. And they captured Kyiv four times between 1918 and 1921, showing incredible violence, just the same level of violence that you could see in 2022."

Read moreZelensky’s ‘victory plan’: Is the war in Ukraine reaching its endgame?

Kurkov writes in Russian, but he admits that people don't feel like buying his books in Russian in Ukraine. Instead, they read him in Ukrainian translation. We ask him about this hostility towards the Russian language.

"I accept the situation because it's the Russian language which was used over centuries to suppress and remove Ukrainian from the Ukrainian territory," Kurkov responds. "Russification was also the policy of the communists in the 1940s, 50s, 60s, etc. I grew up in Russian-speaking Kyiv, where if you heard Ukrainian on the street, you would think this is either a nationalist or a peasant. So the Ukrainian language should come back and it is coming back now."

Still, Kurkov would like to see "the return of Ukrainian tolerance", he concedes. "We have Russian-language poets and writers who are keeping a low profile, and who are marginalised or ignored by the majority. But they do exist and this enriches the culture."

Watch moreUkraine, Putin ... and Trump: What lies ahead after US election?

Kurkov also comments on President Volodymyr Zelensky's recent visit to the US, and his seemingly awkward meeting with Donald Trump, in which the latter reminded Zelensky that he has "a very good relationship" with Vladimir Putin.

"Trump will try to reject everything that will come from Zelensky because he wants to have his own plans and he wants to force Ukraine to accept his plans," Kurkov says.

Asked if people around him are worried about Trump potentially winning the US election and returning to the White House, Kurkov answers: "I would say that the intellectuals in Ukraine are very worried about this. Of course. They are more sympathetic to Kamala Harris. Although Kamala Harris recently didn't answer the question about membership of NATO for Ukraine. But she is predictable. Trump is completely unpredictable. That makes people nervous in Ukraine."

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats and Isabelle Romero

France's debt has reached a record €3.228 trillion, amounting to 112 percent of GDP. That is well above the cap set by EU rules. Of course, France isn't the only member state to have racked up debt during the Covid pandemic and the energy crisis. Several countries have been reprimanded by the European Commission for breaking budget rules. But because the French economy is one of Europe's largest, France's EU partners are watching the situation nervously. So how and where should the country make savings? In this debate with two MEPs, we draw on the experiences of other countries, including the "frugal" Netherlands.

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero and Luke Brown